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In early January support for the new John Key National Party-led Government is 55.5% (up 1.5%) with  National Party support 48% (up 1%), Maori Party 3.5% (up 1.5%), ACT NZ 3% (down 1%) and United Future 1% (unchanged) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted January 2 — 18, 2009.

Support for the Opposition Parties is 44.5% (down 1.5%) — Labour Party support is 33% (up 1.5%), Greens 8% (down 1.5%), NZ First 2.5% (down 0.5%) and the Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at a record high 148 with 67% (up 4%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 19% (down 1%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

During the same period, the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating has started 2009 with a rise, up 3.6 points to 103.7.

Gary Morgan says:

“The New Year has started well for New Zealand Prime Minister John Key with a record high number of New Zealanders (67%, up 4% saying that New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction.’

“The tax cuts and incentives provided to business by the new Government have been a good start, but more support for New Zealand business is needed to pull New Zealand out of recession.

 “The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Thursday and must continue its rate-cutting campaign by cutting a further 1.5% off New Zealand’s high interest rates.

“Only with co-ordinated fiscal and monetary policies to promote growth will New Zealand emerge from recession.”

Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,922 electors from January 2 — 18, 2009.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Finding No. 4353 is taken from Computer Report No. 2275

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

Finding No. 4353 is taken from Computer Report No. 2275

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