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ALP (61.5%) strengthens lead over L-NP (38.5%)

Finding No. 4363 - This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of February 21/22 & February 28/ March 1, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,845 electors.: March 06, 2009

The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekends of February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 shows support for the Rudd Government has strengthened in the wake of the Opposition cabinet reshuffle. ALP support is 51.5% (up 2.5%) compared to L-NP support 33% (down 3.5%).

On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 61.5% (up 2%), while support for the L-NP is 38.5% (down 2%). If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would easily retain Government.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 8.5% (up 1%), support for Family First 2.5% (up 1.5%) and Independents/Others 4.5% (down 1.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen slightly to 125 (down 3pts) with 53.5% (down 0.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is “heading in the right direction”, compared to 28.5% (up 2.5%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.”

The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of February 28 — March 1, 2009 is steady at 95.2, down 0.6 points in a week and 1 point over the past fortnight.

 

Gary Morgan says:

“The Rudd Government has increased its support as Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has struggled to assert his authority on the Liberal Party over the last few weeks.

“An Opposition cabinet reshuffle — which included Julie Bishop stepping aside as Shadow Treasurer to be replaced by Joe Hockey has given the Opposition renewed focus, but at this stage it has not impressed Australian electors as Liberal Party support dropped to 30.5% - the lowest since Malcolm Turnbull took over as Leader in September last year.

“The global recession has finally hit Australia — confirmed by a Fourth Quarter 2008 GDP contraction of 0.5%. It is imperative that the Opposition provide a united front to the Rudd Government during this period or else it will remain well behind the Rudd Government.”Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

 

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of February 21/22 & February 28/ March 1, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,845 electors.

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

During the polling period:

  • Victoria bushfires: Nation honours heroes and victims
    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has told a memorial service for the Victoria bushfire victims Black Saturday has redefined courage, given us new heroes, and vowed that every year on February 7 Australian flags would fly at half mast.

Australian companies shed jobs; Lend Lease cuts 1,700 jobs, Pacific Brands slashes 1,820 jobs
Australian companies are shedding jobs with property developer Lend Lease cutting 2,000 jobs globally over the next six months, with about 400 of those in Australia, while local textile manufacturer Pacific Brands is withdrawing its manufacturing facilities in Australia and slashing nearly 2,000 local jobs.

Rudd pledges $300m to help retrenched workers
Retrenched workers will now be able to immediately access help to find a new job under a $298.5 million plan announced by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd today.

  • Accused bushfire arsonist to face court

The first person to be charged over Victoria's deadly bushfires has faced court in Melbourne.

  • Full steam ahead on carbon trading: Wong, as Rudd pushes timetable back 6 months
    Climate Change Minister Penny Wong has moved to kill off any speculation the Government will change or delay its emissions trading scheme, even as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd hinted that the ETS would be delayed for 6 months.

  • Obama signs stimulus plan, forecasts biggest deficit since World War II

United States President Barack Obama has signed his $US787 billion economic stimulus bill into law and also forecast America’s biggest deficit since World War II in a costly Budget that allocates billions to arresting the economy’s freefall.

  • Heath Ledger caps career with posthumous Oscar
    Australian Heath Ledger has become only the second actor in Oscar’s history to win a posthumous Academy Award.

  • Retirees 'panic' as super returns plummet
    Self-funded retirees are starting to panic about the dramatic declines in superannuation returns, a pensioners group says.

 

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

     

The

Family

Ind./

 

ALP

L-NP

Greens

First#*

Others

RECENT ELECTION RESULTS

%

%

%

%

%

Election March 2, 1996
38.8
47.3 (8.6)
1.7
0
12.2
Election October 3^, 1998
40.1
39.5 (5.3)
2.1
0
18.3
Election November 10, 2001
37.8
43 (5.6)
4.4
0
13.8
Election October 9, 2004
37.6
46.4 (5.9)
7.2
2.0
6.8
Election November 24, 2007
43.4
42.1 (5.9)
7.8
2.0
4.7

MORGAN POLL

          
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)
49
36.5 (3.5)
7
1.5
6
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)
49.5
34 (2.5)
10.5
2.5
3.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
51.5
33 (2.5)
8
2
5.5
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)
53
32(2)
10
1
4
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008(Face : Face)
49
36 (3)
8.5
1.5
5
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)
50
34.5 (3)
8
1
6.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)
54
33 (3)
7.5
1.5
4
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)
56.5
31.5(3)
6.5
1.5
4
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
55.5
30.5 (2.5)
9
1.5
3.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)
53.5
34 (2.5)
5.5
1.5
5.5
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
55
31 (2)
7
3
4
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)
51
34 (2)
7.5
2
5.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
53.5
33.5 (2)
7.5
1.5
4
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)
54
32 (3)
8.5
1
4.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
54
33.5 (4.5)
6.5
1
5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)
55
33 (2.5)
6
1
5
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
54.5
33.5 (3.5)
5.5
2.5
4
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)
52.5
32.5 (2)
8
2
5
May 7-11, 2008(Phone)
47
37 (2.5)
9
1
6
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)
51.5
35 (2.5)
8
1
4
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)
53
34 (3)
5.5
2.5
5
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)
52.5
31.5 (2.5)
9
2
5
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)
45.5
38.5 (2)
8.5
1.5
6
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)
48.5
36 (3)
8.5
2
5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)
52
34 (2)
8
1.5
4.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
48.5
35 (2.5)
8
2.5
6
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
48
34.5 (2.5)
11.5
2.5
3.5
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)
45.5
39.5 (2)
7.5
2
5.5
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)
45.5
39.5 (2.5)
8
1.5
6
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)
47
37.5 (4)
8.5
2
5
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face)
50
37 (3)
6.5
2
4.5
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face)
45
38 (3.5)
8
1.5
7.5
 
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15
 
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone)
46.5
38.5 (3)
8
2.5
4.5
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face)
46.5
36.5 (3.5)
10
1.5
5.5
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone)
46.5
36 (2)
9.5
3
5
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face)
46
36 (2.5)
9.5
2.5
6
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone)
48
38 (2)
8
1.5
4.5
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face)
46.5
37.5 (2.5)
8.5
2
5.5
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
49
36 (3)
8.5
2
4.5
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
50.5
35.5 (2)
7.5
2
4.5
November 29/30& December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face)
48.5
34.5 (2.5)
10.5
1.5
5
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face)
52.5
35.5 (3)
6
1.5
4.5
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5
35 (4)
8
1.5
4
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
50.5
36 (2)
7.5
1.5
4.5
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
46.5
38 (4)
8
2.5
5
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5
35.5 (3.5)
8
1.5
3.5
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
49
36.5 (3.5)
7.5
1
6
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5
33 (2.5)
8.5
2.5
4.5

Note: National Party results are in brackets

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

 

ALP

L-NP

    
 
%
 %    
Election March 2, 1996
46.4
53.6
    
Election October 3^, 1998
51
49
    
Election November 10, 2001
49
51
    
Election October 9, 2004
47.3
52.7
    
Election November 24, 2007
52.7
47.3
    
         

 

Preferences distributed

by how electors

say they will vote

Preferences distributed

by how electors voted

at the 2007 election

  % % % %
MORGAN POLL
ALP
L-NP
ALP
L-NP
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)
58.5
41.5
58.5
41.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)
61.5
38.5
60.5
39.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
62
38
61.5
38.5
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)
63
37
63
37
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
60
40
59
41
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)
60
40
60
40
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)
63
37
62.5
37.5
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)
64.5
35.5
64.5
35.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
65.5
34.5
65
35
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)
62
38
61
39
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
36.5
63.5
36.5
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)
61.5
38.5
60.5
39.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
38.5
62
38
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)
64.5
35.5
63.5
36.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
62.5
37.5
62
38
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)
64
36
62.5
37.5
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
62.5
37.5
61.5
38.5
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)
64
36
62
38
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone)
58
42
58
42
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)
61
39
60.5
39.5
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)
62
38
61
39
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
36.5
63
37
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)
56
44
56
44
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)
59
41
58.5
41.5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
38.5
61
39
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
59
41
59
41
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
60
40
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)
55
45
55
45
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)
54.5
45.5
55
45
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
42.5
57
43
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face)
59
41
58
42
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face)
56
44
55.5
44.5
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone)
57.5
42.5
56
44
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
57.5
42.5
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone)
56.5
43.5
57.5
42.5
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face)
58
42
57.5
42.5
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone)
58
42
57.5
42.5
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face)
57
43
56.5
43.5
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
58.5
41.5
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
59.5
40.5
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
59.5
40.5
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face)
 61
39
60
40
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
61
39
60
40
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
59.5
40.5
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
55.5
45.5
56
44
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
62
38
60
40
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
59.5
40.5
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
62
38
61.5
38.5

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

 

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win

ALP

L-NP

Can't Say

 

%

%

%

Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)
58
14.5
27.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)
61
17
22
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
65
15
20
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)
65
10.5
24.5
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
64
16
20
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)
65.5
9
25.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)
65.5
17
17.5
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)
69.5
15
15.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
70.5
14
15.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)
71
13
16
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
70.5
14.5
15
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)
71.5
12.5
16
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
71.5
15
13.5
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)
75
10
15
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
72
15.5
12.5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)
73
12
15
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
72.5
15.5
12
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)
72.5
14
13.5
May 7-11, 2008(Phone)
70.5
11.5
18
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)
69.5
17
13.5
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)
68
15.5
16.5
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
20.5
16
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)
65.5
21
13.5
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
20
18.5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)
64.5
21
14.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
23.5
15
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
66
22
12
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)
61
24
15
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
24.5
16
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)
62
23
15
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face)
60.5
23.5
16
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
26.5
16
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone)
51
29.5
19.5
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face)
54
29
17
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone)
52
29
19
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face)
53.5
30
16.5
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone)
58.5
22.5
19
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
29
13.5
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
58.5
25.5
16
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
26
14.5
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face)
62.5
22.5
15
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
21
15.5
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
65
23
12
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
66
21
13
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
58.5
26.5
15
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
63
24
13
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
67.5
21
11.5
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
66
19.5
14.5

 

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

 

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Brendan Nelson)

 

Dec

5/6

Dec 1/2

& 8/9

Jan 5/6

& 12/13

Jan

23/24

Jan 19/20

& 26/27

Jan

30/31

Feb 2/3

& 9/10

Feb 16/17

& 23/24

Mar 1/2

& 8/9

Mar

11/12

Mar 15/16

& 22/23

Mar 26/27

& Apr 2/3

Apr

5/6

Apr

9/10

Apr

12/13

 

Phone

Face

Face

Phone

Face

Phone

Face

Face

Face

Phone

Face

Phone

Face

Phone

Face

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

60

64

64

61

59.5

62

62.5

61

62.5

51.5

53.5

54

56.5

49.5

59

Wrong direction

15.5

16.5

17

19

20

20

18.5

22

20

29.5

27.5

26.5

25

26

23

Roy Morgan GCR*

144.5

147.5

147

142

139.5

142

144

139

142.5

122

126

127.5

131.5

123.5

136

Can’t say

24.5

19.5

19

20

20.5

18

19

17

17.5

19

19

19.5

18.5

24.5

18

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Brendan Nelson)

 

Apr

16/17

Apr 19/20

& 26/27

May 3/4

May

7-11

May

17/18

May

24/25

May 31

& June 1

 June 4-9 June 7/8 June 14/15 & 21/22 June 28/29 & July 5/6 July

12/13

July

19/20

 July 26/27 & Aug 2/3 Aug 9/10 & 16/17 Aug 23/24 & 30/31 Sep 6/7 & 13/14
 

Phone

Face

Face

Phone

 Face Face Face Phone Face Face Face Face Face Face Face Face Face
 

%

%

%

%

 % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

55

59

56.5

52

 56 53 49.5 48 54 48 45.5 47 43.5 47.5 52 51 51.5

Wrong direction

26.5

27.5

25.5

29

 25 31.5 30 31 27 34 34 34.5 36.5 35.5 29 32 32.5

Roy Morgan GCR*

128.5

131.5

131

123

 130

 121.5

 119.5 117 127 114 111.5 112.5 107 112 123 119 119

Can’t say

18.5

13.5

18

19

 18 15.5 20.5 21 19 18 20.5 18.5 20 17 19 17 16

Total

100

100

100

100

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull)

 

Sep

24/25

Sep 20/21

& 27/28

Oct

8/9

Oct 4/5

& 11/12

Oct

15/16

Oct 18/19

& 25/26

Nov 1/2

& 8/9

Nov 15/16

& 22/23

Nov 29/30

& Dec 6/7

Dec 13/14

& 20/21

Jan 3/4

& 10/11

Jan 17/18

& 24/25

Jan 31

& Feb 1

Feb

7/8

Feb

14/15

Feb 21/22

& 28/ Mar 1

  Phone

Face

 Phone Face Phone Face Face Face Face Face Face Face Face Face Face Face
  %

%

 % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

 53

54

 46 52 52 54.5 57.5 56 58.5 57 59 55.5 49.5 54.5 54 53.5

Wrong direction

 27

28

 30 29.5 25 26.5 24.5 24 23.5 24.5 22 27.5 29.5 28.5 26 28.5

Roy Morgan GCR*

 126

126

 116 122.5 127 128 133 132 135 132.5 137 128.5 120 126 128 125

Can’t say

 20

18

 24 18.5 23 19 18 20 18 18.5 19 17 21 17 20 18

Total

 100

100

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).

 

 

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1

 

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

 

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

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The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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