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Queensland Election result shows the importance of

getting the interview methodologies right for an accurate polling prediction

Finding No. 4367 - Queensland Election Results show the importance of getting the interview methodologies.: March 23, 2009

To all,

As with so many recent elections Galaxy and Newspoll have not always been as accurate as they claim.

There are two reasons:

1. Their estimate of the vote for each party has been out a lot — both were very wrong in their estimate of the Brisbane vote for each party (check it yourself), and

2. It is for this reason that they both wrongly said the Queensland election would be close — it was never going to be close — the ALP fooled the media ‘sheep’, as they do so often. Peter Brent is ‘right’ - both the final week surveys indicated huge swings to the LNP in and around Brisbane and modest ones (in aggregate) elsewhere in the State - unfortunately their Brisbane results were very WRONG!

Regards,

Gary Morgan

QUEENSLAND VOTING INTENTION - Primary Vote Predictions

	Mar 21	Mar 18/19		Mar 17/18
	2009	Telephone		Telephone
	Queensland election	Newspoll		Galaxy
	result*	%	error	%	error

Sample Size		(1,328)		(800)

LNP	41.5	42.1	+0.6	43	+1.5

ALP	42.6	41.7	-0.9	40	-2.6

The Greens	8.0	7.4	-0.6	9	+1.0

Family First	0.8	0.5	-0.3	na	na

Ind/Other	7.1	8.3	+1.2	8*	+0.1

Av. error on major parties (LNP, ALP)			0.75		2.05
Av. error on 5/4 largest ‘parties’			0.7		1.3

BRISBANE VOTING INTENTION - Primary Vote Predictions

	Mar 21	Mar 18/19		Mar 17/18
	2009	Telephone		Telephone
	Queensland election	Newspoll		Galaxy
	result*	%	error	%	error

LNP	37.6	40.1	+2.5	41	+3.4

ALP	48.2	42.5	-5.7	43	-5.2

The Greens	10.1	8.6	-1.5	na	na

Ind/Other	4.1	8.8	+4.7	16#	+1.8

Av. error on major parties (LNP, ALP)			4.1		4.8
Av. error on 4/3 largest ‘parties’			3.6		3.5

REST OF QUEENSLAND VOTING INTENTION - Primary Vote Predictions

	Mar 21	Mar 18/19		Mar 17/18
	2009	Telephone		Telephone
	Queensland election	Newspoll		Galaxy
	result*	%	error	%	error

LNP	44.2	43.9	-0.3	44	-0.2

ALP	38.8	40.9	+2.1	38	-0.8

The Greens	6.7	6.4	-0.3	na	na

Ind/Other	10.3	8.8	-1.5	18#	+1

Av. error on major parties (LNP, ALP)			1.2		0.5
Av. error on 4/3 largest ‘parties’			1.1		0.7

Election Commission of Queensland (http://virtualtallyroom.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/state2009/results/summary.html);

at 4pm, 24/03/2009.

*Galaxy Ind/Others includes Family First vote.

# Galaxy Ind/Others for Brisbane & Rest of Queensland includes Greens vote.

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094