Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |

In March, support for the ALP in the Senate was 43% (up 2.7% since the November 24, 2007 half-Senate Election). Coalition support was 34% (down 5.9%) and Greens support 12% (up 3%), the latest Roy Morgan Senate Poll finds.

Support for minor parties was Family First 2.5% (up 0.9%), One Nation 0.5% (up 0.1%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 8.8% (down 0.8%).

Results by State:

In New South Wales: ALP 46% (up 3.9% since the half-Senate Election), L-NP 34% (down 5.3%), Greens 11.5% (up 3.1%), Family First 2% (up 1.4%), CDP 2% (unchanged), One Nation 0.5% (up 0.1%) and Others 4% (down 3.2%). If a half-Senate election were held in New South Wales now, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have three Senators, L-NP two Senators, with the remaining Senator determined by preferences but probably a Greens Senator.

In Victoria: ALP 42.5% (up 0.8% since the election), L-NP 34% (down 5.5%), Greens 13.5% (up 3.4%),  Family First 4% (up 1.5%), One Nation 0.5% (up 0.1%) and Others 5.5% (down 0.3%). If a half-Senate election were held in Victoria now, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have three Senators, L-NP two Senators, with the remaining Senator determined by preferences but probably a Greens Senator.

In Queensland: ALP 42% (up 2.8% since the election), Liberal 28.5% and Nationals 6% (down a combined 5.9% from the Liberal-National ticket that ran at the 2007 Federal Election), Greens 12% (up 4.7%), Pauline Hanson 3.5% (down 0.7%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.7%), and Others 6.5% (unchanged). If a half-Senate election were held in Queensland now, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have three Senators, Liberals two Senators, with the remaining Senator determined by preferences but probably a Greens Senator.

In Western Australia: ALP 39% (up 3%), Liberal 35.5% (down 10.7%), Greens 11% (up 1.7%), Nationals 5% (up 3.6%), Family First 2.5% (up 1.6%), CDP 2% (up 0.2%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 4.5% (up 1.1%). If a half-Senate election were held in Western Australia now, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have two Senators, Liberals two Senators, and two Senators determined by preferences with either a Greens or ALP Senator and either a Liberal or Nationals Senator.

In South Australia: ALP 40.5% (up 4.9%), L-NP 27% (down 8.6%), Others (including Nick Xenophon) 19.5% (up 1.8%), Greens 9% (up 2.5%), Family First 3.5% (up 0.6%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.1%) and Other 19.5% (up 0.7%). If a half-Senate election were held in South Australia now, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have two Senators, L-NP two Senators, Senator Nick Xenophon (who is not at present standing a candidate) and one position determined by preferences but probably a Greens Senator.

In Tasmania: ALP 42.5% (up 2.4%), Liberal 32.5% (down 4.9%), Greens 15.5% (down 2.6%), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 7% (up 4.6%). If a half-Senate election were held in Tasmania now, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have three Senators, Liberals two Senators, and the Greens one Senator.

In ACT: ALP 41.5% (up 0.7%), L-NP 26.5% (down 7.7%), Greens 26% (up 4.5%) and Others 6% (up 2.5%).  This would most likely result in one ACT ALP Senator, and either an L-NP or a Greens Senator.

Results for Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania are for January — March 2009. 

Results for ACT are for October 2008 — March 2009.

Note: For Senators to be elected, they must obtain 7.7% or more of the vote (the quota) in a State when all Senators (12 per State) are to be elected.  At an election for half the Senate the quota is 14.3% and six Senators are elected from each State.

In the ACT and the NT in which both Senate seats are up for re-election at every Federal election the quote is 33.4% to win a seat.

See following tables for full analysis by States, month interviewed and demographic breakdown.

These are the main findings of the latest Roy Morgan Senate Poll, conducted face-to-face in all electorates throughout Australia with:

1,199 electors in New South Wales during March 2009 — of all NSW electors surveyed, 7.4% were undecided on Senate voting intention;

874 electors in Victoria during March 2009 — of all Victorian electors surveyed, 6.6% were undecided on Senate voting intention;

765 electors in Queensland during March 2009 — of all Queensland electors surveyed, 10.3% were undecided on Senate voting intention;

835 electors in South Australia during January — March 2009 — of all SA electors surveyed, 7.8% were undecided on Senate voting intention;

1115 electors in Western Australia during January — March 2009 — of all WA electors surveyed, 4.3% were undecided on Senate voting intention;

403 electors in Tasmania during January — March 2009 — of all Tasmanian electors surveyed, 10.1% were undecided on Senate voting intention;

478 electors in the ACT during October 2008 — March 2009 — of all ACT electors surveyed, 10.2% were undecided on Senate voting intention.

Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

             Composition of the Australian Senate

Total Australia:	Currently	Not up for Re-election	Newly Elected in 2010#	New Senate
ALP	32	16	18-19	34-35
Liberals	32	14	12-14	26-28
Nationals	4	2	0-1	2-3
Country Liberal	1	0	1	1
Greens	5	3	5-7	8-10
Family First	1	0	0	0
Independent (Nick Xenophon)*	1	1	1*	2*
TOTAL	76	36	40	76

*Independent South Australian Senator Nick Xenophon is currently not standing a candidate in the next half-Senate Election.

If he does endorse a candidate, they are likely to be elected. If not, Xenophon’s vote is there to be won by an Other Party.

#Roy Morgan projection for 2010 half-Senate Election.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:          Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Senate Voting Intention

Respondents were asked: “If a Federal election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Total Australia:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	43.5	43	2.9	n/a	n/a	10.6
March 2, 1996	36.2	44	1.7	n/a	n/a	18.1
October 3, 1998	37.3	36.5	2.2	n/a	9.0	15
November 10, 2001	34.1	42	4.9	n/a	5.6	13.4
October 9, 2004	35	44.7	7.7	1.8	1.7	9.1
November 24, 2007	40.3	39.9	9	1.6	0.4	8.8
Morgan Poll:
September & October, 2006	39	36	10.5	2.5	1	11
November & December, 2006	40	36.5	10.5	2.5	1	9.5
January & February, 2007	42	36	10	2	1	9
March & April, 2007	45.5	32.5	9.5	2	1	9.5
May & June, 2007	45.5	33.5	9.5	2	1	8.5
July & August, 2007	43	37	8.5	2	1	8.5
September 2007	46.5	33.5	9.5	2	1	7.5
October 2007	44.5	35.5	9	2	1	8
January 2009	43.5	34	11	2.5	0.5	8.5
February 2009	43	34	12.5	2.5	0.5	7.5
March 2009	43	34	12	2.5	0.5	8

	All Electors	Area		Gender		Age
		City	Country	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	43	42	45	41.5	44.5	39	47	45	41.5
Liberal	30.5	31.5	28	31	30	28.5	24	27	35
National	3.5	3	5	3.5	3.5	3.5	1.5	4	4
Total L-NP	34	34.5	33	34.5	33.5	32	25.5	31	39
Greens	12	12.5	12	12.5	12	17.5	14	14	9.5
Family First	2.5	3	2	2.5	2.5	1.5	5.5	2.5	2
One Nation	0.5	0	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0	0.5	0.5
Other	8	8	7.5	8.5	7	9.5	8	7	7.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Senate Vote by State

New South Wales:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	CDP	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	46.9	38.9	3.4	n/a	n/a	^	10.8
March 2,  1996	37.2	41.4	2.7	n/a	n/a	^	18.7
October 3, 1998	38.7	36.6	2.2	n/a	9.6	^	12.9
November 10, 2001	33.5	41.8	4.4	n/a	5.6	^	14.7
October 9, 2004	36.4	44.1	7.3	0.6	1.9	^	9.7
November 24, 2007	42.1	39.3	8.4	0.6	0.4	2	7.2
Morgan Poll:
September & October, 2006	40.5	35.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	11
November & December, 2006	40.5	36.5	9.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	9
January & February, 2007	43	34	10.5	1.5	1	1.5	8.5
March & April, 2007	46.5	31	9.5	1	1	2.5	8.5
May & June, 2007	48.5	32.5	9.5	1	1	2	5.5
July & August, 2007	45.5	37.5	7	1	1	2	6
September 2007	50	32	9	1.5	1.5	1	5
October 2007	47.5	34.5	8.5	1.5	1	2	5
January 2009	46.5	34.5	10.5	1	0.5	1.5	5.5
February 2009	45.5	32.5	12	2.5	0.5	1.5	5.5
March 2009	46	34	11.5	2	0.5	2	4

^ Result included in Other

Victoria:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election
March 13, 1993	45	44.1	1.2	n/a	n/a	9.7
March 2, 1996	39.8	41.4	2.9	n/a	n/a	15.9
October 3, 1998	40.6	37.9	2.5	n/a	4.1	14.9
November 10, 2001	36.8	39.6	6	n/a	2.5	15.1
October 9, 2004	36.1	44.1	8.8	1.9	0.7	8.4
November 24, 2007	41.7	39.5	10.1	2.5	0.4	5.8
Morgan Poll:
September & October, 2006	38.5	35.5	13	2.5	0.5	10
November & December, 2006	39.5	36	14.5	2	0.5	7.5
January & February, 2007	41	36	12	2.5	1	7.5
March & April, 2007	46	34	11	3	1	5
May & June, 2007	45.5	33	10	2.5	1	8
July & August, 2007	42	37	10.5	3	0.5	7
September 2007	48	34	10.5	1.5	0.5	5.5
October 2007	45	35.5	10.5	2.5	0.5	6
January 2009	43.5	34.5	13.5	2.5	0.5	5.5
February 2009	44	35	13	3	1	4
March 2009	42.5	34	13.5	4	0.5	5.5

Queensland:	ALP	Lib.	Nat.	Greens	Family First	One Nation	Pauline Hanson	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	39.4	31.5	14.5	3.2	n/a	n/a	^	11.4
March 2, 1996	30.3	35.4	15	2.4	n/a	n/a	^	16.9
October 3, 1998	32.7	28.5	9.5	2.1	n/a	14.8	^	12.4
November 10, 2001	31.7	34.9	9.2	3.3	n/a	10	^	10.9
October 9, 2004	31.7	38.3	6.6	5.4	3.4	3.1	^	11.5
November 24, 2007	39.2	40.4	n/a	7.3	2.2	0.2	4.2	6.5
Morgan Poll:							^
September & October, 2006	39	30	7	9	2.5	1.5	^	11
November & December, 2006	40	30.5	7	8.5	3	1.5	^	9.5
January & February, 2007	41	32	6.5	7.5	2	1.5	^	9.5
March & April, 2007	44.5	25	6	7	2.5	1.5	4.5	9
May & June, 2007	42	30	4.5	6.5	2	1	4.5	9.5
July & August, 2007	41.5	31	4.5	6	2.5	0.5	5.5	8.5
September 2007	40.5	30	4	6	3	1	7.5	8
October 2007	40	32.5	4.5	6.5	2.5	0.5	5.5	8
January 2009	44.5	25.5	6	8	3.5	1.5	5.5	5.5
February 2009	40.5	29.5	6	11.5	2	1	4.5	5
March 2009	42	28.5	6	12	1.5	0	3.5	6.5

^From March 10/11 2007; *The Liberal Party & National Party combined for the Senate in the 2007 Election.

Western Australia:	ALP	Lib.	Nat.	Greens	Family First	One Nation	CDP	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	38.3	48.4	1.7	5.5	n/a	n/a	^	6.1
March 2, 1996	34	45.4	2.1	5.7	n/a	n/a	^	12.8
October 3, 1998	34.7	38.4	1.3	5.7	n/a	10.4	^	9.5
November 10, 2001	34.2	40.1	2.4	5.9	n/a	7	^	10.4
October 9, 2004	32.5	49.3	0.9	8.1	0.9	2.5	^	5.8
November 24, 2007	36	46.2	1.4	9.3	0.9	1	1.8	3.4
Morgan Poll:
September & October, 2006	37.5	37	2.5	11.5	1	1.5	2	7
November & December, 2006	37	37.5	2	9.5	1.5	1	1.5	10
January & February, 2007	40.5	38	3	7	1.5	2.5	1	6.5
March & April, 2007	41.5	36.5	2.5	10	1.5	1	2.5	4.5
May & June, 2007	43	33.5	2	11	2	1.5	1	6
July & August, 2007	37	42	1.5	9.5	1.5	1.5	1	6
September & October, 2007	39	42	1.5	10.5	1.5	1	1	3.5
January - March, 2009	39	35.5	5	11	2.5	0.5	2	4.5

^ Result included in other

South Australia:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	38	45.6	1.6	n/a	n/a	14.8
March 2, 1996	32.2	45.8	2.1	n/a	n/a	19.9
October 3, 1998	32	40.5	2.2	n/a	9.7	15.6
November 10, 2001	33.2	45.5	3.5	n/a	4.6	13.2
October 9, 2004	35.5	47.9	6.6	4	1.1	4.9
November 24, 2007	35.6	35.6	6.5	2.9	0.6	18.8*
Morgan Poll:
September & October, 2006	37	35	8	4.5	0.5	15
November & December, 2006	41.5	33.5	8	4.5	1	11.5
January & February, 2007	44.5	31.5	8.5	5	0.5	10
March & April, 2007	47.5	31.5	5.5	3.5	1	11
May & June, 2007	43.5	35.5	7.5	4.5	1	8
July & August, 2007	46	33.5	7	4.5	1	8
September & October, 2007	45.5	32.5	6	4	1.5	10.5
January - March, 2009	40.5	27	9	3.5	0.5	19.5*

*Nick Xenophon stood in the 2007 Election and was elected.

Tasmania:	ALP	Lib.	Greens	Family First	Other
	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	42.7	36.7^	6.8	n/a	13.8
March 2, 1996	39.1	42.3^	8.7	n/a	9.9
October 3, 1998	41.6	33.8^	5.8	n/a	18.8
November 10, 2001	36.8	38.8^	13.8	n/a	10.6
October 9, 2004	33.5	46.1	13.3	2.4	4.7
November 24, 2007	40.1	37.4	18.1	2	2.4
Morgan Poll:
September & October, 2006	39	32.5	17.5	3	8
November & December, 2006	38	35.5	15	3	8.5
January — April, 2007*	46	31.5	14	2	6.5
May & June, 2007	43	35	17	1.5	3.5
July & August, 2007	45	30	17.5	2.5	5
September & October, 2007	45.5	30.5	20.5	1	2.5
January - March, 2009	42.5	32.5	15.5	2.5	7

^ Results for Liberal-National Coalition

* The January/February and March/April Tasmanian Senate results were combined due to a small sample

ACT:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Other
	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	48.6	35.0	6.1	10.3
March 2, 1996	42.6	39.0	5.9	12.5
October 3, 1998	42.6	31.2	3.2	23
November 10, 2001	42.0	34.3	7.2	16.5
October 9, 2004	41.1	37.9	16.4	4.6
November 24, 2007	40.8	34.2	21.5	3.5
Morgan Poll:
September-December 2006	42	25.5	19	13.5
January-May 2007	48	27.5	15.5	9
June-October 2007	48	24.5	20	7.5
October 2008 - March, 2009	41.5	26.5	26	6

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1
5,000	±1.4	±1.2	±0.8	±0.6
10,000	±1	±0.9	±0.6	±0.4
25,000	±0.6	±0.5	±0.4	±0.3
50,000	±0.4	±0.4	±0.3	±0.2

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement