Support for Rudd Government slips, but still has large lead
Two-party preferred lead of ALP (59%) cf. L-NP (41%)
| Finding No. 4374 -
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,838 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.0% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.:
May 01, 2009 |
The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted in late April 2009 shows if a Federal Election were held now the Rudd Government would easily retain Government. This is despite a drop of 1.5% in ALP primary support to 50% and L-NP support rising 3% to 36.5%.
On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 59% (down 2%), while support for the L-NP is 41% (up 2%).
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 8.5% (up 0.5%), support for Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/Others 3.5% (down 1.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 125 (down 5.5pts) with 53% (down 3.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is “heading in the right direction,” compared to 28% (up 2%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.”
The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of April 25/26, 2009 is down 3.0 points to 99.6, driven by increasing worries about the year ahead.
Gary Morgan says:
“As the Rudd Government prepares to deliver a record Budget deficit in its second Budget on May 12 support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis has slipped to 59% (down 2%) while support for the L-NP is now 41% (up 2%).
“With unemployment high (Roy Morgan March unemployment estimate is 7.0% and the April estimate expected to ‘jump’ when released early next week) the Rudd Government must use the Budget to support Australian businesses. Business is the ‘engine of growth’ in the Australian economy and it is vital that the Budget provides incentives and cuts the red tape which will allow businesses to continue growing and hiring employees.
“Although the Rudd Government has taken significant policy measures to support Australia’s youth with funding increases for education and workplace training initiatives, the unemployment rate is the measure that Australians will look at to judge the success of the Government when they next go to the polls.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,838 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.0% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
During the polling period:
- 'No guarantees' unemployment won't hit double digits
Treasurer Wayne Swan has not ruled out the possibility of unemployment reaching double-digit figures in the wake of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) grim forecasts for the global economy.
- It's going to get worse: IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting Australia's economy will contract 1.4 per cent this year as unemployment continues to rise and the world experiences the first global recession since World War II.
- Latest asylum seekers heading for Christmas Island
Nearly 50 people on board a boat intercepted near Ashmore Island off the north-west coast of Australia are being transferred to an immigration detention centre on Christmas Island.
- Broadband upgrade will usher in a new era: analysts
The rapid move to 100 megabits-per-second broadband has been welcomed by many economists and service providers.
- Unions scramble as Qantas swings the axe
Unions are seeking an urgent meeting with Qantas over the airline's plan to axe up to 1,750 jobs.
- Stakes raised as pirates seize more ships
Somali pirates have seized two more ships, brushing off their losses from deadly rescue operations and throwing down the gauntlet to US President Barack Obama after he pledged to curb piracy.
- Billionaire Pratt 'gravely ill'
Prominent Australian businessman and philanthropist Richard Pratt was only days away from death — Pratt died early this week. Pratt’s condition inspired his club Carlton to a stirring victory over the Western Bulldogs in Round 5.
- Opposition demands 'real' recession figures
The Federal Opposition says the Rudd Government must immediately release economic figures to explain why a recession in Australia is inevitable.
- Swift bushfires 'could not be fought'
The counsel assisting the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, Jack Rush QC, says while people knew February 7 would be a day of risk, they were not aware they would be dealing with a fire of "phenomenal" speed.
- Thousands attend Anzac Day dawn services
Tens of thousands of people have attended Anzac Day dawn services around Australia and New Zealand.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First#* |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
0 |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
0 |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
0 |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32(2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008(Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5(3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
1 |
4 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53 |
34 (3) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
31.5 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
45.5 |
38.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48 |
34.5 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37.5 (4) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50 |
37 (3) |
6.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
| |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15 |
| |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
36.5 (3.5) |
10 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
36 (2) |
9.5 |
3 |
5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46 |
36 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
48 |
38 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
37.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
35.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 29/30& December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
34.5 (2.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
35.5 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (4) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
36 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38 (4) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
39 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 (3) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59 |
41 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
34.5 |
65 |
35 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
64 |
36 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
64 |
36 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63 |
37 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15 |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
45.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
60 |
40 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59 |
41 |
** Phone Poll
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
|
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
75 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
68 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
20.5 |
16 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
21 |
13.5 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
21 |
14.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
23.5 |
15 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
24 |
15 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
24.5 |
16 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
23 |
15 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
23.5 |
16 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
26.5 |
16 |
|
|
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15 |
|
|
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
29.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
29 |
17 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
52 |
29 |
19 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58.5 |
22.5 |
19 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
29 |
13.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
25.5 |
16 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
26 |
14.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
22.5 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23 |
12 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
26.5 |
15 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63 |
24 |
13 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
19.5 |
14.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
64 |
24 |
12 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
20.5 |
14.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
68.5 |
18.5 |
13 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Brendan Nelson) |
| |
May
3/4 |
May
7-11 |
May
17/18 |
May
24/25 |
May 31
& June 1 |
June
4-9 |
June
7/8 |
June 14/15
& 21/22 |
June 28/29
& July 5/6 |
July
|
July
19/20 |
July 26/27
& Aug 2/3 |
Aug 9/10
& 16/17 |
Aug 23/24
& 30/31 |
Sep 6/7
& 13/14 |
| |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
56.5 |
52 |
56 |
53 |
49.5 |
48 |
54 |
48 |
45.5 |
47 |
43.5 |
47.5 |
52 |
51 |
51.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
25.5 |
29 |
25 |
31.5 |
30 |
31 |
27 |
34 |
34 |
34.5 |
36.5 |
35.5 |
29 |
32 |
32.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
131 |
123 |
130 |
121.5 |
119.5 |
117 |
127 |
114 |
111.5 |
112.5 |
107 |
112 |
123 |
119 |
119 |
|
Can’t say |
18 |
19 |
18 |
15.5 |
20.5 |
21 |
19 |
18 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
20 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull) |
| |
Sep
24/25 |
Sep 20/21
& 27/28 |
Oct
8/9 |
Oct 4/5
& 11/12 |
Oct
15/16 |
Oct 18/19
& 25/26 |
Nov 1/2
& 8/9 |
Nov 15/16
& 22/23 |
Nov 29/30
& Dec 6/7 |
Dec 13/14
& 20/21 |
Jan 3/4
& 10/11 |
Jan 17/18
& 24/25 |
Jan 31
& Feb 1 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
53 |
54 |
46 |
52 |
52 |
54.5 |
57.5 |
56 |
58.5 |
57 |
59 |
55.5 |
49.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
27 |
28 |
30 |
29.5 |
25 |
26.5 |
24.5 |
24 |
23.5 |
24.5 |
22 |
27.5 |
29.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
126 |
126 |
116 |
122.5 |
127 |
128 |
133 |
132 |
135 |
132.5 |
137 |
128.5 |
120 |
|
Can’t say |
20 |
18 |
24 |
18.5 |
23 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
18.5 |
19 |
17 |
21 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull) |
| |
Feb
7/8 |
Feb
14/15 |
Feb 21/22
& 28/ Mar 1 |
Mar
7/8 |
Mar
14/15 |
Mar 21/22
& 28/29 |
Apr 4/5
& 11/12 |
Apr 18/19
& 25/26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
54.5 |
54 |
53.5 |
50.5 |
50.5 |
53.5 |
56.5 |
53 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
26 |
28.5 |
31 |
29.5 |
28.5 |
26 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
126 |
128 |
125 |
119.5 |
121 |
125 |
130.5 |
125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
17 |
20 |
18 |
18.5 |
20 |
18 |
17.5 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
