In mid May support for John Key’s National Party-led Government is 57% (down 2%) comprising National Party support 52% (down 3%), Maori Party 2.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 2% (unchanged), and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted May 4-17, 2009.

Support for Opposition parties is 43% (up 2%) — Labour Party support is 31.5% (up 1%), Greens 9.5% (up 2.5%), NZ First 1% (down 1%), Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 148 (up 1.5 points) with 67.5% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 19.5% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

During the same period, the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is up 1.8 points to 105.8.

Gary Morgan says:

“Support for the ruling National Party-led Government has fallen to 57% (down 2%) over the Opposition Parties (43%, up 2%) the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows with Prime Minister John Key maintaining a strong lead over Opposition Leader Phil Goff.

“Finance Minister Bill English is set to deliver the Key Government’s first Budget this Thursday. The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is up 1.8pts to 105.8 - its highest level since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers last September set off the ‘Global Financial Crisis.’

“The Budget is an important chance for the National-Party led Coalition to fully lay out its agenda for re-invigorating the New Zealand economy and returning the country to growth after nearly 18 months of recession.”

 

Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 985 electors from May 4-17, 2009. Of all electors surveyed, 4% (up 1%) did not name a party.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE	National	Labour	Green Party	ACT NZ	Maori Party*	United Future	NZ First	Progressive Party	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
General Election, July 27, 2002	20.9	41.3	7	7.1	n/a	6.7	10.4	1.7	4.9
General Election, September 17, 2005	39.1	41.1	5.3	1.51	2.12	2.67	5.72	1.16	1.32
General Election, November 8, 2008	44.93	33.99	6.72	3.65	2.39	0.87	4.07	0.91	2.47
MORGAN POLL
November 17-30, 2008	44	32.5	9.5	4	3.5	1	3.5	0.5	1.5
December 1-14, 2008	47	31.5	9.5	4	2	1	3	0.5	1.5
January 2-18, 2009	48	33	8	3	3.5	1	2.5	0.5	0.5
January 19 - February 1, 2009	48	31	9	3.5	3.5	1	3	0.5	0.5
February 2-15, 2009	48.5	32	8.5	2.5	3.5	0.5	1.5	1	2
February 16 - March 1, 2009	56	26	8.5	1.5	3.5	0.5	2.5	^	1.5
March 2-15, 2009	54.5	29	8	2.5	2	0.5	2	0.5	1
March 23 - April 5, 2009	50.5	28	9.5	4	3.5	1	2.5	^	1
April 6-19, 2009	50	32.5	8.5	2.5	3.5	0.5	2	^	0.5
April 20 - May 3, 2009	55	30.5	7	2	2	^	2	0.5	1
May 4-17, 2009	52	31.5	9.5	2	2.5	0.5	1	0.5	0.5

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE	National Party-led Government*	Opposition Parties#
	%	%
General Election, November 8, 2008	51.84	48.16
MORGAN POLL
November 17-30, 2008	52.5	47.5
December 1-14, 2008	54	46
January 2-18, 2009	55.5	44.5
January 19 - February 1, 2009	56	44
February 2-15, 2009	55	45
February 16 - March 1, 2009	61.5	38.5
March 2-15, 2009	59.5	40.5
March 23 - April 5, 2009	59	41
April 6-19, 2009	56.5	43.5
April 20 - May 3, 2009	59	41
May 4-17, 2009	57	43

*Coalition Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Progressive Party, NZ First, Other

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of Helen Clark): Interviewing Dates
	Aug 20-Sep 2, 2007	Sep 3-16, 2007	Sep 17-30, 2007	Oct 1-14, 2007	Oct 15-28, 2007	Oct 29-Nov 11, 2007	Nov 12-25, 2007	Nov 26-Dec 9, 2007	Jan 3-20, 2008	Jan 21-Feb 3, 2008	Feb 4-17, 2008	Feb 18-Mar 2, 2008	Mar 3-16, 2008	Mar 24- Apr 6, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	51.5	54	49.5	53	50.5	43.5	47	47.5	46.5	46	47	52.5	45.5	47.5
Wrong direction	35.5	32.5	34.5	32	33	37.5	37	38	39	38.5	41	34	37.5	37.5
Roy Morgan GCR#	116	121.5	115	121	117.5	106	110	109.5	107.5	107.5	106	118.5	108	110
Can’t say	13	13.5	16	15	16.5	19	16	14.5	14.5	15.5	12	13.5	17	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of Helen Clark): Interviewing Dates
	Apr 7-20, 2008	April 21-May 4, 2008	May 5-18, 2008	May 19-June 1, 2008	June 2-15, 2008	June 16-29, 2008	June 30-July 13, 2008	July 14-27, 2008	July 28-Aug 10, 2008	Aug 18-31, 2008	Sep 1-14, 2008	Sep 15-Oct 5, 2008	Oct 6-19, 2008	Oct 20-Nov 2, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	50.5	44.5	38	38	42.5	37	36.5	38.5	44.5	50.5	44	48	53	51.5
Wrong direction	34.5	40.5	44.5	44.5	40.5	49	49.5	47	41	35.5	41	39.5	34.5	35
Roy Morgan GCR#	116	104.5	93.5	93.5	102	88	87	91.5	103.5	115	103	108.5	118.5	116.5
Can’t say	15	15	17.5	17.5	17	14	14	14.5	14.5	14	15	12.5	12.5	13.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates
	Nov 3-16, 2008	Nov 17-30, 2008	Dec 1-14, 2008	Jan 2-18, 2009	Jan 19-Feb 1, 2009	Feb 2-15, 2009	Feb 16-Mar 1, 2009	Mar 2-15, 2009	Mar 23-Apr 5, 2009	Apr 6-19, 2009	Apr 20 - May 3, 2009	May 4-17, 2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	54	66	63	67	65	63.5	69	67.5	65	68.5	66.5	67.5
Wrong direction	31	19	20	19	20	20.5	18.5	20	22	17	20	19.5
Roy Morgan GCR#	123	147	143	148	145	143	150.5	147.5	143	151.5	146.5	148
Can’t say	15	15	17	14	15	16	12.5	12.5	13	14.5	13.5	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Finding No. 4378 is taken from Computer Report No. 2285

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4378 is taken from Computer Report No. 2285