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Now 60.5% (down 8.5% since December 17/18, 2008) of Australian electors prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister, 26.5% (up 6.5% since December 17/18, 2008) prefer Malcolm Turnbull while 13% (up 2%) are undecided or prefer someone else. This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last 2 nights (May 20/21, 2009).

This Morgan Poll also finds 57.5% (down 10.5% since December 17/18) of electors approve of the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister, 33.5% (up 12.5%) disapprove and 9% (down 2%) are undecided.

Electors’ approval of Malcolm Turnbull is steady, now 43% (up 1% since December 17/18, 2008) of electors approve of Turnbull, while 39% (up 1.5%) of Australians disapprove and 18% (down 2.5%) are still undecided about Turnbull’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader.

Analysis by voting intention shows that of ALP supporters 88.5% (down 2.5% since December 17/18, 2008) approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job, only 5.5% (up 2%) disapprove and 6% (up 0.5%) are undecided.

In comparison, of L-NP supporters 56% (up 4% since December 17/18, 2008) approve of the way Mr Turnbull is handling his job, 30% (up 4%) disapprove and 14% (down 8%) are undecided.

Better Prime Minister — Rudd v Turnbull

# Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party on September 16, 2008; this Special Morgan Poll was taken with Rudd v Turnbull before Turnbull became Leader of the Opposition.

Gary Morgan says:

“Kevin Rudd’s popularity (60.5%, down 8.5%) amongst Australian electors has retreated in recent months from the highs of last December. Rudd’s popularity at 60.5%, although down is still above the level (55%) it was at the time the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ began with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008.

“The Rudd Government’s initial response to the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ — including $10 billion worth of stimulus cheques delivered to many Australians - resulted in increases for Rudd’s support as Better Prime Minister.

“In contrast, Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has struggled for support through this tough period and Turnbull’s rating as Better Prime Minister (26.5%) remains below the 30% rating he received in the immediate aftermath of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of May 20/21, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross section of 873 electors.

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Turnbull.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Turnbull?”

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	55	62.5	69	60.5	93	25	67.5	44.5	68
Turnbull	30	24	20	26.5	1	61	7.5	35	14
Rudd lead	25	38.5	49	34	92	(36)	60	9.5	54
Other / Neither	15	13.5	11	13	6	14	25	20.5	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Analysis by Sex and Age
	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	55	62.5	69	60.5	61	60.5	73.5	70	64.5	51.5
Turnbull	30	24	20	26.5	28.5	25	10	19	23	36.5
Rudd lead	25	38.5	49	34	32.5	35.5	63.5	51	41.5	15
Other / Neither	15	13.5	11	13	10.5	14.5	16.5	11	12.5	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Costello

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Costello.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Costello?”

	Peter Costello as Backbencher	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 20/21, 2009	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	54.5	85	22	71	44.5	46
Costello	34.5	8	66.5	19	20	40.5
Rudd lead	20	77	(44.5)	52	24.5	5.5
Other / Neither	11	7	11.5	10	35.5	13.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Peter Costello as Backbencher	Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 20/21, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	54.5	49.5	59.5	53.5	64	57.5	49.5
Costello	34.5	40.5	28	27	24	31.5	42
Rudd lead	20	9	31.5	26.5	40	26	7.5
Other / Neither	11	10	12.5	19.5	12	12	8.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Hockey

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Hockey.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Hockey?”

	Joe Hockey as Shadow Treasurer	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 20/21, 2009	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	64	89	38	77	44.5	69.5
Hockey	22	4	46.5	0	0	17.5
Rudd lead	42	85	(8.5)	77	44.5	52
Other / Neither	14	7	15.5	23	55.5	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Joe Hockey as Shadow Treasurer	Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 20/21, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	64	65.5	63	69	70.5	63	61
Hockey	22	23	21	10	16	22.5	26.5
Rudd lead	42	42.5	42	59	54.5	40.5	34.5
Other / Neither	14	11.5	16	21	13.5	14.5	12.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval of Leaders — Kevin Rudd v Malcolm Turnbull

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

	Prime Minister Howard		Prime Minister Rudd
	May 16/17, 2007	Aug. 21/22, 2007	Feb. 20/21, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct .15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	53	44	71	56	55	64	68	57.5
Disapprove	42	51	14	33	31	23	21	33.5
Approve - Disapprove	11	(7)	57	23	24	41	47	24
Other / Can’t say	5	5	15	11	14	13	11	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 20/21, 2009	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	57.5	88.5	24	65	80	56
Disapprove	33.5	5.5	67	23.5	20	25
Approve - Disapprove	24	83	(43)	41.5	60	31
Other / Can’t say	9	6	9	11.5	0	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	May 20/21, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	57.5	54.5	60.5	75	67	56	50.5
Disapprove	33.5	35.5	31.5	17.5	22.5	31.5	42.5
Approve - Disapprove	24	19	29	67.5	45.5	24.5	8
Other / Can’t say	9	10	8	7.5	10.5	12.5	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Malcolm Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Kevin Rudd as Opposition Leader		Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader
	May 16/17, 2007	Aug. 21/22, 2007	Feb. 20/21, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	72	74	32	38	43	55	42	43
Disapprove	17	19	42	44	24	24	37.5	39
Approve - Disapprove	55	55	(10)	(6)	19	31	4.5	4
Other / Can’t say	11	7	26	18	33	21	20.5	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 20/21, 2009	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	43	34	56	39.5	80	30.5
Disapprove	39	47	30	43	0	51.5
Approve - Disapprove	4	(13)	26	(3.5)	80	(21)
Other / Can’t say	18	19	14	17.5	20	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	May 20/21, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	43	43	42.5	37	44	41.5	44.5
Disapprove	39	41.5	37	33	29.5	40	44
Approve - Disapprove	4	1.5	5.5	4	14.5	1.5	0.5
Other / Can’t say	18	15.5	20.5	30	26.5	18.5	11.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2010 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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