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Today 70% of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months
although 77% of working Australians say their ‘Present job is safe’

Finding No. 4389 - These findings come from a special Morgan Poll conducted in Australia on attitudes towards employment in the coming 12 months. In Australia, a cross-section of 649 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on June 10-11, 2009.: June 15, 2009

Unemployment to increase / decrease

In early June 70% (unchanged since November 2008) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months while only 18% (down 2%) say that unemployment will fall and 11% (up 3%) say unemployment will remain the same over the next 12 months. Just 1% (down 1%) doesn’t know.

Job security

Despite a majority of Australians expecting unemployment in Australia to rise in the next 12 months, 77% (down 3% since November 2008) of Australians who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 21% (up 3%) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and only 2% (unchanged) don’t know.

Finding a new job

However, 57% (down 6% since November 2008) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly. Thirty-six per cent (up 2%) say it might take longer to find a new job, 4% (up 2%) wouldn’t look and 3% (up 2%) don’t know.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate for May is 7.4% — up 0.3% — 825,000.

“Looking at the latest Australian attitudes towards employment show that many Australians remain worried about Australia’s employment situation. A clear majority of Australians (70%) believe unemployment in Australia will rise over the next 12 months.

“Despite this most employed Australians (77%) believe their own job is secure, however there has been a significant drop (57%, down 6%) of Australians that are confident they’d be able to find a new job quickly should they become unemployed — now at its lowest since December 2001.”

These findings come from a special Morgan Poll conducted in Australia on attitudes towards employment in the coming 12 months. In Australia, a cross-section of 649 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on June 10-11, 2009.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment estimate.)

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

1. Unemployment

Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in Australia to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”

Nearly three-quarters (70%, unchanged since Nov. 2008) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months — the equal highest since November 1990 (81%), 18% (down 2%) expect unemployment to fall, while 11% (up 39%) believe there will be no change, (1% didn’t know).

Expect Unemployment to…	Increase	Fall	No change	Don’t know
	%	%	%	%
Australia:
1975	64	21	15	*
1976	60	19	21	*
1977	64	20	16	*
1978	73	10	17	*
1979	69	10	21	*
1980	67	11	22	*
Dec ‘82	88	5	7	*
Oct ‘83	54	23	23	*
Nov ‘84	44	30	26	*
Nov ‘85	49	27	24	*
Nov ‘86	63	13	24	*
Dec ‘87	59	16	25	*
Nov ‘88	48	22	30	*
Nov ‘89	50	18	32	*
Nov ‘90	81	10	9	*
Aug ‘91	65	17	18	*
Nov ‘91	62	22	16	*
Jul ‘92	54	24	22	*
Nov ‘92	55	22	23	*
Nov ‘93	44	27	29	*
Nov ‘94	32	42	26	*
Nov ‘95	49	23	28	*
Jul ‘97	47	25	28	*
Nov ‘97	45	26	29	*
Nov ‘98	53	20	27	*
Nov ‘99	38	29	33	*
Dec ‘00	50	20	30	*
Dec ‘01	60	16	24	*
Dec ‘02	44	19	37	*
Dec ‘03	39	22	39	*
Dec ‘04	36	24	40	*
Nov ‘05	40	21	39	*
Nov ‘06	40	24	32	4
Oct ‘07	26	17	47	10
Nov ‘08	70	20	8	2
Jun ‘09	70	18	11	1

* “Don’t know” result included in “No change” Australia 1975-2005, New Zealand 1991-2005

2. Job Security in Australia

Those respondents who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”

Over three-quarters of Australians (77%, down 3% since Nov. ’08 — the lowest since December 2001) who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 21% (up 3% - and the highest since December 2001) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (unchanged) don’t know.

Job Security	Present job safe	Chance of unemployment	Don't know
	%	%	%
Australia:
1975	76	21	3
1976	78	17	5
1977	82	15	3
1978	79	19	2
1979	77	20	3
1980	73	23	4
Dec ‘82	72	25	3
Oct ‘83	79	18	3
Nov ‘84	82	17	1
Nov ‘85	79	18	3
Nov ‘86	80	17	3
Dec ‘87	80	18	2
Nov ‘88	81	18	1
Nov ‘89	82	17	1
Nov ‘90	70	28	2
Aug ‘91	70	28	2
Nov ‘91	69	27	4
Jul ‘92	69	29	2
Nov ‘92	65	32	3
Nov ‘93	73	25	2
Nov ‘94	74	22	4
Nov ‘95	74	23	3
Jul ‘97	73	24	3
Nov ‘97	77	21	2
Nov ‘98	81	16	3
Nov ‘99	74	25	1
Dec ‘00	75	20	5
Dec ‘01	75	22	3
Dec ‘02	79	20	1
Dec ‘03	78	20	2
Dec ’04	79	19	2
Nov ‘05	83	15	2
Nov ‘06	81	17	2
Oct ‘07	80	18	2
Nov ‘08	80	18	2
Jun ‘09	77	21	2

3. Finding a New Job If Unemployed

Full-time and part-time workers were then asked: “If you became unemployed, do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly — or do you think it might take longer?”

In Australia, 57% (down 6% since Nov. 2008 — the lowest since Dec. 2001) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly. Thirty-six per cent (up 2% — the highest since Dec. 2001) say it might take longer to find a new job, 4% (up 2%) wouldn’t look and 3% (up 2%) don’t know.

Finding a New Job if Unemployed	New job found quickly	May take longer	Wouldn't look	Don’t know
	%	%	%	%
Australia:
1975	57	33	10	*
1976	57	33	10	*
1977	55	35	10	*
1978	50	41	9	*
1979	54	36	10	*
1980	50	39	11	*
Dec ‘82	44	46	10	*
Oct ‘83	51	41	8	*
Nov ‘84	61	33	6	*
Nov ‘85	58	34	8	*
Nov ‘86	61	30	9	*
Dec ‘87	65	30	5	*
Nov ‘88	69	26	5	*
Nov ‘89	68	26	6	*
Nov ‘90	49	45	6	*
Aug ‘91	39	53	8	*
Nov ‘91	39	53	8	*
Jul ‘92	38	53	9	*
Nov ‘92	39	54	7	*
Nov ‘93	50	43	7	*
Nov ‘94	60	33	7	*
Nov ‘95	58	32	10	*
Jul ‘97	52	42	6	*
Nov ‘97	58	36	6	*
Nov ‘98	55	38	7	*
Nov ‘99	63	30	7	*
Dec ‘00	59	33	8	*
Dec ‘01	54	39	7	*
Dec ‘02	66	29	5	*
Dec ‘03	64	33	3	*
Dec ‘04	67	28	5	*
Nov ‘05	62	34	4	*
Nov ‘06	63	32	5	*
Oct ‘07	72	21	4	3
Nov ‘08	63	34	2	1
Jun ‘09	57	36	4	3

* “Don’t know” result included in “No change” Australia 1975-2006.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	*40%-60%*	*25% or 75%*	*10% or 90%*	*5% or 95%*
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.