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In mid June 2009 ALP primary support fell 0.5% to 48.5% and L-NP support rose 2% to 38% the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll shows. If a Federal Election were held now the Rudd Government would easily retain Government.

On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 57% (down 1%), while support for the L-NP is 43% (up 1%).

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 7% (down 1%), support for Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%) and Independents/Others 4% (down 1%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 131 (up 5pts) with 57% (up 2.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is “heading in the right direction,” compared to 26.5% (down 2.5%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.”

Although the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of June 13/14, 2009 is at 108.8 (down 2pts in a week), it is still up 4.1pts over the two weeks since May 30/31, 2009.

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite the higher than expected growth figures for the March Quarter GDP (up 0.4%), and the rise in the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating over the first two weeks of June (up 4.1pts to 108.8 since May 30/31), support for the Rudd Government has slipped slightly in mid June.

“During this period Joel Fitzgibbon became the first Rudd Government Minister forced to resign after ‘breaching’ the Rudd Government’s Ministerial code of conduct. Fitzgibbon’s resignation and Kevin Rudd’s use of the ‘ocker’ phrase ‘fair shake of the sauce bottle’ — which many saw as contrived, may explain the softening in ALP support.

“Although ALP support has fallen, the Rudd Government (57%, down 1%) maintains a comfortable election winning two-party preferred lead over the Opposition L-NP (43%, up 1%).”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,744 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

During the polling period:

• Early election? Absolutely not, says PM Rudd
  Prime Minister Kevin Rudd denies he is prepared to use any obstruction in the Senate as a trigger for a double-dissolution early election.
• Joel Fitzgibbon resigns as Defence Minister
  Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon has resigned from the frontbench after admitting he breached the ministerial code of conduct. His resignation follows other adverse publicity Fitzgibbon has received in recent months for failing to declare all “gifts” he has received since being in Government.
• Australia avoids recession with growth of 0.4% in March Quarter
  The ‘Lucky Country’ avoided recession during 2008 as the ABS announced that seasonally-adjusted Australian GDP grew by 0.4% in the March Quarter — confounding economists and analysts, most of whom had predicted Australia had entered recession in the latter part of 2008.
• Australian Interest Rates on hold at 3pc
  The RBA has left rates unchanged again, in another sign it is confident the worst of the global downturn has passed.
• World Health Organisation declares Swine Flu pandemic
  The World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared a global pandemic as swine flu now has major outbreaks in at least two different regions of the world — North America & Australasia.
• General Motors driven into bankruptcy court
  General Motors, the car giant that once symbolised American industrial might, has filed for bankruptcy. GM’s bankruptcy threatens thousands of jobs at subsidiaries like Opel and Holden around the world. Though Mar Reuss, Holden Australia’s managing director, says Holden will not be put on the chopping block as part of the bankruptcy process.
• President Obama reaches out to Muslim world
  US President Barack Obama made a landmark speech in Cairo to the Arab and Muslim world, apologising for past mistakes of the West and challenging the Middle East to confront its own shortcomings as Lebanon and Iran were set to go to the polls for key elections in recent weeks.
• Where to now? Rebuilding the system after Black Saturday
  A complete overhaul of Victoria bushfire fighting structure is required after the disaster of “Black Saturday” according to the Royal Commission investigating the disaster.
• US jobless rate hits 26-year high
  The US unemployment rate surged to a 26-year high of 9.4 per cent in May.
• Bodies found in Air France crash zone
  The Brazilian air force has recovered bodies identified as passengers from the Air France plane that crashed in the Atlantic Ocean last week, killing all 228 on board.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Note: National Party results are in brackets

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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