Rudd (52.5%, up 2.5%) still clearly preferred ALP leader over Gillard (23%, up 3%)
Hockey (25%, up 9%) overtakes Turnbull (21.5%, up 1%) to be preferred Liberal leader
| Finding No. 4395 -
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of July 1/2, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross section of 546 electors.:
July 03, 2009 |
A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (July 1/2, 2009) finds:
- Prime Minister Kevin Rudd still has a substantial lead as preferred ALP Leader over Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Rudd is preferred as ALP Leader by 52.5% (up 2.5% since May 20/21, 2009) of electors well ahead of Gillard (23%, up 3%). No other member of the ALP rates above 4%.
- Amongst ALP supporters Kevin Rudd is even more strongly preferred with 68% of ALP supporters preferring Rudd as ALP Leader ahead of Julia Gillard (20.5%). Of other contenders, only Wayne Swan (3.5%) has more than 2% support.
- After Peter Costello’s confirmation of his intention to resign at the next election, Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (25%, up 9%) is now the voter’s preferred Liberal Party leader ahead of current Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (21.5%, up 1%). Tony Abbott (16%, up 10.5%) and Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (11.5%, up 5.5%).
- However, amongst Liberal Party supporters Malcolm Turnbull’s support is stronger with 35% of L-NP supporters preferring Turnbull as Liberal Party leader ahead of Joe Hockey (26%), Tony Abbott (16%) and Julie Bishop (8.5%). No other Liberal rates above 2% support.
- If Prime Minister Rudd were to resign for any reason, Deputy PM Julia Gillard is clearly preferred as ALP Leader (51.5%, up 6.5%). Wayne Swan (9.5%, down 1.5%) is the next best preferred leader of the ALP, ahead of Lindsay Tanner (8.5%, unchanged), Stephen Smith (5.5%, down 2.5%) and Jenny Macklin (4%, up 2%). Gillard’s support among ALP voters (68%) is even stronger.
- If Mr Turnbull were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Hockey (34%, up 14%) is clearly preferred as the Liberal to replace him, ahead of Tony Abbott (22.5%, up 14.5%) and Julie Bishop (13.5%, up 5.5%).
- Overall, Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as Australia’s Prime Minister: 70% (up 9.5% since May 20/21, 2009) of electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than Mr Turnbull (20%, down 6.5%) while 10% (down 3%) can’t say or chose someone else. The full results of this Special Preferred Prime Minister Morgan Poll are available here.
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest Morgan Poll survey of the electorate’s preferred leaders clearly shows Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (52.5%, up 2.5%) as preferred ALP leader ahead of his deputy Julia Gillard (23%, up 3%).
“Looking at the Liberal Party the support Peter Costello has had in previous Morgan Polls on preferred Liberal Party leader has not gone to Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (21.5%, up 1%), but rather the people around him including Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (25%, up 9%), Tony Abbott (16%, up 10.5%) and Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop (11.5%, up 5.5%) who are all now attracting significant support.”
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of July 1/2, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross section of 546 electors.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.
Preferred Labor Leader
Respondents were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”
|
|
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
|
|
Feb. 21/22, 2008 |
Sep. 10/11, 2008 |
Dec. 17/18,
2008 |
May 20/21,
2009 |
July 1/2,
2009 |
ALP |
L-NP |
The Greens# |
Family First # |
Ind / Other# |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Rudd |
66 |
49 |
60 |
50 |
52.5 |
68 |
39 |
39 |
100 |
47 |
|
Gillard |
15 |
21 |
19 |
20 |
23 |
20.5 |
22 |
47 |
0 |
17.5 |
|
Tanner |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
8 |
5 |
0 |
4.5 |
|
Smith |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5.5 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
0 |
4.5 |
|
Macklin |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
0 |
5 |
|
Swan |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
|
Shorten |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
0.5 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3.5 |
|
Someone else |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Can’t say |
9 |
12 |
8 |
10.5 |
10 |
3.5 |
15 |
1.5 |
0 |
18 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
* Less than 0.5%
|
|
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Sex and Age |
|
|
Feb. 21/22, 2008 |
Sep. 10/11, 2008 |
Dec. 17/18,
2008 |
May 20/21,
2009 |
July 1/2,
2009 |
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50+ |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Rudd |
66 |
49 |
60 |
50 |
52.5 |
55 |
50.5 |
50 |
58.5 |
53.5 |
50 |
|
Gillard |
15 |
21 |
19 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
24.5 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
24.5 |
23.5 |
|
Tanner |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5.5 |
4 |
5.5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
6.5 |
|
Smith |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5.5 |
3.5 |
4 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
5 |
|
Macklin |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
2 |
3 |
|
Swan |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
|
Shorten |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
0 |
|
Someone else |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.5 |
|
Can’t say |
9 |
13 |
8 |
10.5 |
10 |
7.5 |
11.5 |
15.5 |
7 |
11.5 |
8.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
* Less than 0.5%
Preferred Labor Leader other than Kevin Rudd
Respondents who preferred Kevin Rudd as ALP Leader were then asked:
“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Julia Gillard,Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin, Lindsay Tanner?”
The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Kevin Rudd.
|
|
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
|
|
Feb. 21/22, 2008 |
Sep. 10/11, 2008 |
Dec. 17/18,
2008 |
May 20/21,
2009 |
July 1/2,
2009 |
ALP |
L-NP |
The Greens# |
Family First # |
Ind / Other# |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Gillard |
50 |
44 |
50 |
45 |
51.5 |
68 |
32.5 |
74.5 |
25 |
38.5 |
|
Swan |
8 |
12 |
13 |
11 |
9.5 |
10.5 |
9 |
0.5 |
36.5 |
3.5 |
|
Tanner |
6 |
6 |
6 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
4.5 |
13 |
8 |
19.5 |
12 |
|
Smith |
5 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
5.5 |
2 |
11 |
4 |
0 |
8.5 |
|
Macklin |
5 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
19 |
5 |
|
Shorten |
5 |
5 |
2 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
3.5 |
|
Someone else |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
0 |
1.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Can’t say |
20 |
18 |
18 |
18.5 |
17.5 |
9.5 |
25.5 |
7.5 |
0 |
29 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
* Less than 0.5%
|
|
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Sex and Age |
|
|
Feb. 21/22, 2008 |
Sep. 10/11, 2008 |
Dec. 17/18,
2008 |
May 20/21,
2009 |
July 1/2,
2009 |
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50+ |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Gillard |
50 |
44 |
50 |
45 |
51.5 |
47.5 |
55 |
42.5 |
55.5 |
52.5 |
51 |
|
Swan |
8 |
12 |
13 |
11 |
9.5 |
12.5 |
6.5 |
15.5 |
10 |
9.5 |
7.5 |
|
Tanner |
6 |
6 |
6 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
11.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
6 |
6 |
11.5 |
|
Smith |
5 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
5.5 |
6 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
8 |
|
Macklin |
5 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
2.5 |
6 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
4 |
3 |
|
Shorten |
5 |
5 |
2 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
|
Someone else |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
Can’t say |
20 |
18 |
18 |
18.5 |
17.5 |
15.5 |
19.5 |
23 |
17.5 |
18.5 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Preferred Coalition Leader
Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”
|
|
Brendan Nelson
as Opposition Leader |
Malcolm Turnbull
as Opposition Leader |
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
|
|
Feb. 21/22, 2008 |
Sep. 10/11, 2008 |
Dec. 17/18,
2008 |
May 20/21,
2009 |
July 1/2,
2009 |
ALP |
L-NP |
The Greens# |
Family First# |
Ind/ Other# |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Hockey |
13 |
11 |
12 |
16 |
25 |
27 |
26 |
27.5 |
19.5 |
17 |
|
Turnbull |
24 |
20 |
28 |
20.5 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
35 |
23 |
41.5 |
18.5 |
|
Abbott |
6 |
7 |
6 |
5.5 |
16 |
16.5 |
16 |
7 |
0 |
23.5 |
|
Bishop |
7 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
11.5 |
15 |
8.5 |
3 |
39 |
7.5 |
|
Robb |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
12.5 |
0 |
13 |
|
Pyne |
na |
na |
na |
na |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4.5 |
0 |
4 |
|
Costello^ |
18 |
31 |
28 |
35.5 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Nelson^ |
9 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Someone else |
2 |
1 |
* |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0 |
0 |
|
Cant’ say |
11 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
18 |
21.5 |
9.5 |
20 |
0 |
16.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;
^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both announced that they will not stand for re-election at the next Federal Election.
|
|
Brendan Nelson
as Opposition Leader |
Malcolm Turnbull
as Opposition Leader |
Analysis by Sex and Age |
|
|
Feb. 21/22, 2008 |
Sep. 10/11, 2008 |
Dec. 17/18,
2008 |
May 20/21,
2009 |
July 1/2,
2009 |
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50+ |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Hockey |
13 |
11 |
12 |
16 |
25 |
26 |
24 |
25 |
30 |
25 |
23 |
|
Turnbull |
24 |
20 |
28 |
20.5 |
21.5 |
24 |
19.5 |
20.5 |
19.5 |
20.5 |
24 |
|
Abbott |
6 |
7 |
6 |
5.5 |
16 |
19 |
12.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
15 |
14 |
|
Bishop |
7 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
11.5 |
8 |
14.5 |
9.5 |
15 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
|
Robb |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
3.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
2 |
0 |
3.5 |
6 |
|
Pyne |
na |
na |
na |
na |
3 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Costello^ |
18 |
31 |
28 |
35.5 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Nelson^ |
9 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Someone else |
2 |
1 |
* |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
|
Cant’ say |
11 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
18 |
14.5 |
22 |
24 |
15 |
22 |
15 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;
^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both announced that they will not stand for re-election at the next Federal Election.
Preferred Coalition Leader other than Malcolm Turnbull
Respondents who preferred Malcolm Turnbull were then asked:
“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Peter Costello, Brendan Nelson, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb?”
The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Malcolm Turnbull.
|
|
Brendan Nelson
as Opposition Leader* |
Malcolm Turnbull
as Opposition Leader |
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
|
|
Feb. 21/22, 2008 |
Sep. 10/11, 2008 |
Dec. 17/18,
2008 |
May 20/21,
2009 |
July 1/2,
2009 |
ALP |
L-NP |
The Greens# |
Family First # |
Ind/ Other# |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Turnbull* |
26 |
22 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Hockey |
14 |
12 |
18 |
20 |
34 |
31 |
43 |
30 |
19.5 |
27 |
|
Abbott |
7 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
22.5 |
20.5 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
17 |
27.5 |
|
Bishop |
8 |
10 |
11 |
8 |
13.5 |
16.5 |
10.5 |
8 |
44 |
7.5 |
|
Robb |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
15 |
19.5 |
13 |
|
Pyne |
na |
na |
na |
na |
3.5 |
4 |
3 |
4.5 |
0 |
4 |
|
Costello^ |
19 |
33 |
37 |
40.5 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Nelson*^ |
na |
na |
10 |
6.5 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Someone else |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
|
Cant’ say |
12 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
20.5 |
22.5 |
12 |
25 |
0 |
21 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;
*For these two Morgan Polls the question asked excluded then Opposition Leader Dr. Brendan Nelson;
^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both announced that they will not stand for re-election at the next Federal Election.
|
|
Brendan Nelson
as Opposition Leader* |
Malcolm Turnbull
as Opposition Leader |
Analysis by Sex and Age |
|
|
Feb. 21/22, 2008 |
Sep. 10/11, 2008 |
Dec. 17/18,
2008 |
May 20/21,
2009 |
July 1/2,
2009 |
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50+ |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Turnbull* |
26 |
22 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Hockey |
14 |
12 |
18 |
20 |
34 |
37.5 |
30.5 |
32 |
35 |
32 |
35.5 |
|
Abbott |
7 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
22.5 |
26 |
19 |
21.5 |
26.5 |
22.5 |
21 |
|
Bishop |
8 |
10 |
11 |
8 |
13.5 |
9.5 |
17.5 |
13 |
18.5 |
14 |
11 |
|
Robb |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
0 |
5.5 |
7 |
|
Pyne |
na |
na |
na |
na |
3.5 |
4.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
Costello^ |
19 |
33 |
37 |
40.5 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Nelson*^ |
na |
na |
10 |
6.5 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
Someone else |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
|
Cant’ say |
12 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
20.5 |
16 |
23.5 |
28 |
18 |
22.5 |
17 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;
*For these two Morgan Polls the question asked excluded then Opposition Leader Dr. Brendan Nelson;
^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both announced that they will not stand for re-election at the next Federal Election.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.
|
