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Now 70% (up 9.5% since May 20/21, 2009) of Australian electors prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister, 20% (down 6.5% since May 20/21, 2009) prefer Malcolm Turnbull while 10% (down 3%) are undecided or prefer someone else. According to this special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (July 1/2, 2009).

This Morgan Poll also finds 63% (up 5.5% since May 20/21, 2009) of electors approve of the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister, 29% (down 4.5%) disapprove and 8% (down 1%) are undecided.

Electors’ approval of Malcolm Turnbull has dropped significantly in recent weeks, now 25% (down 18% since May 20/21, 2009) of electors approve of Turnbull, while 62.5% (up 23.5%) of Australians disapprove and only 12.5% (down 5.5%) are undecided about Turnbull’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader.

Analysis by voting intention shows that of ALP supporters 93.5% (up 5% since May 20/21, 2009) approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job, only 4% (down 1.5%) disapprove and 2.5% (down 3.5%) are undecided.

In comparison, more L-NP supporters disapprove (46%, up 16% since May 20/21, 2009) of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling is job than approve (42%, down 14%) while 12% (down 2%) are undecided.

Better Prime Minister — Rudd v Turnbull

	Rudd v Turnbull
	Sep. 10/11, 2008#	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mr. Rudd	63	55	62.5	69	60.5	70
Mr. Turnbull	24	30	24	20	26.5	20
Rudd lead	39	25	38.5	49	34	50
Other / Can’t say	13	15	13.5	11	13	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party on September 16, 2008; this Special Morgan Poll was taken with Rudd v Turnbull before Turnbull became Leader of the Opposition.

Gary Morgan says:

“The recent ‘Ute-gate’ affair has consolidated Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s standing in the minds of the Australian electorate. Rudd (70%, up 9.5% since May 20/21, 2009) has significantly increased his lead as Better Prime Minister over Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (20%, down 6.5%).

“Approval for Kevin Rudd’s handling of the job as Prime Minister (63%, up 5.5%) remains well ahead of approval for Malcolm Turnbull’s handing of the job as Opposition Leader (25%, down 18%).

“Disapproval for Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader (62.5%, up 23.5%) is higher than the record high reached by Simon Crean in his brief stint as Opposition Leader in 2003 — when his disapproval rating reached 60%. However 62.5% is only 2.5% higher than the 60% disapproval rating received in early 1988 by Liberal Opposition Leader John Howard who went on to be Australian Prime Minister for 11 1/2 years.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of July 1/2, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross section of 546 electors.

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Turnbull.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Turnbull?”

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader					Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	55	62.5	69	60.5	70	96	35.5	91.5	100	71.5
Turnbull	30	24	20	26.5	20	2.5	49	0	0	12.5
Rudd lead	25	38.5	49	34	50	93.5	(13.5)	91.5	100	59
Other / Neither	15	13.5	11	13	10	1.5	15.5	8.5	0	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader					Analysis by Sex and Age
	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	55	62.5	69	60.5	70	69	70.5	73	81	74	61
Turnbull	30	24	20	26.5	20	22	17.5	18	12.5	16.5	26
Rudd lead	25	38.5	49	34	50	47	53	55	68.5	57.5	35
Other / Neither	15	13.5	11	13	10	9	12	9	6.5	9.5	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Hockey

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Hockey.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Hockey?”

	Joe Hockey as Shadow Treasurer		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	64	64	87.5	34.5	82	100	59
Hockey	22	23	5	51	12	0	16
Rudd lead	42	41	82.5	(16.5)	70	100	43
Other / Neither	14	13	7.5	14.5	6	0	25
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Joe Hockey as Shadow Treasurer		Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	64	64	68.5	60	71	71	70	54.5
Hockey	22	23	24	22.5	11.5	20	20.5	29.5
Rudd lead	42	41	44.5	37.5	59.5	51	49.5	25
Other / Neither	14	13	7.5	17.5	17.5	9	9.5	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval of Leaders — Kevin Rudd v Malcolm Turnbull

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

	Prime Minister Rudd
	Feb. 20/21, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct .15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	71	56	55	64	68	57.5	63
Disapprove	14	33	31	23	21	33.5	29
Approve - Disapprove	57	23	24	41	47	24	34
Other / Can’t say	15	11	14	13	11	9	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	July 1/2, 2009	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	63	93.5	32.5	56	75	52.5
Disapprove	29	4	55.5	29.5	25	37
Approve - Disapprove	34	89.5	(23)	26.5	50	15.5
Other / Can’t say	8	2.5	12	14.5	25	10.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 1/2, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	63	64.5	62	67.5	68.5	67	57
Disapprove	29	29	28.5	25	23	25.5	34.5
Approve - Disapprove	34	35.5	33.5	42.5	45.5	41.5	22.5
Other / Can’t say	8	6.5	9.5	7.5	8.5	7.5	8.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Malcolm Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader
	Feb. 20/21, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	32	38	43	55	42	43	25
Disapprove	42	44	24	24	37.5	39	62.5
Approve - Disapprove	(10)	(6)	19	31	4.5	4	(37.5)
Other / Can’t say	26	18	33	21	20.5	18	12.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	July 1/2, 2009	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	25	15.5	42	10.5	35.5	19.5
Disapprove	62.5	73.5	46	83	64.5	68.5
Approve - Disapprove	(37.5)	(58)	(4)	(72.5)	(29)	(49)
Other / Can’t say	12.5	11	12	6.5	0	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 1/2, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	25	27.5	23	30.5	20	25	26
Disapprove	62.5	62.5	63	49	66.5	65.5	62.5
Approve - Disapprove	(37.5)	(35)	(40)	(18.5)	(46.5)	(40.5)	(36.5)
Other / Can’t say	12.5	10	14	20.5	13.5	9.5	11.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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