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Click here to purchase a detailed demographic breakdown of Australian attitudes to Global Warming and Carbon Emissions

The issue before Federal Parliament this week is the proposed Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme. While 55% of Australians aged 14+ approve of this legislation and just 24% disapprove of this legislation, the research conducted by Roy Morgan Research shows a wide range of views on the complex issue of Carbon Emissions Trading.

Detailed analysis of views along voting lines shows although heavy majorities of supporters of all major parties believe carbon emissions are a contributor to Global Warming (ALP — 86%; L-NP — 76%; Greens — 91%), there are clear differences in opinion about whether the proposed carbon emissions trading scheme legislation is the right way to deal with the issue.

When told “There’s proposed legislation before Federal Parliament for a carbon emissions trading scheme to be introduced in Australia." And asked “Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?” clear majorities of ALP (62%) and Greens (60%) supporters approve of the Government’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme while only 49% of L-NP supporters approve of the legislation.

The range of views on this complex issue is further evident from the concerns people expressed about the legislation, for instance “It’s the commodification of pollution. It is not going to change Global Warming, it makes pollution into a kind of currency”  “There’s too much leeway for the big polluters, too many companies asking for special consideration”, “Carbon trading does not really help the pollution problem” “There are better ways to combat Global Warming,  “We’re rushing into it too fast and for political reasons only”,  “Its nothing more than another tax raising exercise — we’re getting a bit arrogant to think we can reverse the effects of Global Warming”, “There’s more important things to do.” “I think it’s the wrong legislation and we need to go back and have another think”, “The legislation is flawed” “It’s a false economy”, “I don’t have enough information about it”,  “There’s not enough explanation of how it will work.”,  “Everyone should be responsible for themselves”, “Australia is not like China — China does the polluting.”

Analysis of concerns about the legislation among supporters of the different political parties shows:

• The most prominent reasons for disapproving of the legislation given by ALP supporters were that “It costs too much” and “doesn’t go far enough.”(both 2.5% of ALP voters);
• Greens supporters said “It doesn’t stop pollution/ carbon emissions” (7.5%) and “Doesn’t go far enough” (5.5%).
• Liberal supporters who disapproved said “Australia should wait for the rest of the World to act,” and “Don’t believe in Global Warming” (both 6.0%), “It costs too much” (5.5%), and “It doesn’t stop pollution/ carbon emissions” and “It’s not fair” (both 3.5%).
• National Party supporters disapproved because “It costs too much” (10.5%), “Carbon emissions are not responsible for Global Warming” (6.5%) and “Global Warming isn’t a problem/ bad for Australia” (6%)

These are the main insights from the special telephone Morgan Poll conducted on the evenings of August 5/6, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 687 men and women aged 14 or over. Respondents were asked a series of questions about Global Warming and the proposed Australian responses to address this issue — including in relation to the proposed carbon emissions trading scheme.

Latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, conducted over the weekends of July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 and released last Friday (August 7, 2009), shows the ALP (60.5%) well ahead of the L-NP (39.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

Michele Levine says:

“Liberal supporters (43%) are the most likely to say about Global Warming that ‘Concerns are exaggerated’ — far more than either ALP supporters (25%) or Greens supporters (7%). Interestingly however, polling of National Party supporters shows 76% say either ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’(55%) or ‘It is already too late (21%) — far higher than their Coalition partners, the Liberals (a total of 52% for either of these statements).

“The extended droughts experienced by much of Australia in recent years may be having a stronger impact on rural views of Global Warming than many appreciate.”

To purchase a detailed demographic report on all questions asked in this report please visit the Roy Morgan Online Store.

Views about Global Warming

Respondents were asked: “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming? Do you think: Concerns are exaggerated; if we don’t act now it will be too late; it is already too late?”

A majority, 64%, of ALP supporters say “If we don’t act now it will be too late” when asked “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming,” compared to 70% of Greens supporters and 45% of L-NP supporters — including 55% of National supporters.

A similar amount of L-NP supporters (41%) say “Concerns are exaggerated” compared to 25% of ALP supporters and just 7% of Greens supporters while just 8% of ALP supporters and 9% of L-NP supporters say “It is already too late” compared to a significantly higher 20% of Greens supporters.

“Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming?

	Total all people aged 14+				Analysis by Voting Preference
	April 2006	Nov 2008	May 20/21, 2009	Aug 5/6, 2009	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat#	Green	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Concerns are exaggerated	13	19	26	27	25	41	43	24	7	72	27	20
If we don’t act now it will be too late	67	64	58	58	64	45	44	55	70	14	60	60
It is already too late	15	14	12	11	8	9	8	21	20	14	8	14
Can’t say	5	3	4	4	3	5	5	0	3	0	5	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Views about Australia’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme

Respondents were then asked: “There’s proposed legislation before Federal Parliament for a carbon emissions trading scheme to be introduced in Australia. Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?”

	Total all people  aged 14+	Analysis by Voting Preference
	Aug 5/6, 2009	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat#	Green	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Approve	55	62	49	49	45	60	42	38	53
Disapprove	24	21	34	34	29	16	33	37	17
Don’t Understand	14	11	11	10	26	15	15	20	22
Can’t say	7	6	6	7	0	9	10	5	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Respondents who disapproved of the legislation were then asked: “Why especially do you say that?”

	Total all people  aged 14+
	Aug 5/6, 2009
	(%)
Australia should wait for the World to act	3
Costs too much	3
Doesn’t stop pollution/ carbon emissions	3
Don’t believe in Global Warming	2.5
Carbon emissions are not responsible for Global Warming	2
Australia can’t make a difference anyway	1.5
Global Warming is not a problem/ Isn’t bad for Australia	1.5
Not fair	1.5
The legislation is wrong/ not good/ needs a rethink; There are better methods	1
Unfair distribution of carbon credits; Too much leeway; Special consideration given to certain companies	1
I’m not convinced by the arguments; Need more proof; More research needs  to be done	1
The public doesn’t have enough info	1
Job losses; The jobs lost won’t be replaced	1
We’re rushing into it; Not prepared for it	1
Its exaggerated/ Scaremongering	1
They’re only doing it for political reasons	0.5
It does not benefit families/ average people	0.5
The opportunity for corruption/ union payoffs	0.5
Its another tax/ revenue raising exercise	0.5
I am suspicious of them/ They cover things up	0.5
Its bad for the environment/ Global Warming	0.5
Additional taxes; No economic assistance for farmers	0.5
Its bad for the Australian economy	*
There are more important issues for Australia	*
Other	3
Can’t say	1.5
Total asked question (Disapprove of legislation)	24
Doesn’t go far enough	2.5
Total not asked (Approve of legislation)	76
Total	100

The research conducted for these questions was both qualitative (in that people were asked to use their own words) and quantitative (in that the ‘open-ended’ responses were analysed and ‘coded’ so that the results could be counted and reported as percentages).

Detailed breakdowns of this question along party lines and other key demographics, along with all questions asked as part of this research, are available to purchase on the Roy Morgan Online Store.

Carbon emissions — a contributor to global warming

Respondents were then asked: “Do you believe carbon emissions are a contributor to Global Warming?”

Strong majorities of ALP supporters (86%), L-NP supporters (76%) and Greens supporters (91%) believe carbon emissions are a contributor to Global Warming while 67% of ALP supporters, 50% of L-NP supporters (including a high 76% of National supporters) and 75% of Greens supporters believe carbon emissions are a ‘major contributor’ to Global Warming.

“Do you believe carbon emissions are a contributor to Global Warming?”

	Total all people  aged 14+	Analysis by Voting Preference
	Aug 5/6, 2009	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat#	Green	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Yes	83	86	76	75	86	91	42	74	85
No	10	7	15	15	14	4	33	17	8
Can’t say	7	7	9	10	0	5	25	9	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Respondents who answered “Yes” were then asked: “A major contributor or a minor contributor to Global Warming?”

“A major contributor or a minor contributor to Global Warming?”

	Total all people  aged 14+	Analysis by Voting Preference
	Aug 5/6, 2009	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat#	Green	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Major	60	67	50	47	76	75	0	61	59
Minor	17	16	21	22	10	7	42	4	19
Can’t say	6	3	5	6	0	9	0	9	7
Not asked*	17	14	24	25	14	9	58	26	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*This question was not asked of those who answered no or can’t say to the previous question.

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

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