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A fifth of Australians (20%, down 1% since June 1989) believe Indonesia is Australia’s “Biggest Security Threat” according to a special Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted in mid August 2009. Australians were asked, “In your opinion are there any countries which are a threat to Australia’s security?” If Yes: “Which countries? Which others?”

Other countries to figure prominently included Iraq (12%), Afghanistan (10%), China (8%), Iran and North Korea (both 7%).

Comparing these results with those of 20 years ago — at the time of the Tiananmen Square protests of early June 1989 shows Australians are far less worried about Cold War rivals China (8%, down 8% from June 1989) and Russia (1%, down 6%).

Longstanding Australian ally Japan is also perceived as much less of a threat these days with only 1% (down 13%) of Australians saying Japan is a threat to Australia’s security.

In total, 55% (up 3% since June 1989) of Australians say that there are countries which are a threat to Australia’s security compared to 39% (down 1%) of Australians that say there are no countries which are a threat to Australia’s security. Only 6% (down 2%) can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“Australians believe Indonesia (20%, down 1% since June 1989) remains the biggest threat to Australia’s security — twenty years after Roy Morgan last asked Australians for their views on threats to Australian security.

“Iraq and Afghanistan — neither of which rated a mention twenty years ago — are also clearly rated as Australia’s next biggest security threats. These two countries have been in the headlines this decade as Australian troops have been sent to conflicts in both countries. Although Australian forces have withdrawn from Iraq, over 1,000 Australian troops are still in Afghanistan.

“Australians have far different perceptions of Australia’s two biggest trading partners, China and Japan, than they did 20 years ago. Although Australians are less worried about both countries, there still remains a significant number of Australians that view China (8%, down 8%) as a security threat whilst only a handful are now worried about Japan (1%, down 13%).”

Respondents were asked:  “In your opinion are there any countries which are a threat to Australia’s security?” If YES: “Which countries? Which others?” Respondents were able to name more than one country.

These findings come from a special Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted with a cross-section of 687 Australian men and women aged 14 or over interviewed in mid August 2009.

Security threats to Australia

Respondents were asked: “In your opinion are there any countries which are a threat to Australia’s security? If YES: Which countries? Which others?” Respondents were able to name more than one country.

	Total all people aged 14+
Countries threatening Australia	July 1982	May 1984	May 1987	May 1989	June 1989	Aug 2009
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Indonesia	17	17	16	21	21	20
Iraq	*	*	*	*	*	12
Afghanistan	*	*	*	*	*	10
China	7	7	3	7	16	8
Iran	*	*	*	*	*	7
North Korea	*	*	*	*	*	7
Pakistan	*	*	*	*	*	6
Somalia	*	*	*	*	*	6
Arab/ Middle Eastern Countries	*	*	*	*	*	6
America	6	7	8	8	5	3
Lebanon	*	*	*	*	*	3
Muslim/ Islamic Countries	*	*	*	*	*	2
Japan	5	2	3	21	14	1
Russia	26	14	17	9	7	1
Libya	*	1	21	3	2	*
Other Countries	11	6	11	12	10	12
Total said a threat#	51	53	54	52	52	55
No threat	37	37	38	40	40	39
Can’t Say	12	10	8	8	8	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Note: Number of countries named adds to more than “Total said a threat” as respondents could name more than one country.

* Less than 0.5%

Analysis by Sex & Age

	Total all people  aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Aug 2009	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Indonesia	20	21	19	-	9	11	21	30
Iraq	12	10	13	13	13	14	11	11
Afghanistan	10	8	12	5	4	10	11	12
China	8	9	8	3	6	5	9	10
Iran	7	8	6	-	5	-	9	10
North Korea	7	9	5	-	7	9	5	8
Pakistan	6	8	4	2	3	-	6	8
Somalia	6	4	7		2	2	10	7
Arab/ Middle Eastern Countries	6	2	9	-	6	4	5	7
America	3	4	3	3	5	2	6	2
Lebanon	3	2	3	2	1	3	4	3
Muslim/ Islamic Countries	2	2	3	-	-	2	2	4
Japan	1	1	1	3	3	-	1	1
Russia	1	-	1	-	-	2	-	-
Other Countries	12	13	12	7	9	7	15	14
Total said a threat#	55	54	55	28	43	46	58	64
No threat	39	40	38	67	41	46	38	32
Can’t Say	6	6	7	5	16	8	4	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Note: Number of countries named adds to more than “Total said a threat” as respondents could name more than one country.

Analysis by States & Regions

	Total all people  aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	Aug 2009	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Indonesia	20	20	19	19	14	28	25	23	-
Iraq	12	10	15	13	10	14	10	11	4
Afghanistan	10	11	9	10	9	14	7	7	10
China	8	7	10	7	6	10	7	15	16
Iran	7	8	5	5	8	8	7	8	4
North Korea	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	4
Pakistan	6	7	4	9	3	4	7	7	-
Somalia	6	6	5	6	6	6	3	7	4
Arab/ Middle Eastern Countries	6	6	6	5	3	9	4	9	15
America	3	3	3	1	6	3	2	5	4
Lebanon	3	2	3	3	2	3	1	4	1
Muslim/ Islamic Countries	2	2	2	2	3	3	5	1	4
Japan	1	1	2	1	2	1	-	1	-
Russia	1	1	-	-	1	-	2	-	-
Other Countries	12	12	13	13	8	18	7	15	10
Total said a threat#	55	51	60	53	47	64	63	57	47
No threat	39	42	34	42	47	26	31	37	41
Can’t Say	6	7	6	5	6	10	6	6	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Note: Number of countries named adds to more than “Total said a threat” as respondents could name more than one country.

Analysis by Voting Intention

	Total all people  aged 14+	Analysis by Voting Intention
	Aug 2009	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat	Green	Family First	Can’t Say
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Indonesia	20	21	25	24	29	20	42	11
Iraq	12	14	12	13	2	1	-	11
Afghanistan	10	14	11	11	9	5	13	6
China	8	7	12	11	18	7	13	5
Iran	7	8	7	8	0	2	-	4
North Korea	7	10	8	8	6	3	14	3
Pakistan	6	10	4	4	-	4	-	4
Somalia	6	7	8	8	2	3	-	1
Arab/ Middle Eastern Countries	6	5	6	6	5	4	-	8
America	3	4	1	1	-	9	-	4
Lebanon	3	2	4	3	14	-	14	2
Muslim/ Islamic Countries	2	2	4	4	7	-	-	1
Japan	1	1	1	1	-	1	-	2
Russia	1	1	1	1	-	-	-	1
Other Countries	12	13	12	12	14	11	14	12
Total said a threat#	55	60	60	59	66	46	42	43
No threat	39	36	34	34	34	46	58	47
Can’t Say	6	4	6	7	-	8	-	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Note: Number of countries named adds to more than “Total said a threat” as respondents could name more than one country.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

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