New Zealand National-led Government loses ground 56% (down 4%)
But retain a strong lead over Opposition Parties 44% (up 4%)
| Finding No. 4417 -
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 854 electors from August 31 – September 13, 2009. Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 1%) did not name a party.:
September 18, 2009 |
The latest NZ Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government is 56% (down 4%) comprising National Party 51.5% (down 5%), Maori Party 2.5% (up 1%), ACT NZ 2% (up 0.5 %) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted August 31 - September 13, 2009.
Support for Opposition parties is 44% (up 4%); Labour Party 33% (up 4%), Greens 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 2.5% (up 1%) and the Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged).
Despite the drop in support for the National-led Government and the increase in support for Labour, if an Election were held today the National Party would win easily.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 143 (down 0.5 points) with 67.5% (up 2%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24.5% (up 2.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
During the same period the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is up 5.5pts to 120.0.
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest NZ Morgan Poll shows a slump in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National-led Government 56% (down 4%). Key’s National Party has also lost ground — 51.5%, down 5%. This is the largest fall for either Key since becoming Prime Minister nearly a year ago.
“The falls in support for National have been matched by strong rises for the main Opposition Labour Party 33.5% (up 4%). Strong media interest in the Labour Party’s Annual Conference last weekend, the first since Phil Goff became Opposition Leader after last year’s election defeat, has provided the Labour Party with some much needed public awareness — which has resulted in Labour’s jump in this week’s NZ Morgan Poll.
“Despite the drop in support for National, 67.5% (up 2%) of New Zealanders say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ and the jump in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (up 5.5pts to 120.0) during the past two weeks suggests New Zealanders are still broadly positive.”
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 854 electors from August 31 — September 13, 2009. Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 1%) did not name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
National |
Labour |
Green
Party |
ACT NZ |
Maori
Party* |
United
Future |
NZ First |
Progressive Party |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
20.9 |
41.3 |
7 |
7.1 |
n/a |
6.7 |
10.4 |
1.7 |
4.9 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
39.1 |
41.1 |
5.3 |
1.51 |
2.12 |
2.67 |
5.72 |
1.16 |
1.32 |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
44.93 |
33.99 |
6.72 |
3.65 |
2.39 |
0.87 |
4.07 |
0.91 |
2.47 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
44 |
32.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
47 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
48 |
33 |
8 |
3 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
48 |
31 |
9 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
48.5 |
32 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
56 |
26 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
54.5 |
29 |
8 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
50.5 |
28 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
^ |
1 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
50 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
^ |
0.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
55 |
30.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
52 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
52 |
31 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
52 |
33 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
54 |
31.5 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
52 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
^ |
1 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
53.5 |
34 |
7 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
^ |
^ |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
53.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
^ |
^ |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
56.5 |
29.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v All Opposition Parties
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
National Party-led
Government* |
Opposition
Parties# |
| |
% |
% |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
51.84 |
48.16 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
54 |
46 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
55 |
45 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
58 |
42 |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
60 |
40 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
*Coalition Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Progressive Party, NZ First, Other
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of Helen Clark): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Apr 7-20,
2008 |
April 21-May 4, 2008 |
May 5-18,
2008 |
May 19-June 1, 2008 |
June 2-15, 2008 |
June 16-29, 2008 |
June 30-July 13, 2008 |
July 14-27, 2008 |
July 28-Aug 10, 2008 |
Aug 18-31, 2008 |
Sep 1-14, 2008 |
Sep 15-Oct 5, 2008 |
Oct 6-19,
2008 |
Oct 20-Nov 2,
2008 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50.5 |
44.5 |
38 |
38 |
42.5 |
37 |
36.5 |
38.5 |
44.5 |
50.5 |
44 |
48 |
53 |
51.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
34.5 |
40.5 |
44.5 |
44.5 |
40.5 |
49 |
49.5 |
47 |
41 |
35.5 |
41 |
39.5 |
34.5 |
35 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
116 |
104.5 |
93.5 |
93.5 |
102 |
88 |
87 |
91.5 |
103.5 |
115 |
103 |
108.5 |
118.5 |
116.5 |
|
Can’t say |
15 |
15 |
17.5 |
17.5 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
14 |
15 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
13.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Nov 3-16,
2008 |
Nov 17-30,
2008 |
Dec 1-14,
2008 |
Jan 2-18,
2009 |
Jan 19-Feb 1,
2009 |
Feb 2-15,
2009 |
Feb 16-Mar 1,
2009 |
Mar 2-15,
2009 |
Mar 23-Apr 5,
2009 |
Apr 6-19,
2009 |
Apr 20-May 3,
2009 |
May 4-17,
2009 |
May 18-31,
2009 |
June 1-14,
2009 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54 |
66 |
63 |
67 |
65 |
63.5 |
69 |
67.5 |
65 |
68.5 |
66.5 |
67.5 |
65.5 |
69 |
|
Wrong direction |
31 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
20 |
22 |
17 |
20 |
19.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
123 |
147 |
143 |
148 |
145 |
143 |
150.5 |
147.5 |
143 |
151.5 |
146.5 |
148 |
145.5 |
150.5 |
|
Can’t say |
15 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
13 |
14.5 |
13.5 |
13 |
14.5 |
12.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
June 22-July 5,
2009 |
July 6-19,
2009 |
July 20-Aug 2,
2009 |
Aug 3-16,
2009 |
Aug 17-30,
2009 |
Aug 31-Sep 13,
2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
63 |
66.5 |
66 |
66.5 |
65.5 |
67.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
23 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
21.5 |
22 |
24.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
140 |
146 |
147.5 |
145 |
143.5 |
143 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
14 |
13 |
15.5 |
12 |
12.5 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
Finding No. 4417 is taken from Computer Report No. 2293
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4417 is taken from Computer Report No. 2293
|
