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 A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (October 7/8, 2009) finds:

• Prime Minister Kevin Rudd retains a substantial lead as preferred ALP Leader over Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Rudd is preferred as ALP Leader by 51% (down 1.5% since July 1/2, 2009) of electors well ahead of Gillard (22%, down 1%). No other member of the ALP rates above 5%.

• Amongst ALP voters Kevin Rudd is even more strongly preferred with 70% of ALP voters preferring Rudd as ALP Leader ahead of Julia Gillard (19%). Of other contenders, only Wayne Swan (3%) has more than 2% support.

• Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (30%, up 5%) is now clearly the elector’s preferred Liberal Leader ahead of current Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (21%, down 0.5%), Tony Abbott (17%, up 1%) and Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (9%, down 2.5%).

• For the first time more Liberal Party voters support Joe Hockey (35%, up 9%) ahead of Malcolm Turnbull (21%, down 14%) as preferred Coalition Leader. Turnbull also trails Tony Abbott (22%, up 6%), but is well ahead of Julie Bishop (5%, down 3.5%). No other Liberal rates above 3% support.

• If Prime Minister Rudd were to resign for any reason, Deputy PM Julia Gillard is clearly preferred as ALP Leader (52%, up 0.5%). Wayne Swan (10%, up 0.5%) is the next best preferred leader of the ALP, ahead of Stephen Smith (7%, up 1.5%), Lindsay Tanner (5%, down 3.5%), Jenny Macklin (4%, unchanged) and Bill Shorten (4%, up 1.5%). Gillard’s support among ALP voters (65%) is even stronger.

• If Mr Turnbull were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Hockey (37%, up 3%) is clearly preferred as the Liberal to replace him, ahead of Tony Abbott (20%, down 2.5%) and Julie Bishop (14%, up 0.5%).

• Overall, Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as Australia’s Prime Minister: 69% (down 1% since July 1/2, 2009) of electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than Mr Turnbull (18%, down 2%) while 13% (up 3%) can’t say or chose someone else. The full results of this Special Preferred Prime Minister Morgan Poll are available here.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Morgan Poll survey of the electorate’s preferred leaders clearly shows Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (51%, down 1.5%) as preferred ALP leader ahead of his deputy Julia Gillard (22%, down 1%).

“Looking at all electors, support for Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (30%, up 5%) has continued to increase and Hockey is now clearly ahead of Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (21%, down 0.5%) as preferred Liberal Leader.

“Importantly — amongst Liberal voters in the past three months for the first time support for Turnbull (21%, down 14%) has collapsed and he now trails both Hockey (35%, up 9%) and Tony Abbott (22%, up 6%).”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of October 7/8, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross section of 549 electors.

MORGAN POLL FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION RESULTS

MORGAN POLL — PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First#	Ind./Others
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)	46.5	37 (4.5)	10.5	1	5

MORGAN POLL — TWO PARTY PREFERRED	ALP	L-NP
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)	58	42

This telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the nights of October 7/8, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 549 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5%, down 2.5% since August 5/6, 2009 did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

Preferred Labor Leader

Respondents were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	66	49	60	50	52.5	51	70	37	50	37	35	35
Gillard	15	21	19	20	23	22	19	20	12	43	35	16
Tanner	2	3	3	5.5	4	4	1	7	10	4	13	6
Smith	2	4	3	5.5	3.5	5	2	8	9	0	6	11
Macklin	1	3	2	1	3	2	1	3	2	4	0	6
Swan	2	3	3	3	3	4	3	5	4	4	11	5
Shorten	2	3	1	4	0.5	2	1	3	4	1	0	5
Someone else	1	2	1	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Can’t say	9	12	8	10.5	10	10	3	17	9	7	0	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	66	49	60	50	52.5	51	54	48	51	46	49	54
Gillard	15	21	19	20	23	22	17	27	27	21	28	17
Tanner	2	3	3	5.5	4	4	5	3	4	4	3	5
Smith	2	4	3	5.5	3.5	5	6	3	0	4	2	7
Macklin	1	3	2	1	3	2	2	2	2	1	4	1
Swan	2	3	3	3	3	4	6	1	6	2	3	4
Shorten	2	3	1	4	0.5	2	2	2	0	7	0	2
Someone else	1	1	1	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Can’t say	9	13	8	10.5	10	10	8	14	10	14	11	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Less than 0.5%

Preferred Labor Leader other than Kevin Rudd

Respondents who preferred Kevin Rudd as ALP Leader were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Julia Gillard,Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin, Lindsay Tanner?”

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Kevin Rudd.

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	50	44	50	45	51.5	52	65	34	39	66	57	28
Swan	8	12	13	11	9.5	10	10	12	12	6	11	11
Tanner	6	6	6	8.5	8.5	5	2	9	10	4	13	12
Smith	5	8	6	8	5.5	7	5	11	14	4	6	11
Macklin	5	5	4	2	4	4	3	6	7	4	13	6
Shorten	5	5	2	6.5	2.5	4	5	5	4	1	0	5
Someone else	1	2	1	0.5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Can’t say	20	18	18	18.5	17.5	18	10	23	14	15	0	27
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	50	44	50	45	51.5	52	47	56	56	47	55	50
Swan	8	12	13	11	9.5	10	15	5	17	9	9	10
Tanner	6	6	6	8.5	8.5	5	7	4	4	4	6	5
Smith	5	8	6	8	5.5	7	9	6	2	4	5	11
Macklin	5	5	4	2	4	4	3	5	3	3	6	4
Shorten	5	5	2	6.5	2.5	4	6	3	0	8	3	5
Someone else	1	2	1	0.5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Can’t say	20	18	18	18.5	17.5	18	13	21	18	24	16	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Preferred Coalition Leader

Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Hockey	13	11	12	16	25	30	32	35	41	15	22	22
Turnbull	24	20	28	20.5	21.5	21	18	21	29	30	0	29
Abbott	6	7	6	5.5	16	17	16	22	13	15	17	13
Bishop	7	8	7	6	11.5	9	10	5	4	21	13	13
Robb	1	1	*	1	3.5	4	5	3	0	2	13	5
Pyne	na	na	na	na	3	2	2	1	0	2	19	0
Costello^	18	31	28	35.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson^	9	10	7	4	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	2	1	*	0.5	1.5	1	0	0	1	2	0	0
Can't say	11	11	12	11	18	16	17	12	13	13	16	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both announced that they will not stand for re-election at the next Federal Election.

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Hockey	13	11	12	16	25	30	31	29	14	25	32	34
Turnbull	24	20	28	20.5	21.5	21	23	19	26	20	17	23
Abbott	6	7	6	5.5	16	17	18	15	27	15	17	15
Bishop	7	8	7	6	11.5	9	7	11	10	9	10	9
Robb	1	1	*	1	3.5	4	3	4	7	4	2	3
Pyne	na	na	na	na	3	2	2	1	0	0	1	3
Costello^	18	31	28	35.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson^	9	10	7	4	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	2	1	*	0.5	1.5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0
Can't say	11	11	12	11	18	16	15	21	16	26	20	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both announced that they will not stand for re-election at the next Federal Election.

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Malcolm Turnbull

Respondents who preferred Malcolm Turnbull were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb and Christopher Pyne?”

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Malcolm Turnbull.

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader*		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Turnbull*	26	22	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Hockey	14	12	18	20	34	37	39	42	55	17	22	22
Abbott	7	8	7	8	22.5	20	18	29	18	17	17	19
Bishop	8	10	11	8	13.5	14	14	8	4	31	13	24
Robb	2	2	2	2.5	4.5	5	5	5	5	4	13	5
Pyne	na	na	na	na	3.5	3	3	1	5	6	19	0
Costello^	19	33	37	40.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson*^	na	na	10	6.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	1	1	1	0.5	1.5	1	1	1	0	2	0	0
Can't say	12	12	14	14	20.5	20	20	14	13	23	16	30
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;

*For these two Morgan Polls the question asked excluded then Opposition Leader Dr. Brendan Nelson;

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both announced that they will not stand for re-election at the next Federal Election.

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader*		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Turnbull*	26	22	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Hockey	14	12	18	20	34	37	40	34	16	34	37	43
Abbott	7	8	7	8	22.5	20	22	19	36	18	20	18
Bishop	8	10	11	8	13.5	14	11	16	20	12	14	13
Robb	2	2	2	2.5	4.5	5	4	5	7	5	3	5
Pyne	na	na	na	na	3.5	3	4	3	0	2	2	5
Costello^	19	33	37	40.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson*^	na	na	10	6.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	1	1	1	0.5	1.5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0
Can't say	12	12	14	14	20.5	20	18	23	21	28	23	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*For these two Morgan Polls the question asked excluded then Opposition Leader Dr. Brendan Nelson; na = not applicable

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both announced that they will not stand for re-election at the next Federal Election.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2010 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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