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Now 69% (down 1% since July 1/2, 2009) of Australian electors prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister, a low 18% (down 2% since July 1/2, 2009) prefer Malcolm Turnbull while 13% (up 3%) are undecided or prefer someone else. According to this special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (October 7/8, 2009).

This Morgan Poll also finds 66% (up 3% since July 1/2, 2009) of electors approve of the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister, 24% (down 5%) disapprove and 10% (up 2%) are undecided.

Since July approval of Malcolm Turnbull is up 4% to 29%, but is down significantly in 2009 (now down 13% since December 17/18), while 56% (down 6.5%) of Australians disapprove and 15% (up 2.5%) are undecided about Turnbull’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader.

Analysis by voting intention shows that of ALP voters 93% (down 0.5% since July 1/2, 2009) approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job, only 3% (down 1%) disapprove and 4% (up 1.5%) are undecided.

In comparison, clearly more Liberal voters disapprove (54%, up 8% since July 1/2, 2009) of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling is job than approve (31%, down 11%) while 15% (up 3%) are undecided.

Better Prime Minister — Rudd v Turnbull

	Rudd v Turnbull
	Sep. 10/11, 2008#	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct. 7/8, 2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mr. Rudd	63	55	62.5	69	60.5	70	69
Mr. Turnbull	24	30	24	20	26.5	20	18
Rudd lead	39	25	38.5	49	34	50	51
Other / Can’t say	13	15	13.5	11	13	10	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party on September 16, 2008; this Special Morgan Poll was taken with Rudd v Turnbull before Turnbull became Leader of the Opposition.

Gary Morgan says:

“Kevin Rudd (69%, down 1% since July 1/2, 2009) has stretched his lead over Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (18%, down 2%) as better Prime Minister over the past three months.

“Approval for Kevin Rudd’s handling of the job as Prime Minister (66%, up 3%) remains well ahead of approval for Malcolm Turnbull’s handing of the job as Opposition Leader (29%, up 4%).

“The latest Roy Morgan figures show that since Malcolm Turnbull became Opposition Leader just over a year ago, in mid September 2008, Prime Minister Rudd (69%, up 14%) has more than doubled his lead (now 51%, up 26%) over Turnbull (18%, down 12%) to clearly be seen by most electors being the better Prime Minister.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of October 7/8, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross section of 549 electors.

MORGAN POLL FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION RESULTS

MORGAN POLL — PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First#	Ind./Others
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)	46.5	37 (4.5)	10.5	1	5

MORGAN POLL — TWO PARTY PREFERRED	ALP	L-NP
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)	58	42

This telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the nights of October 7/8, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 549 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5%, down 2.5% since August 5/6, 2009 did not name a party.

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Turnbull.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Turnbull?”

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader						Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct. 7/8, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat.#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	55	62.5	69	60.5	70	69	95	37	35	91	84	56
Turnbull	30	24	20	26.5	20	18	2	42	48	6	6	13
Rudd lead	25	38.5	49	34	50	51	93	(5)	(13)	85	78	43
Other / Neither	15	13.5	11	13	10	13	3	21	17	3	10	31
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct. 7/8, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	55	62.5	69	60.5	70	69	69	70	70	66	77	65
Turnbull	30	24	20	26.5	20	18	20	17	17	20	12	22
Rudd lead	25	38.5	49	34	50	51	49	53	53	46	65	43
Other / Neither	15	13.5	11	13	10	13	11	13	13	14	11	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Hockey

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Hockey.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Hockey?”

	Joe Hockey as Shadow Treasurer			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct. 7/8, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat.#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	64	64	65	86	38	27	85	84	74
Hockey	22	23	19	5	42	51	4	6	17
Rudd lead	42	41	46	81	(4)	(24)	81	78	57
Other / Neither	14	13	16	9	20	22	11	10	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Joe Hockey as Shadow Treasurer			Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct. 7/8, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	64	64	65	64	66	67	63	72	60
Hockey	22	23	19	21	17	16	14	16	23
Rudd lead	42	41	46	43	49	51	49	56	37
Other / Neither	14	13	16	15	17	17	23	12	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval of Leaders — Kevin Rudd v Malcolm Turnbull

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

	Prime Minister Rudd
	Feb. 20/21, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct .15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct. 7/8, 2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	71	56	55	64	68	57.5	63	66
Disapprove	14	33	31	23	21	33.5	29	24
Approve - Disapprove	57	23	24	41	47	24	34	42
Other / Can’t say	15	11	14	13	11	9	8	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Oct. 7/8, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat.#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	66	93	34	32	79	94	51
Disapprove	24	3	53	51	13	6	38
Approve - Disapprove	42	90	(19)	(19)	66	88	13
Other / Can’t say	10	4	13	17	8	0	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Oct. 7/8, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	66	66	66	62	67	71	64
Disapprove	24	25	23	29	16	20	29
Approve - Disapprove	42	41	43	33	51	51	35
Other / Can’t say	10	9	11	9	17	9	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Malcolm Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader
	Feb. 20/21, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct. 7/8, 2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	32	38	43	55	42	43	25	29
Disapprove	42	44	24	24	37.5	39	62.5	56
Approve - Disapprove	(10)	(6)	19	31	4.5	4	(37.5)	(27)
Other / Can’t say	26	18	33	21	20.5	18	12.5	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Oct. 7/8, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat.#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	29	28	31	37	31	42	23
Disapprove	56	60	54	45	59	39	67
Approve - Disapprove	(27)	(32)	(23)	(8)	(28)	3	(44)
Other / Can’t say	15	12	15	18	10	19	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Oct. 7/8, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	29	31	27	26	35	27	29
Disapprove	56	57	55	61	35	63	58
Approve - Disapprove	(27)	(26)	(28)	(35)	0	(36)	(39)
Other / Can’t say	15	12	18	13	30	10	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

 

 

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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