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 By Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research & Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research

Last week, November 3, News Ltd’s poll (Newspoll) claimed that Coalition support had jumped 7% to 48% while ALP support had dropped 7% to 52% in two-party preferred terms.

Even at face value such a drop in support was extremely unlikely.

On Thursday November 5, when the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating showed an increase in Consumer Confidence (up 2.5pts to 128.0), it was clear to those who follow polls and politics that the Newspoll was wrong — a ‘rogue’ poll.  An increase in Consumer Confidence is almost invariably positive for the Government.

On Friday November 6, the Morgan Poll showed two-party preferred support for the ALP virtually unchanged (up 0.5% to 61%) and then today’s Nielsen poll also showed support for the ALP virtually unchanged (down 1% to 56%).

The evidence was clear.  Yet the publication of News Ltd’s poll (Newspoll) in the first place had already had a major impact.  The evidence showing the ‘error’ of Newspoll was literally ignored by media discussion (e.g. the Insiders on ABC TV and the impact of the ‘rogue’ poll was allowed to run unabated).

Pollsters and those who publish the polls have a responsibility to report the facts and the truth.

Newspoll should have conducted another poll as soon as possible when they saw the dramatic change in their results — and if different, released the data to correct the misconceptions caused by their ‘rogue’ poll.

It is extremely worrying that today’s Newspoll on “boat people” clearly did include questions on ‘Political support,’ but the results from the ‘Political support’ question were not published.

A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues — specifically the breakdown by ‘Political support’ — suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong.  The percentage supporting each political party clearly should have been released.

Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda by selectively releasing polling data.

Polls and their publishers are powerful but with that power comes responsibility.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:    Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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