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Opinion on the Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme varies significantly between the two major parties. While 50% (down 5% since August 5/6, 2009) of Australians aged 14+ approve of this legislation and 31% (up 7%) disapprove of this legislation, the research conducted by Roy Morgan Research shows a wide range of views on the complex issue of Carbon Emissions Trading.

When told “There’s proposed legislation before Federal Parliament for a carbon emissions trading scheme to be introduced in Australia.” And asked “Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?” clear majorities of ALP (65%, up 3% since August 5/6, 2009) and Greens (52%, down 8%) supporters approve of the Government’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme; while 46% (up 12%) of L-NP supporters disapprove of the legislation.

The range of views on this complex issue is further evident from the concerns people expressed about the legislation, for instance “There are other ways to save the Planet,” “Carbon is not the problem, we need carbon in the Air,” “Going to hurt the economy and increase unemployment,” “It will affect the Coal Industry,” “Global warming has not been proven,” “It’s already here. It’s too late,” “It’s a political exercise,” “It’s just another Tax. It will get passed on to the Consumer. Here comes inflation,” and “Vested interests involved. Don’t trust politician’s motives over this issue.”

Analysis of concerns about the legislation among supporters of the different political parties shows:

• The most prominent reasons for disapproving of the legislation given by ALP supporters were that “It costs too much” and “Australia should wait for the World to act.”(both 2.5% of ALP voters);
• Greens supporters said “doesn’t go far enough” (8%) and “It doesn’t stop pollution/ carbon emissions” (7.5%).
• Liberal supporters who disapproved said “It costs too much” (12.5%), “Don’t believe in Global Warming” (11%), and “Australia should wait for the world to act” (7%).
• National Party supporters disapproved saying “It costs too much” (12.5%), “Don’t believe in Global Warming” (10%), and “Australia can’t make a difference anyway,” (6%).

Gary Morgan says:

“For the first time more Liberal supporters disapprove (46%, up 12% since August 5/6, 2009) of the proposed carbon emissions trading scheme than approve (37%, down 12%). The legislation for the Rudd Government’s ‘Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme’ (CPRS) is before the Senate again this week and today’s Morgan Poll shows that Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull faces a tough choice which risks going against the views of his own supporters.

“In contrast, a strong majority of ALP supporters remain committed to the CPRS legislation with 65% (up 3%) of ALP supporters approving of the legislation. A majority of Greens supporters also approve of the legislation (52%, down 8%) — although a significant number of Greens supporters believe that “It is already too late” (21%, up 1%) to deal with Global Warming.”

These are the main insights from the special telephone Roy Morgan survey conducted on the evenings of November 11/12, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 674 men and women aged 14 or over.

Respondents were asked the series of questions about Global Warming and the proposed Australian response to address the issue of Climate Change with a ‘carbon emissions trading scheme.’

Latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, conducted over the weekend of November 7/8, 2009 and released last Friday (November 13, 2009), shows the ALP (56%) ahead of the L-NP (44%) on a two-party preferred basis.

Views about Global Warming

Respondents were asked: “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming? Do you think: Concerns are exaggerated; if we don’t act now it will be too late; it is already too late?”

When asked “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming,” a majority, 64% (unchanged since August 5/6, 2009), of ALP supporters say “If we don’t act now it will be too late,” compared to 66% (down 4%) of Greens supporters and just 38% (down 7%) of L-NP supporters.

A larger amount of L-NP supporters (46%, up 5%) say “Concerns are exaggerated” compared to 18 % (down 7%) of ALP supporters and only 11% (up 4%) of Greens supporters while 16% (up 8%) of ALP supporters, 9% (unchanged) of L-NP supporters and a fifth of Greens supporters, 21% (up 1%) say “It is already too late.”

“Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming?

	Total all people aged 14+					Analysis by Voting Preference
	April 2006	Nov 2008	May 2009	Aug 2009	Nov 11/12, 2009	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat#	Green#	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Concerns are exaggerated	13	19	26	27	30	18	46	46	47	11	54	36	32
If we don’t act now  it will be too late	67	64	58	58	52	64	38	38	38	66	30	53	39
It is already too late	15	14	12	11	14	16	10	9	15	21	16	8	16
Can’t say	5	3	4	4	4	2	6	7	0	2	0	3	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Views about Australia’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme

Respondents were then asked: “There’s proposed legislation before Federal Parliament for a carbon emissions trading scheme to be introduced in Australia. Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?”

There is a clear split between left and right on the proposed legislation with a clear majority of ALP supporters (65%, up 3% since August 5/6, 2009) approving of the legislation, and a majority of Greens supporters (52%, down 8%).

In contrast — a reversal since August 5/6, 2009, more Liberal supporters now disapprove of the proposed legislation with 46% (up 12%) disapproving of the legislation compared to 37% (down 12%) who approve of the legislation. Interestingly, more National Party supporters actually approve of the legislation (44%, down 1%) than disapprove, (36%, up 7%).

	Total all people  aged 14+		Analysis by Voting Preference
	Aug 5/6, 2009	Nov 11/12, 2009	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat#	Green#	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Approve	55	50	65	37	37	44	52	46	24	43
Disapprove	24	31	16	45	46	36	35	54	57	19
Don’t Understand	14	11	12	9	8	10	11	0	11	19
Can’t say	7	8	7	9	9	10	2	0	8	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Respondents who disapproved of the legislation were then asked: “Why especially do you say that?”

		Total all people aged 14+
		Aug 5/6, 2009			Nov 11/12, 2009
		(%)			(%)
Costs too much		3			6
Don’t believe in Global Warming		2.5			6
Australia can’t make a difference anyway		1.5			4
Australia should wait for the World to act		3			3.5
Doesn’t stop pollution/ carbon emissions		3			3.5
Doesn’t go far enough		2.5			2
The public doesn’t have enough info		1			1.5
Carbon emissions are not responsible for Global Warming		2			1.5
Global Warming is not a problem/ Isn’t bad for Australia		1.5			1
Not fair		1.5			1
Its another tax/ revenue raising exercise		0.5			1
The legislation is wrong/ not good/ needs a rethink; There are better methods		1			0.5
Unfair distribution of carbon credits; Too much leeway; Special consideration given to certain companies		1			0.5
I’m not convinced by the arguments; Need more proof; More research needs to be done		1			0.5
They’re only doing it for political reasons		0.5			0.5
Its bad for the Australian economy		*			0.5
Job losses; The jobs lost won’t be replaced		1			0.5
The ETS won’t stop/ won’t make a difference on Global Warming		*			0.5
Its too late		*			0.5
We’re rushing into it; Not prepared for it		1			0.5
Its exaggerated/ Scaremongering		1			*
It does not benefit families/ average people		0.5			*
Additional taxes; No economic assistance for farmers		0.5			*
The opportunity for corruption/ union payoffs		0.5			^
I am suspicious of them/ They cover things up		0.5			^
Its bad for the environment/ Global Warming		0.5			^
There are more important issues for Australia		*			^
Other		3			3.5
Can’t say		1.5			2
Total asked question (Disapprove of legislation)			24			31
Total not asked (Approve of legislation / Don’t understand legislation)			76			69
	Total		100			100

* Less than 0.5% of respondents mentioned this statement. ^ No respondents mentioned this statement.

Note: respondents to this question were able to nominate multiple responses.

The research conducted for these questions was both qualitative (in that people were asked to use their own words) and quantitative (in that the ‘open-ended’ responses were analysed and ‘coded’ so that the results could be counted and reported as percentages).

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

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