Labour Party (33%, up 4%) cuts NZ National-led Government support (57%, down 3.5%)
| Finding No. 4437 -
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 876 electors from November 2-15, 2009. Of all electors surveyed, 4% (down 1.5%) did not name a party.:
November 20, 2009 |
In early November support for John Key’s National-led Government fell 3.5% to 57%; comprising National Party 51.5% (down 4%), Maori Party 2% (down 1.5%), ACT NZ 2.5% (up 1.5%) and United Future 1% (up 0.5%) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. (conducted November 2-15, 2009.)
Support for Opposition parties is 43% (up 3.5%); Labour Party 33% (up 4%), Greens 6.5% (down 1%), NZ First 2.5% (up 1%) and Others 1% (unchanged).
If an Election were held today the National Party would still win easily.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 142 (down 4 points) with 64.5% (down 2%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 22.5% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s NZ Morgan Poll shows significant falls in support for National-led Government coalition partners National (51.5%, down 4%) and the Maori Party (2%, down 1.5%), only partially offset by rises in support for ACT NZ (2.5%, up 1.5%) and United Future (1%, up 0.5%). Clearly the biggest rise in support is for the main Opposition Labour Party — up 4% to 33%.
“Disunity in Prime Minister John Key’s Government about the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) legislation is proving a political headache for the Prime Minister. Although coalition partners the Maori Party are prepared to find a negotiated solution, ACT NZ — another party in the coalition — are completely against the ETS legislation and have sided with the two main Opposition Parties, Labour and the Greens, in opposing the ETS legislation.”
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 876 electors from November 2-15, 2009. Of all electors surveyed, 4% (down 1.5%) did not name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
National |
Labour |
Green
Party |
ACT NZ |
Maori
Party* |
United
Future |
NZ First |
Progressive Party |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
20.9 |
41.3 |
7 |
7.1 |
n/a |
6.7 |
10.4 |
1.7 |
4.9 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
39.1 |
41.1 |
5.3 |
1.51 |
2.12 |
2.67 |
5.72 |
1.16 |
1.32 |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
44.93 |
33.99 |
6.72 |
3.65 |
2.39 |
0.87 |
4.07 |
0.91 |
2.47 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
44 |
32.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
47 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
48 |
33 |
8 |
3 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
48 |
31 |
9 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
48.5 |
32 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
56 |
26 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
54.5 |
29 |
8 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
50.5 |
28 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
^ |
1 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
50 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
^ |
0.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
55 |
30.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
52 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
52 |
31 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
52 |
33 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
54 |
31.5 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
52 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
^ |
1 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
53.5 |
34 |
7 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
^ |
^ |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
53.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
^ |
^ |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
56.5 |
29.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
57.5 |
28 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
2 |
^ |
1 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
53 |
30 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
55.5 |
29 |
7.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
51.5 |
33 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
^ |
1 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v All Opposition Parties
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
National Party-led
Government* |
Opposition
Parties# |
| |
% |
% |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
51.84 |
48.16 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
54 |
46 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
55 |
45 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
58 |
42 |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
60 |
40 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Progressive Party, NZ First, Other
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of Helen Clark): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Apr 7-20,
2008 |
April 21-May 4, 2008 |
May 5-18,
2008 |
May 19-June 1, 2008 |
June 2-15, 2008 |
June 16-29, 2008 |
June 30-July 13, 2008 |
July 14-27, 2008 |
July 28-Aug 10, 2008 |
Aug 18-31, 2008 |
Sep 1-14, 2008 |
Sep 15-Oct 5, 2008 |
Oct 6-19,
2008 |
Oct 20-Nov 2,
2008 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50.5 |
44.5 |
38 |
38 |
42.5 |
37 |
36.5 |
38.5 |
44.5 |
50.5 |
44 |
48 |
53 |
51.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
34.5 |
40.5 |
44.5 |
44.5 |
40.5 |
49 |
49.5 |
47 |
41 |
35.5 |
41 |
39.5 |
34.5 |
35 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
116 |
104.5 |
93.5 |
93.5 |
102 |
88 |
87 |
91.5 |
103.5 |
115 |
103 |
108.5 |
118.5 |
116.5 |
|
Can’t say |
15 |
15 |
17.5 |
17.5 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
14 |
15 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
13.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Nov 3-16,
2008 |
Nov 17-30,
2008 |
Dec 1-14,
2008 |
Jan 2-18,
2009 |
Jan 19-Feb 1,
2009 |
Feb 2-15,
2009 |
Feb 16-Mar 1,
2009 |
Mar 2-15,
2009 |
Mar 23-Apr 5,
2009 |
Apr 6-19,
2009 |
Apr 20-May 3,
2009 |
May 4-17,
2009 |
May 18-31,
2009 |
June 1-14,
2009 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54 |
66 |
63 |
67 |
65 |
63.5 |
69 |
67.5 |
65 |
68.5 |
66.5 |
67.5 |
65.5 |
69 |
|
Wrong direction |
31 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
20 |
22 |
17 |
20 |
19.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
123 |
147 |
143 |
148 |
145 |
143 |
150.5 |
147.5 |
143 |
151.5 |
146.5 |
148 |
145.5 |
150.5 |
|
Can’t say |
15 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
13 |
14.5 |
13.5 |
13 |
14.5 |
12.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
June 22-July 5,
2009 |
July 6-19,
2009 |
July 20-Aug 2,
2009 |
Aug 3-16,
2009 |
Aug 17-30,
2009 |
Aug 31-Sep 13,
2009 |
Sep 21-Oct 4,
2009 |
Oct 5-18,
2009 |
Oct 19-Nov 1,
2009 |
Nov 2-15,
2009 |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
63 |
66.5 |
66 |
66.5 |
65.5 |
67.5 |
72 |
67.5 |
66.5 |
64.5 |
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
23 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
21.5 |
22 |
24.5 |
16.5 |
21.5 |
20.5 |
22.5 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
140 |
146 |
147.5 |
145 |
143.5 |
143 |
155.5 |
146 |
146 |
142 |
|
|
|
Can’t say |
14 |
13 |
15.5 |
12 |
12.5 |
8 |
11.5 |
11 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
Finding No. 4437 is taken from Computer Report No. 2297
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4437 is taken from Computer Report No. 2297
|
