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Last weekend, November 14/15, 2009, support for the ALP was virtually unchanged on a two-party preferred basis (ALP - 56.5% cf. L-NP - 43.5%). However, primary support fell for both main parties; ALP 45% (down 1.5%) and L-NP 36.5% (down 2%) since the last face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on November 7/8, 2009.

Looking at the minor parties shows a rise in support for the Greens, up 1% to 9%, Family First, up1% to 3% and Independents/ Others 6.5% (up 1.5%).

If a Federal Election were held now the Rudd Government would easily retain Government according to the latest Morgan Poll conducted on November 14/15 2009.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 136 (down 0.5 points) with 60% (unchanged) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 24% (up 0.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for November 14/15, 2009 is 124.8, down 0.4 points over the period of interviewing for this poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows that despite a fall in ALP primary support in a week (45%, down 1.5%),  and slight falls in both Consumer Confidence (down 0.4pts to 124.8) and Government Confidence, support for the Rudd Government has remained strong on a two-party preferred basis (56.5% cf. 43.5%) over the L-NP Opposition.

“This week’s ‘deal’ to resettle the ‘boat people’ on the Oceanic Viking appears to have taken the immediate pressure off the Rudd Government in terms of dealing with asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat.

“Next week is the last sitting week of Federal Parliament for the year and the big issue is whether an amended ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) legislation will be negotiated between the Government and Opposition and passed by the Senate. The deep disunity amongst the Liberal Party on the issue is favouring the Government and a level-headed resolution of the issue is a stern test of Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership credentials.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of November 14/15 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,014 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 3% (unchanged) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215    Mobile +61 411 129 093

During the polling period:

• • Climate discontent feeds Coalition division
    The Federal Opposition has admitted it will lose most of its leverage to negotiate with the Government over the emissions trading scheme if it does not strike a deal during the next sitting of Federal Parliament — which concludes on November 26.
  • Hopes rise for a deal with the asylum seekers onboard the Oceanic Viking
    Australia and Indonesia are believed to be close to finalising a deal which the Federal Government hopes will convince the 78 Sri Lankan asylum seekers aboard the Oceanic Viking to leave the Customs ship and go ashore for processing in Indonesia.
  • First 20 Tamil asylum seekers agree disembark from the Oceanic Viking
    Indonesian immigration officials have confirmed that 20 Tamil asylum seekers onboard an Australian Customs ship have agreed to disembark for processing in Indonesia.
  • Prime Minister Rudd denies Tamils getting special treatment
    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has denied that the 78 Tamil asylum seekers, who initially refused to leave the Oceanic Viking, will be receiving special treatment from the Government in judging the merits of their asylum applications.
  • New Zealand refuses asylum request
    New Zealand has refused a request by Australia to help resettle some of the 78 Tamil asylum seekers refusing to leave an Australian Customs boat moored off Indonesia.
  • Berlin leads 20th Anniversary celebrations of the fall of the Wall
    World leaders of the past and present have commemorated the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall by walking across a key bridge linking the east and west of the once divided city.
  • Korean navies clash in disputed zone
    South Korea's media is reporting that the North and South Korean navies have clashed in the Yellow Sea. The first time in years the two combatants have come to active blows.
  • American Space Agency NASA finds water on moon
    American Space Agency NASA has announced that it has found a significant amount of frozen water on the moon. A discovery, if confirmed, that would greatly assist any future manned missions to the moon — and eventually perhaps a permanently inhabited moonbase.
  • Tiger Woods visit to Melbourne a huge success for all concerned

  Tiger Woods repaid the investment of $3 million made to secure his participation in the Australian Masters played last week at Kingston Heath in Melbourne with a comprehensive victory as well as injecting millions of dollars into the local economy as tourists flocked to see perhaps the world’s best sportsman strut his stuff in the Sandbelt.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Note: National Party results are in brackets.

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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