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A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (December 2/3, 2009) finds:

• Prime Minister Kevin Rudd retains a substantial lead as preferred ALP Leader over Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Rudd is preferred as ALP Leader by 46% (down 5% since October 7/8, 2009) of electors well ahead of Gillard (25%, up 3%). No other member of the ALP rates above 4%.
  
  
• Amongst ALP voters Kevin Rudd is even more strongly preferred with 66% (down 4%) of ALP voters preferring Rudd as ALP Leader ahead of Julia Gillard (23%, up 4%). Of other contenders, only Wayne Swan (3%, unchanged) has more than 2% support.
  
  
• Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (31%, up 1%) is still clearly the voter’s preferred Liberal Leader ahead of new Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (26%, up 9%), former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (19%, down 2%) and Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (9%, unchanged).
  
  
• For the first time more Liberal Party voters support Tony Abbott (42%, up 20%) ahead of both Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (29%, down 6%) and former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (14%, down 7%) as preferred Coalition Leader. Abbott is also well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (7%, up 2%).
  
  
• If Prime Minister Rudd were to resign for any reason, Deputy PM Julia Gillard is clearly preferred as ALP Leader (49%, down 3%). Wayne Swan (12%, up 2%) is the next best preferred leader of the ALP, ahead of Stephen Smith (6%, down 1%), Lindsay Tanner (6%, up 1%), Bill Shorten (4%, unchanged) and Jenny Macklin (3%, down 1%). Gillard’s support is even stronger among ALP voters (62%).
  
  
• If Mr Abbott were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Hockey (41%, up 4%) is clearly preferred as the Liberal to replace him ahead of former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (24%) and Julie Bishop (14%, unchanged).
  
  
• Overall, Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as Australia’s Prime Minister: 60% (down 9% since October 7/8, 2009 when Malcolm Turnbull was Opposition Leader) of electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than Mr Abbott (25%) while 15% (up 2%) can’t say or chose someone else. The full results of this Special Better Prime Minister Morgan Poll are available here.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Morgan Poll survey of the electorate’s preferred leaders clearly shows Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (46%, down 5%) as preferred ALP Leader ahead of his deputy Julia Gillard (25%, up 3%).

“Looking at all electors new Liberal Party Leader Tony Abbott (26%, up 9%) has increased his support substantially as preferred Liberal Party Leader, but still trails Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (31%, up 1%).

“Importantly for Abbott though — his support is strongest amongst Liberal Party supporters with a huge jump in support for Abbott (42%, up 20%) at the expense of leadership rivals Hockey (29%, down 6%) and former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (14%,, down 7%).”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of December 2/3, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross section of 597 electors.

Preferred Labor Leader

Respondents were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	60	50	52.5	51	46	66	27	22	49	55	46
Gillard	19	20	23	22	25	23	26	38	33	14	41
Swan	3	3	3	4	4	3	7	0	2	0	0
Tanner	3	5.5	4	4	4	1	8	19	6	0	6
Shorten	1	4	0.5	2	3	2	5	0	2	14	0
Smith	3	5.5	3.5	5	3	2	4	5	2	0	0
Macklin	2	1	3	2	1	0	3	0	1	17	0
Someone else	1	0.5	0.5	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0
Can’t say	8	10.5	10	10	13	2	18	16	5	0	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	60	50	52.5	51	46	47	44	46	44	50	43
Gillard	19	20	23	22	25	23	27	23	27	27	24
Swan	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	8	7	1	4
Tanner	3	5.5	4	4	4	7	2	0	6	3	6
Shorten	1	4	0.5	2	3	3	4	5	1	3	3
Smith	3	5.5	3.5	5	3	3	2	0	2	2	4
Macklin	2	1	3	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1
Someone else	1	0.5	0.5	0	1	2	1	0	1	3	1
Can’t say	8	10.5	10	10	13	10	14	16	11	10	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Less than 0.5%

Preferred Labor Leader other than Kevin Rudd

Respondents who preferred Kevin Rudd as ALP Leader were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Julia Gillard,Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin, Lindsay Tanner?”

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Kevin Rudd.

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	50	45	51.5	52	49	62	34	39	61	36	66
Swan	13	11	9.5	10	12	16	13	0	6	18	7
Smith	6	8	5.5	7	6	5	8	10	3	0	0
Tanner	6	8.5	8.5	5	6	1	11	25	7	0	6
Shorten	2	6.5	2.5	4	4	3	16	0	5	14	0
Macklin	4	2	4	4	3	2	3	5	3	17	7
Someone else	1	0.5	1	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
Can’t say	18	18.5	17.5	18	18	10	13	21	15	15	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	50	45	51.5	52	49	46	51	47	45	53	48
Swan	13	11	9.5	10	12	13	11	11	18	12	10
Smith	6	8	5.5	7	6	7	4	1	2	4	9
Tanner	6	8.5	8.5	5	6	9	4	4	7	5	7
Shorten	2	6.5	2.5	4	4	3	6	7	3	5	3
Macklin	4	2	4	4	3	2	3	3	1	4	3
Someone else	1	0.5	1	0	2	2	1	0	1	3	1
Can’t say	18	18.5	17.5	18	18	18	20	27	23	14	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Preferred Coalition Leader

Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Hockey	12	16	25	30	31	36	29	40	34	30	28
Abbott	6	5.5	16	17	26	18	42	29	9	25	19
Turnbull	28	20.5	21.5	21	19	20	14	12	33	44	23
Bishop	7	6	11.5	9	9	11	7	10	6	0	7
Pyne	na	na	3	2	1	1	1	0	1	0	8
Robb	*	1	3.5	4	1	1	1	6	1	0	0
Costello^	28	35.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson^	7	4	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	*	0.5	1.5	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0
Can’t say	12	11	18	16	12	12	5	97	14	1	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both left Parliament.

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Hockey	12	16	25	30	31	30	32	26	32	34	31
Abbott	6	5.5	16	17	26	26	25	24	23	25	27
Turnbull	28	20.5	21.5	21	19	21	18	20	18	19	20
Bishop	7	6	11.5	9	9	8	10	7	11	9	8
Pyne	na	na	3	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	1
Robb	*	1	3.5	4	1	2	0	0	0	2	1
Costello^	28	35.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson^	7	4	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	*	0.5	1.5	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Can’t say	12	11	18	16	12	11	14	21	16	10	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both left Parliament.

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Respondents who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb & Christopher Pyne?”

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Abbott	7	8	22.5	20	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Hockey	18	20	34	37	41	41	47	50	38	56	28
Turnbull*	na	na	na	na	24	24	22	23	35	44	28
Bishop	11	8	13.5	14	14	17	14	16	8	0	12
Robb	2	2.5	4.5	5	3	2	5	6	1	0	0
Pyne	na	na	3.5	3	2	1	2	0	1	0	16
Costello^	37	40.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	Na	na	na
Nelson^	10	6.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	1	0.5	1.5	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0
Can’t say	14	14	20.5	20	15	14	9	5	15	0	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;

*Between September 2008 and December 2009 Malcolm Turnbull was not included in this question as he was the then Opposition Leader.

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both left Parliament.

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Abbott	7	8	22.5	20	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Hockey	18	20	34	37	41	43	39	31	40	43	42
Turnbull*	na	na	na	na	24	26	22	25	24	24	24
Bishop	11	8	13.5	14	14	11	17	20	16	14	13
Robb	2	2.5	4.5	5	3	4	2	0	1	6	3
Pyne	na	na	3.5	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	3
Costello^	37	40.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson^	10	6.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	1	0.5	1.5	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	2
Can’t say	14	14	20.5	20	15	13	17	22	18	11	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Between September 2008 and December 2009 Malcolm Turnbull was not included in this question as he was the then Opposition Leader.

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both left Parliament.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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