Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |

Unemployment to increase / decrease

This special Roy Morgan International Poll conducted in association with the Gallup International Association finds that Australians and New Zealanders are not as worried about rising unemployment as they were over the past year.

Now 52% (down 18% since June 2009) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months while 24% (up 6%) say that unemployment will fall and 22% (up 11%) say unemployment will remain the same over the next 12 months and just 2% (down 1%) don’t know.

A similar number of New Zealanders (54%, down 20% since November 2008) expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months while 28% (up 13% — the highest since December 2004) expect unemployment to fall and 17% (up 8%) expect no change and only 1% (down 1%) don’t know.

Job security

An increased majority of Australians (82%, up 5% since June 2009) of Australians who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 16% (down 5%) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and only 2% (unchanged) don’t know.

In New Zealand, 76% (down 3% since November 2008 — and the lowest for a decade, since November 1999) of workers believe their jobs are safe, while 20% (up 2%) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 4% (up 1%) don’t know.

Finding a new job

In Australia, 54% (down 3% from June 2009 — and the lowest since December 2001) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly while 39% (up 3% — and the highest since December 2001) say it might take longer to find a new job, 3% (down 1%) wouldn’t look and 4% (up 1%) don’t know.

Nearly half of New Zealand workers (49%, up 10% — and the highest since November 1992 during the early 1990s recession) think it might take longer to find a new job compared to 43% (down 12% — and the lowest since November 1992) that say they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 5% (up 3%) wouldn’t look and 3% (down 1%) don’t know.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special Roy Morgan International Poll conducted in association with the Gallup International Association shows that worries about unemployment in Australia and New Zealand have receded over the past 6-12 months as the freshness of the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ diminishes.

“Over the past year there has been a large fall in the numbers of Australians (52%, down 18% from a year ago) and New Zealanders (54%, down 20%) that believe unemployment will increase in the next 12 months.

“Despite this good news workers are still worried about whether they would be able to find a new job quickly though with just 54% (down 9% since November 2008) of Australians and 43% (down 12%) of New Zealanders saying they could ‘find a new job quickly’ if made unemployed.”

These findings come from a special Roy Morgan International Poll conducted in association with the Gallup International Association in Australia and New Zealand on attitudes towards employment in the coming 12 months.  In Australia, a cross-section of 1,330 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 11-22, 2009.  In NZ, a cross-section of 1,010 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 16-29, 2009.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

1. Unemployment

Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in Australia  to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”

Just over half (52%, down 18% since June 2009) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months — the lowest since October 2007 (26%). 24% (up 6% — and the highest since Nov. 2006) expect unemployment to fall, while 22% (up 11%) believe there will be no change, (2%, up 1%) don't know.

In New Zealand, 54% (down 20% since Nov. 2008) expect unemployment to increase, while 17% (up 8%) expect there will be no change and 28% (up 13% — and the highest since Dec. 2004) expect it to fall and 1% (down 1%).

Expect Unemployment to…	Increase	Fall	No change	Don’t know
	%	%	%	%
New Zealand:
Aug ‘91	88	6	6	*
Nov ‘91	76	11	13	*
Nov ‘92	52	25	23	*
Nov ‘93	38	33	29	*
Nov ‘98	68	14	18	*
Nov ‘99	32	31	37	*
Dec ‘00	33	30	37	*
Dec ‘01	36	27	37	*
Dec ‘02	37	31	32	*
Dec ‘03	35	28	37	*
Dec ‘04	29	29	42	*
Nov ‘05	44	19	37	*
Nov ‘06	37	21	38	4
Nov ‘07	31	20	45	4
Nov ‘08	74	15	9	2
Nov '09	54	28	17	1
Australia:
1975	64	21	15	*
1976	60	19	21	*
1977	64	20	16	*
1978	73	10	17	*
1979	69	10	21	*
1980	67	11	22	*
Dec ‘82	88	5	7	*
Oct ‘83	54	23	23	*
Nov ‘84	44	30	26	*
Nov ‘85	49	27	24	*
Nov ‘86	63	13	24	*
Dec ‘87	59	16	25	*
Nov ‘88	48	22	30	*
Nov ‘89	50	18	32	*
Nov ‘90	81	10	9	*
Aug ‘91	65	17	18	*
Nov ‘91	62	22	16	*
Jul ‘92	54	24	22	*
Nov ‘92	55	22	23	*
Nov ‘93	44	27	29	*
Nov ‘94	32	42	26	*
Nov ‘95	49	23	28	*
Jul ‘97	47	25	28	*
Nov ‘97	45	26	29	*
Nov ‘98	53	20	27	*
Nov ‘99	38	29	33	*
Dec ‘00	50	20	30	*
Dec ‘01	60	16	24	*
Dec ‘02	44	19	37	*
Dec ‘03	39	22	39	*
Dec ‘04	36	24	40	*
Nov ‘05	40	21	39	*
Nov ‘06	40	24	32	4
Oct ‘07	26	17	47	10
Nov ‘08	70	20	8	2
Jun '09	70	18	11	1
Nov ‘09	52	24	22	2

* “Don’t know” result included in “No change” Australia 1975-2005, New Zealand 1991-2005

2. Job Security in Australia and New Zealand

Those respondents who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”

Over four-fifths of Australians (82%, up 5% since June 2009 — and the highest since Nov. 2005) who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 16% (down 5% — and the lowest since Nov. 2005) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (unchanged) don’t know.

In New Zealand, 76% (down 3% since Nov. 2008 — and the lowest for a decade, since Nov. 1999) of workers believe their jobs are safe, while 20% (up 2%) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 4% (up 1%) don’t know.

Job Security	Present job safe	Chance of unemployment	Don't know
	%	%	%
New Zealand:
Aug ‘91	54	41	5
Nov ‘91	60	36	4
Nov ‘92	66	29	5
Nov ‘98	73	20	7
Nov ‘99	76	21	3
Dec ‘00	80	17	3
Dec ‘01	84	15	1
Dec ‘02	81	14	5
Dec ‘03	84	14	2
Dec ‘04	85	13	2
Nov ‘05	84	13	3
Nov ‘06	85	13	2
Nov ‘07	83	13	4
Nov ‘08	79	18	3
Nov '09	76	20	4
Australia:
1975	76	21	3
1976	78	17	5
1977	82	15	3
1978	79	19	2
1979	77	20	3
1980	73	23	4
Dec ‘82	72	25	3
Oct ‘83	79	18	3
Nov ‘84	82	17	1
Nov ‘85	79	18	3
Nov ‘86	80	17	3
Dec ‘87	80	18	2
Nov ‘88	81	18	1
Nov ‘89	82	17	1
Nov ‘90	70	28	2
Aug ‘91	70	28	2
Nov ‘91	69	27	4
Jul ‘92	69	29	2
Nov ‘92	65	32	3
Nov ‘93	73	25	2
Nov ‘94	74	22	4
Nov ‘95	74	23	3
Jul ‘97	73	24	3
Nov ‘97	77	21	2
Nov ‘98	81	16	3
Nov ‘99	74	25	1
Dec ‘00	75	20	5
Dec ‘01	75	22	3
Dec ‘02	79	20	1
Dec ‘03	78	20	2
Dec ’04	79	19	2
Nov ‘05	83	15	2
Nov ‘06	81	17	2
Oct ‘07	80	18	2
Nov ‘08	80	18	2
Jun '09	77	21	2
Nov ‘09	82	16	2

3. Finding a New Job If Unemployed

Full-time and part-time workers were then asked: “If you became unemployed, do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly — or do you think it might take longer?”

In Australia, 54% (down 3% since June 2009 — the lowest since Dec. 2001) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly. Thirty-nine per cent (up 3% — the highest since Dec. 2001) say it might take longer to find a new job, 3% (down 1%) wouldn’t look and 4% (up 1%) don’t know.

Just 43% (down 12% — and the lowest since Nov. 1992) of New Zealand workers say they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly if they became unemployed, while 49% (up 10% — and the highest since Nov. 1992) believe it might take longer, 5% (up 3%) wouldn’t look for a new job and 3% (down 1%) don’t know.

Finding a New Job if Unemployed	New job found quickly	May take longer	Wouldn't look	Don't know
	%	%	%	%
New Zealand:
Aug ‘91	30	58	12	*
Nov ‘91	35	54	11	*
Nov ‘92	39	50	11	*
Nov ‘98	50	40	10	*
Nov ‘99	64	29	7	*
Dec ‘00	51	39	10	*
Dec ‘01	58	31	11	*
Dec ‘02	67	26	7	*
Dec ‘03	66	28	6	*
Dec ‘04	69	24	7	*
Nov ‘05	71	23	6	*
Nov ‘06	70	25	5	*
Nov ‘07	72	21	4	3
Nov ‘08	55	39	2	4
Nov '09	43	49	5	3
Australia:
1975	57	33	10	*
1976	57	33	10	*
1977	55	35	10	*
1978	50	41	9	*
1979	54	36	10	*
1980	50	39	11	*
Dec ‘82	44	46	10	*
Oct ‘83	51	41	8	*
Nov ‘84	61	33	6	*
Nov ‘85	58	34	8	*
Nov ‘86	61	30	9	*
Dec ‘87	65	30	5	*
Nov ‘88	69	26	5	*
Nov ‘89	68	26	6	*
Nov ‘90	49	45	6	*
Aug ‘91	39	53	8	*
Nov ‘91	39	53	8	*
Jul ‘92	38	53	9	*
Nov ‘92	39	54	7	*
Nov ‘93	50	43	7	*
Nov ‘94	60	33	7	*
Nov ‘95	58	32	10	*
Jul ‘97	52	42	6	*
Nov ‘97	58	36	6	*
Nov ‘98	55	38	7	*
Nov ‘99	63	30	7	*
Dec ‘00	59	33	8	*
Dec ‘01	54	39	7	*
Dec ‘02	66	29	5	*
Dec ‘03	64	33	3	*
Dec ‘04	67	28	5	*
Nov ‘05	62	34	4	*
Nov ‘06	63	32	5	*
Oct ‘07	72	21	4	3
Nov ‘08	63	34	2	1
Jun '09	57	36	4	3
Nov ‘09	54	39	3	4

* “Don’t know” result included in “Wouldn't look” Australia 1975-2006, New Zealand 1991-2006

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement