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An increasing number of Australians (66%, up 18% — and the highest since 2004) and New Zealanders (73%, up 29%) expect 2010 will be ‘better’ than 2009 according to this special Roy Morgan Survey conducted in association with the Gallup International Association.

It seems the worries about the economy were a 2009 problem as now only 16% (down 19% — and the lowest since 2004) of Australians and 15% (down 25%) of New Zealanders expect 2010 will be ‘worse’ than 2009. A small number of Australians (11%, unchanged) and New Zealanders (10%, up 1%) expect 2010 will be about the same as 2009 while 7% (up 1%) of Australians and 2% (down 5%) of New Zealanders couldn’t say.

Australians & New Zealanders less worried about economic conditions in 2010, most expect 2010 to be the same as 2009

There has been a large fall in the number of Australians worried about economic conditions in 2010 with just 17% (down a large 36%) of Australians and 14% (down an even larger 41%) of New Zealanders saying 2010 will be ‘a year of economic difficulty.’

Majorities of Australians (53%, up 19%) and New Zealanders (63%, up 32%), expect economic conditions in 2010 to be the same as in 2009. In addition, 27% (up 16%) of Australians and 21% (up 10%) of New Zealanders expect 2010 to be ‘a year of economic prosperity and just 3% (up 1%) of Australians and 2% (down 1%) of New Zealanders don’t know.

Most Australians (56%) and New Zealanders (50%) expect strikes and industrial disputes in 2010 to be the same as 2009

A majority of Australians (56%, up 9% — and the highest since 2004) and plurality of New Zealanders (50%, down 6%) expect strikes and industrial disputes to be the same in 2010 as in 2009 while a falling number of Australians (31%, down 10%), but an increasing number of New Zealanders (37%, up 7%), expect the number of strikes and industrial disputer in 2010 to increase from 2009.

In contrast only 8% (unchanged) of Australians and 8% (down 1%) of New Zealanders expect strikes and industrial disputes to decrease from 2009, while 5% (up 1%) of Australians and 5% (unchanged) of New Zealanders don’t know.

Most expect 2010 will remain the same internationally as 2009, but more Australians & New Zealanders expect 2010 will be a ‘troubled year with much international discord’ than ‘a peaceful year more or less free of international dispute’

Clear majorities of Australians (56%, unchanged) and New Zealanders (64%, up 9%) expect 2010 will remain the same internationally as 2009.

More than a third of Australians (35%, up 3%) and a quarter of New Zealanders (25%, down 5% — and the lowest ever recorded) expect 2010 to be ‘a troubled year with much international discord,’ while only 7% (down 3%) of Australians and 7% (down 5%) of New Zealanders expect 2010 to be ‘a peaceful year more or less free of international dispute.’

Just 2% (unchanged) of Australians and 4% (up 1%) of New Zealanders couldn’t say.

The above findings were obtained in conjunction with the annual Roy Morgan Survey of Employment Expectations in Australia and New Zealand.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special Roy Morgan Survey shows a clear majority of Australians (66%, up 18% from a year ago) and New Zealanders (73%, up 29%) expect 2010 will be a ‘better’ year than 2009.

“The results from this latest Roy Morgan Survey conducted in association with the Gallup International Association suggest that both Australians and New Zealanders are convinced that the worst of the recent ‘Global Financial Crisis’ is now behind us.

“Although the majority of Australians (53%, up 19%) and New Zealanders (63%, up 32%) expect economic conditions in 2010 to be the same as in 2009, rising numbers of Australians (27%, up 16%) and New Zealanders (21%, up 10%) expect 2010 to be ‘a year of economic prosperity’ — in contrast, there has been a large fall in the number of Australians (17%, down 36%) and New Zealanders (14% (down 41%) that say 2010 will be ‘a year of economic difficulty.’

“In terms of strikes and industrial disputes, Australians (56%, up 9%) and New Zealanders (50%, down 6%) expect more of the same in 2010 as in 2009, but a lot more are worried about increasing strikes and industrial disputes than decreasing in both Australia (31% cf. 8%) and New Zealand (37% cf. 8%).

“In the New Year, Gallup International will be releasing comparable results from more than 50 countries.”

In Australia, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,330 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone on November 11-22, 2009.

In New Zealand, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,010 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone between November 16-29, 2009.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213    Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215    Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

1. Next Year - Internationally a Peaceful or Troubled Year?

Respondents were then asked: “Do you think that 2010 will be a peaceful year more or less free of international dispute, a troubled year with much international discord, or remain the same?”

A majority of Australians (56%) and New Zealanders (64%) expect 2010 to be the same in terms of international dispute. Far more Australians (35% cf. 7%) and New Zealanders (25% cf. 7%) expect 2010 to be a troubled year with much international discord rather than a peaceful year more or less free of international dispute.

	Expect a Troubled Year																					2010 Internationally will be:
																						Troubled	Same	Peaceful	Don’t Know
	‘89	‘90	‘91	‘92	‘93	‘94	‘95	‘96	‘97	‘98	‘99	‘00	‘01	‘02	‘03	‘04	‘05	‘06	‘07	‘08	'09	2010	2010	2010	2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia Troubled Same^ Don’t Know Peaceful	59 23 ^ 18	28 51 ^ 21	61 33 ^ 6	33 53 ^ 14	41 49 ^ 10	29 58 ^ 13	29 59 ^ 12	28 60 ^ 12	* * * *	35 58 ^ 7	43 47 ^ 10	40 50 ^ 10	39 53 ^ 8	53 37 ^ 10	76 22 ^ 2	45 49 ^ 6	41 53 ^ 6	50 46 ^ 4	44 45 4 7	35 56 4 5	32 56 2 10	35	56	7	2
New Zealand	*	*	*	33	40	26	28	*	*	*	49	35	27	54	68	47	47	42	40#	39#	30#	25	64	7	4

*Not surveyed

^ Between 1989 — 2006, Same & Don’t Know were compiled together.

# New Zealand expectations for 2007 were: Troubled — 40%; Same — 49%; Peaceful — 7%; Don’t Know — 4%; for 2008 were: Troubled — 39%; Same — 49%; Peaceful — 8%; Don’t Know — 4%;

For 2009 were: Troubled — 30%; Same — 55%; Peaceful — 12%; Don’t Know — 3%.

2. Next Year - Strikes and Industrial Disputes to Increase or Decrease

Respondents were finally asked: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that in 2010, strikes and industrial disputes in this country will increase, decrease, or remain the same?”

A greater number of Australians (56%, up 9%) than New Zealanders (50%, down 6%) expect strikes and industrial disputes will remain the same in 2010 than increase or decrease. While 37% (up 7%) of New Zealanders and 31% (down 10%) of Australians expect strikes and industrial disputes to increase in 2010 only 8% (unchanged) of Australians and 8% (down 1%) of New Zealanders expect strikes and industrial disputes to decrease.

	Expect an increase in Strikes and Industrial Disputes																					Increase	Same	Decrease	Don’t Know
	‘89	‘90	‘91	‘92	‘93	‘94	‘95	‘96	‘97	‘98	‘99	‘00	‘01	‘02	‘03	‘04	‘05	‘06	‘07	‘08	'09	2010	2010	2010	2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%		%	%	%	%
Australia Increase Same^ Don’t Know Decrease	33 55 ^ 12	36 47 ^ 17	44 45 ^ 11	32 49 ^ 19	57 32 ^ 11	27 60 ^ 13	43 48 ^ 9	43 48 ^ 9	* * * *	43 51 ^ 6	33 53 ^ 14	43 49 ^ 8	35 56 ^ 9	46 48 ^ 6	40 56 ^ 4	31 64 ^ 5	41 54 ^ 5	62 31 ^ 7	56 30 5 9	27 52 5 16	41 47 4 8	31	56	8	5
New Zealand	*	*	*	47	43	27	31	*	*	*	31	25	38	51	43	28	24	36	43#	38#	30#	37	50	8	5

*Not surveyed

^ Between 1989 — 2006, Same & Don’t Know were compiled together.

# New Zealand expectations for 2007 were: Increase — 43%; Same — 47%; Decrease — 5%; Don’t Know — 5%; for 2008 were: Increase — 38%; Same — 49%; Decrease — 7%; Don’t Know — 6%;

For 2009 were: Increase — 30%; Same — 56%; Decrease — 9%; Don’t Know — 5%.

3. Next Year — Better or Worse?

Respondents were asked:  “As far as you're concerned, do you think next year will be better or worse than this year?”

A clear majority (66%, up 18%) of Australians believe 2010 will be a better year than 2009, while just 16% (down 19%) think it will be worse and 11% (unchanged) think it will be the same.

New Zealanders are even more optimistic about 2010 with 73% (up a large 29%) expecting a better year and only 15% (down 25%) expecting worse. Even fewer, 10% (up 1%) think it will be the same.

	Expect a Better Year in…																					Better	Same	Worse	Don’t Know
	‘89	‘90	‘91	‘92	‘93	‘94	‘95	‘96	‘97	‘98	‘99	‘00	‘01	‘02	‘03	'04	‘05	‘06	‘07	‘08	'09	2010	2010	2010	2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia Better Same^ Don’t Know Worse	47 22 ^ 31	43 22 ^ 35	33 18 ^ 49	54 20 ^ 26	42 22 ^ 36	60 22 ^ 18	65 19 ^ 16	53 29 ^ 18	* * * *	50 28 ^ 22	55 25 ^ 20	49 30 ^ 21	46 33 ^ 21	53 21 ^ 26	51 16 ^ 33	68 17 ^ 15	61 22 ^ 17	49 22 ^ 29	47 14 11 28	53 10 14 23	48 11 6 35	66	11	16	7
New Zealand	*	56	41	33	58	59	61	*	*	*	62	56	62	65	63	59	60	59	65#	57#	44#	73	10	15	2

*Not surveyed

^ Between 1989 — 2006, Same & Don’t Know were compiled together.

# New Zealand expectations for 2007 were: Better — 65%; Same — 16%; Worse — 13%; Don’t Know — 6%; for 2008 were: Better — 57%; Same — 16%; Worse — 19%; Don’t Know — 8%;

For 2009 were: Better — 44%; Same — 9%; Worse — 40%; Don’t Know — 7%.

4. Economic Prosperity or Economic Difficulty Next Year?

Respondents were then asked: “Compared with this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty, or about the same?”

More than half of Australians (53%, up 19%) and even more New Zealanders (63%, up 32%) expect 2010 to be about the same in economic terms as 2009 compared to 27% (up 16%) of Australians and 21% (up 10%) of New Zealanders that expect 2010 to be a year of economic prosperity and only 17% (down a massive 36%) of Australians and just 14% (down a huge 41%) of New Zealanders that expect 2010 to be a year of economic difficulty.

	Economic Expectations for Prosperity or Difficulty
	2005		2006		2007*		2008*		2009*		2010
	Prosperity	Difficulty	Prosperity	Difficulty	Prosperity	Difficulty	Prosperity	Difficulty	Prosperity	Difficulty	Prosperity	Same	Difficulty	Don’t Know
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australia	23	18	16	29	11	31	16	30	11	53	27	53	17	3
New Zealand	17	12	12	26	16	13	18	24	11	55	21	63	14	2

*Full 2007, 2008 & 2009 Expectation figures for Economic Prosperity or Difficulty are

Australia — 2007: Prosperity — 11%; Difficulty — 31%; Same — 53%; Don’t Know — 5%; 2008: Prosperity — 16%; Difficulty — 30%; Same — 45%; Don’t Know — 9%;

2009: Prosperity — 11%; Difficulty — 53%; Same — 34%; Don’t Know — 2%.

New Zealand — 2007: Prosperity — 16%; Difficulty — 13%; Same — 68%; Don’t Know — 3%; 2008: Prosperity — 18%; Difficulty — 24%; Same — 53%; Don’t Know — 5%;

2009: Prosperity — 11%; Difficulty — 55%; Same — 31%; Don’t Know — 3%.

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