ALP lead up slightly – ALP 59% (up 0.5%) to Liberal Party 41% (down 0.5%)
| Finding No. 4452 -
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,867 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.:
December 18, 2009 |
The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend, December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009, shows the ALP (59%, up 0.5% since the last face-to-face poll conducted on November 28/29, 2009) maintaining a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (41%, down 0.5%).
The ALP primary vote 49% (up 2%) remains well ahead of the L-NP (35.5%, up 0.5%), while looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens (8%, down 1.5%), Family First (1.5%, down 1.5%) and Independents/ Others (6%, up 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 136.5 (up 3pts) with 59.5% (up 2%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 23% (down 1%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for December 12/13, 2009 is 122.4, down 0.8 points over the period of interviewing for this poll.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s first face-to-face Morgan Poll taken since Tony Abbott became the new Opposition Leader shows little change to the two-party preferred vote with the ALP (59%, up 0.5% from November 28/29, 2009) maintaining a strong lead over the Opposition (41%, down 0.5%).
“Although early indications from the Morgan telephone poll last week suggested Mr. Abbott would make a difference to the L-NP’s support, today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows Australians’ voting intentions have not been strongly influenced in either way by the election of Abbott to the Liberal Leadership.
“The next month, when most Australians will be enjoying their holidays and not paying close attention to the nation’s politics, gives the Opposition some time to unite behind their new leader and develop a policy platform to take to next year’s Federal Election.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,867 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
During the polling period:
- Prime Minister Rudd dismisses Opposition Leader’s climate debate challenge
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has dismissed a challenge by new Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott for a series of public debates over climate change, saying the Federal Opposition needs to have a policy first.
- Conservative Liberals dominate Abbott’s reshuffle
Conservative Liberals who backed Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's anti-Emissions Trading Scheme (Anti-ETS) position have been rewarded in a frontbench reshuffle unveiled today.
- Prime Minister Rudd launches Australian-made hybrid car
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has launched the first Australian-built hybrid car at Toyota's plant at Altona, west of Melbourne.
- Activist warns of Copenhagen violence
A young Australian climate change activist says she is expecting things to turn violent in Copenhagen, with thousands of protesters vowing to take over the United Nations meeting next week.
- Divisions run deep in Copenhagen
The Copenhagen climate talks have opened with a declaration that the 12 days of negotiations represent an historic opportunity for the world, but deep divisions between delegates have already emerged.
- Federal Police angry with Afghan deployment plans
The Australian Federal Police Association is angry about a plan to send more of its members to Afghanistan rather than deploy additional Defence personnel.
- No news on Osama bin Laden for years, US admits
The United States does not know where Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is hiding and has not had any good intelligence on his whereabouts in years, Defence Secretary Robert Gates said.
- Scores killed in Baghdad bombings
A series of car bombings have killed at least 127 people and wounded 182 in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.
- Woods admits affairs, takes 'indefinite break' from golf
Golf superstar Tiger Woods says he is taking an "indefinite break" from the sport as he admitted for the first time to being unfaithful to his wife and asked for forgiveness.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First#* |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
0 |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
0 |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
0 |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32 (2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008(Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5 (3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53 |
34 (3) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
31.5 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
45.5 |
38.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48 |
34.5 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37.5 (4) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50 |
37 (3) |
6.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
| |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
| |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
36.5 (3.5) |
10 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
36 (2) |
9.5 |
3 |
5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46 |
36 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
48 |
38 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
37.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
35.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
34.5 (2.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
35.5 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (4) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
36 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38 (4) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
39 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 (3) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
34 (2) |
9 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
37.5 (1.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
45 |
40.5 (4) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
43.5 |
39.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38 (3) |
7 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 (3.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
46 |
39 (2.5) |
8 |
1 |
6 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
35 (3) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
37.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
45.5 |
37.5 (3) |
11 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
34.5 (3) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
32.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
35.5 (2.5) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
46.5 |
37 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34.5 (3) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
32.5 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
42.5 |
41.5 (4) |
8 |
1 |
7 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
45 |
36.5 (4) |
9 |
3 |
6.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
35.5 (2) |
9 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47 |
35 (3.5) |
9.5 |
3 |
5.5 |
| |
|
Tony Abbott replace Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
| |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
41 |
43 (3.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
42 |
41.5 (2) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
35.5 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59 |
41 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
34.5 |
65 |
35 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
64 |
36 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
64 |
36 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63 |
37 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
45.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
60 |
40 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59 |
41 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
62 |
38 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60 |
40 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
56 |
44 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of the Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59 |
41 |
** Phone Poll
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
|
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
75 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
68 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
20.5 |
16 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
21 |
13.5 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
21 |
14.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
23.5 |
15 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
24 |
15 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
24.5 |
16 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
23 |
15 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
23.5 |
16 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
26.5 |
16 |
|
|
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
|
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
29.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
29 |
17 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
52 |
29 |
19 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58.5 |
22.5 |
19 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
29 |
13.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
25.5 |
16 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
26 |
14.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
22.5 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23 |
12 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
26.5 |
15 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63 |
24 |
13 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
19.5 |
14.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
64 |
24 |
12 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
20.5 |
14.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
68.5 |
18.5 |
13 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
22 |
12.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
24 |
10.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
25.5 |
12.5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
22.5 |
11 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
18 |
13 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
24 |
12.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26.5 |
12.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
15.5 |
13 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
18 |
12.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
16 |
13 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
76.5 |
12.5 |
11 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
74.5 |
16 |
9.5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
73 |
18 |
9 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
17.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18.5 |
11 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
72.5 |
15 |
12.5 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19 |
12 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
72 |
19 |
9 |
|
|
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
|
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
78 |
13 |
9 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
20.5 |
13 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull) |
| |
Feb
7/8 |
Feb
14/15 |
Feb 21/22
& 28/ Mar 1 |
Mar
7/8 |
Mar
14/15 |
Mar 21/22
& 28/29 |
Apr 4/5
& 11/12 |
Apr 18/19
& 25/26 |
May 2/3
& 9/10 |
May
16/17 |
May
20/21 |
May 23/24
& 30/31 |
June
3/4 |
June
10/11 |
June 6/7
& 13/14 |
June
20/21 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54.5 |
54 |
53.5 |
50.5 |
50.5 |
53.5 |
56.5 |
53 |
51.5 |
49 |
52 |
54.5 |
55 |
58.5 |
57 |
58.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
26 |
28.5 |
31 |
29.5 |
28.5 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
30.5 |
27.5 |
28.5 |
29.5 |
27.5 |
26 |
24 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
126 |
128 |
125 |
119.5 |
121 |
125 |
130.5 |
125 |
121.5 |
118.5 |
124.5 |
126 |
125.5 |
131 |
131 |
134.5 |
|
Can’t say |
17 |
20 |
18 |
18.5 |
20 |
18 |
17.5 |
19 |
18.5 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
17 |
15.5 |
14 |
17 |
17.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull) |
| |
July
1/2 |
June 27/28
& July 4/5 |
July 11/12
& 18/19 |
July 25/26
& Aug 1/2 |
Aug
5/6 |
Aug 8/9
& 15/16 |
Aug 22/23
& 29/30 |
Sep 5/6
& 12/13 |
Sep 19/20
& 26/27 |
Oct
7/8 |
Oct 3/4
& 10/11 |
Oct 17/18
& 24/25 |
Oct 31
& Nov 1 |
Nov
7/8 |
Nov
11/12 |
Nov
14/15 |
Nov
21/22 |
Nov
28/29 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
60 |
56.5 |
61 |
62.5 |
59 |
63 |
63 |
65 |
63.5 |
70 |
67 |
63 |
60 |
60 |
60.5 |
60 |
59.5 |
57.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
27.5 |
28 |
22.5 |
21 |
26 |
21.5 |
22.5 |
20.5 |
20 |
17.5 |
17 |
21.5 |
18.5 |
23.5 |
27 |
24 |
26 |
24 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
132.5 |
128.5 |
138.5 |
141.5 |
133 |
141.5 |
140.5 |
144.5 |
143.5 |
152.5 |
150 |
141.5 |
141.5 |
136.5 |
133.5 |
136 |
133.5 |
133.5 |
|
Can’t say |
12.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
16.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
15.5 |
21.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
14.5 |
18.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Dec
2/3 |
Dec
4-9 |
Dec 5/6
& 12/13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
54 |
52.5 |
59.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
29.5 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
121 |
123 |
136.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
13 |
18 |
17.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
