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New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 3.6pts to 103.7


Article No. 838 - This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from January 2 – 18, 2009, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 2,156 people aged 14 and over.: January 23, 2009

The January NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is up 3.6 points to 103.7. The NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is now 17.5 points below the 121.2 it was in January 2008.

The rise in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating has been driven by increasing numbers of New Zealanders saying now is a “good time to buy” major household items.

In the New Year 48% (up 6%) of New Zealanders say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 39% (down 5%) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.

Now 38% (down 4%) of New Zealanders say that their family is financially ‘worse off’ than a year ago compared to just 31% (up 3%) who say that they’re family is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago.

New Zealanders are positive about their family’s financial position when looking forward though with 50% (unchanged) of New Zealanders expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time compared to just 22% (down 1%) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially in a year’s time.

In terms of the country as a whole, New Zealanders are expecting tough times through most of 2009 with 56% (unchanged) of New Zealanders expecting ‘bad times’ economically for the country as a whole over the next twelve months while only 24% (unchanged) expect ‘good times.’

Looking further ahead New Zealanders are more confident, despite a fall this week in the number of New Zealanders 46% (down 2%) expecting ‘good times’ for the country during the next five years which compares to just 25% (down 2%) who expect ‘bad times.’

Gary Morgan says:

“The New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is up in the New Year as an increasing number of New Zealanders (48% - the highest figure measured since March 2008) say now is a ’good time to buy’ major household items.

“Rising confidence amongst New Zealand consumers is essential for New Zealand to emerge from the year-long recession — consumer spending supports the New Zealand economy and needs to be increased.

“Despite recent interest rate reductions, interest rates in New Zealand are still amongst the highest in the developed world. The Reserve Bank of NZ meets on Thursday and must again slash 1.5% off New Zealand’s high interest rates to support the local economy and get New Zealand out of this recession.”

 

This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from January 2 — 18, 2009, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 2,156 people aged 14 and over.

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.  The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

 

                       Percentage Estimate

Sample Size

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4


Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yearly

Average

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct*

Nov

Dec

2004

135.7

131.7

130.2

133.5

129.8

130

134.4

132.9

133.9

135.4

135

136.1

133.2

 

                         

 

   

 

           

Beg Oct

Mid Oct

Beg Nov

Mid Nov

Beg Dec

Mid Dec

 

2005

140.9

139.1

136

125.2

125.5

128

127.7

125.6

126.2

121.4

121.3

121.4

119.8

121.1

117.5

126.4

 

Beg Jan

Mid Jan

Beg Feb

Mid Feb

Beg Mar

Mid Mar

Beg Apr

Mid Apr

Beg May

Mid May

Beg Jun

Mid Jun

Beg

Jul

Mid

Jul

Beg Aug

Mid Aug

Beg Sep

Mid

Sep

Beg Oct

Mid Oct

Beg Nov

Mid Nov

Beg Dec

Mid Dec

 

2006

118.3

123

111

115

115.1

116.5

115.7

116.7

104.8

112.5

110.8

114

115.4

118.8

112.1

113.3

115.5

123.8

123.4

124.8

124.0

123.3

128.2

127.8

117.7

2007

^

136.8

133.8

133.7

128.8

129.7

130.5

126.6

121.6

122.5

123.2

118.7

121.4

120.7

120.5

124.3

122.7

119.8

116.0

128.0

122.7

121.0

126.9

126.3

125.1

2008

^

121.2

117.8

114.2

116.8

106.6

99.7

100.0

92.7

85.6

85.4

87.5

82

85.7

87.8

94.9

107.3

109.9

102.3

97.0

98.3 99.7

105.6

100.1

99.9

2009

^

103.7                                             103.7

Monthly Average

125.7

124.5

122.5

118.5

111.9

112.2

113.3

113.9

121.3

118.8

118.4

121.1

118.7

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005

^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating

 


Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2009) are as follows:

  2009
  Jan

Feb

Mar

 Apr May
June July August Sep
Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid

Interviews

^ 2,156                
               

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

Better off

^

31                                
 

Worse off

^

38                                

Question 1 difference

^

-7                                

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

Better off

^

50                                
 

Worse off

^

22                                

Question 2 difference

^

28                                

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

Good Times

^

24                                
 

Bad Times

^

56                                

Question 3 difference

^

-32                                

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?

 

Good times

^

46                                
 

Bad times

^

25                                

Question 4 difference

^

21                                

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?

 

Good time to buy

^

48                                
 

Bad time to buy

^

39                                

Question 5 difference

^

9                                

Roy Morgan

Consumer Confidence Rating

^

103.7                                

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2009 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.


 

2009

 

Oct

Nov

Dec

 

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Interviews

           

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

Better off

           
 

Worse off

           

Question 1 difference

           

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

Better off

           
 

Worse off

           

Question 2 difference

           

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

Good Times

           
 

Bad Times

           

Question 3 difference

           

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?

 

Good times

           
 

Bad times

           

Question 4 difference

           

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?

 

Good time to buy

           
 

Bad time to buy

           

Question 5 difference

           

Roy Morgan

Consumer Confidence Rating

           

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

 

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:

  2008
  Jan

Feb

Mar

 Apr May
June July August Sep
Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid Beg Mid

Interviews

^

1,930

1,033 1,016 983

 1,002

992 1,047 1,101 1,081
987 900 1,119 1,074 1,036 1,034 1,031 1,020

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

Better off

^

44 46 38 40 36 32 35 28 28 22 25 22 23 24 28 27 31
 

Worse off

^

29 28 34 35 35 41 42 49 51 54 50 58 56 56 51 47 46

Question 1 difference

^

15 18 4 5 1 -9 -7 -21 -23 -32 -25 -36 -33 -32 -23 -20 -15

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

Better off

^

57 58 56 57 47 42 46 44 39 38 39 40 41 44 50 53 54
 

Worse off

^

19 17 16 17 22 26 25 28 32 32 29 33 33 28 25 19 20

Question 2 difference

^

38 41 40 40 25 16 21 16 7 6 10 7 8 16 25 34 34

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

Good Times

^

37 36 32 37 30 24 28 24 18 19 16 16 19 19 25 35 33
 

Bad Times

^

32 38 40 36 47 52 52 58 61 60 62 64 64 60 55 43 40

Question 3 difference

^

5 -2 -8 1 -17 -28 -24 -34 -43 -41 -46 -48 -45 -41 -30 -8 -7

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?

 

Good times

^

40 43 40 43 41 39 40 39 35 38 38 37 38 36 42 49 51
 

Bad times

^

22 25 26 24 30 29 29 30 33 31 32 36 37 37 31 23 27

Question 4 difference

^

18 18 14 19 11 10 11 9 2 7 6 1 1 -1 11 26 24

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?

 

Good time to buy

^

57 46 51 49 46 45 39 38 34 34 37 35 41 42 39 45 46
 

Bad time to buy

^

28 32 31 32 34 36 40 44 48 48 45 49 43 46 47 40 39

Question 5 difference

^

29 14 20 17 12 9 -1 -6 -14 -14 -8 -14 -2 -4 -8 5 7

Roy Morgan

Consumer Confidence Rating

^

121.2

117.8 114.2 116.8 106.6 99.7 100.0 92.7 85.6 85.4 87.5 82 85.7 87.8 94.9 107.3 109.9

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.


 

2008

 

Oct

Nov

Dec

 

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Interviews

1,106 946 1,094 1,047 1,058 1,145

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

Better off

30 31 30 32 39 28
 

Worse off

47 44 44 43 33 42

Question 1 difference

-17 -13 -14 -11 6 -14

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

Better off

55 52 52 52 50 50
 

Worse off

18 22 19 20 22 23

Question 2 difference

37 30 33 32 28 27

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

Good Times

30 23 24 26 26 24
 

Bad Times

51 61 55 54 56 56

Question 3 difference

-21 -38 -31 -28 -30 -32

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?

 

Good times

49 47 48 46 51 48
 

Bad times

27 29 27 25 26 27

Question 4 difference

22 18 21 21 25 21

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?

 

Good time to buy

39 37 35 37 45 42
 

Bad time to buy

49 49 52 51 45 44

Question 5 difference

-10 -12 -17 14 0 -2

Roy Morgan

Consumer Confidence Rating

102.3 97.0 98.3 99.7 105.6 100.1

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.


Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:

  2007

 

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Interviews

^

1,956

967

990

1,080

1,092

938

1,084

1,072

1,195

1,040

1,001

1,054

1,077

1,003

1,036

980

1,023

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

Better off

^

41

40

44

40

43

41

42

41

41

41

37

39

37

40

42

41

40

 

Worse off

^

21

23

22

26

23

25

24

26

27

25

30

23

29

23

25

26

27

Question 1 difference

^

20

17

22

14

20

16

18

15

14

16

7

16

8

17

17

15

13

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

Better off

^

58

56

56

55

59

57

52

52

52

50

50

48

50

51

52

53

51

 

Worse off

^

12

16

13

15

13

15

15

18

16

17

19

18

16

17

15

14

18

Question 2 difference

^

46

40

43

40

46

42

37

34

36

33

31

30

34

34

37

39

33

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

Good Times

^

52

51

50

48

45

47

45

38

40

43

40

41

37

33

37

39

39

 

Bad Times

^

18

20

23

28

26

26

28

35

30

30

37

30

34

37

37

32

30

Question 3 difference

^

34

31

27

20

19

21

17

3

10

13

3

11

3

-4

0

7

9

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?

 

Good times

^

52

53

51

49

50

54

47

44

45

46

45

46

44

40

47

44

47

 

Bad times

^

17

17

23

23

22

20

24

28

28

26

25

24

24

23

22

20

21

Question 4 difference

^

35

36

28

26

28

34

23

16

17

20

20

22

20

17

25

24

26

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?

 

Good time to buy

^

66

64

64

63

57

61

58

61

59

57

58

55

60

61

64

56

50

 

Bad time to buy

^

17

19

16

19

22

21

20

21

23

23

26

26

22

22

22

28

32

Question 5 difference

^

49

45

48

44

35

40

38

40

36

34

32

29

38

39

42

28

18

Roy Morgan

Consumer Confidence Rating

^

136.8

133.8

133.7

128.8

129.7

130.5

126.6

121.6

122.5

123.2

118.7

121.4

120.7

120.5

124.3

122.7

119.8

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.


 

2007

 

Oct

Nov

Dec

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Beg

Mid

Interviews

1,010 985 952 974 958 1,028

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

Better off

37 43 38 37 48 49
 

Worse off

29 24 27 29 28 25

Question 1 difference

8 19 11 8 20 24

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

Better off

48 54 49 52 58 59
 

Worse off

21 16 16 15 16 16

Question 2 difference

27 38 33 37 42 43

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

Good Times

37 45 40 40 43 43
 

Bad Times

36 26 29 27 27 29

Question 3 difference

1 19 11 13 16 14

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?

 

Good times

46 48 44 44 50 45
 

Bad times

24 19 19 21 22 21

Question 4 difference

22 29 25 23 28 24

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?

 

Good time to buy

52 57 56 51 55 54
 

Bad time to buy

30 22 23 27 27 28

Question 5 difference

22 35 33 24 28 26

Roy Morgan

Consumer Confidence Rating

116.0 128.0 122.7 121.0 126.9 126.3

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.


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