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The early March NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is down 1.2 points to 95.9. The NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is now 20.9 points below the 116.8 it was in early March 2008.

The fall in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has been driven by increasing numbers of New Zealanders feeling saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.

Nearly half of New Zealanders, 46% (up 5% - and the highest since November 2008), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items while just 41% (down 5% - and the lowest since November 2008), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.

New Zealanders are very worried about 2009 with 63% (down 1%) of New Zealanders expecting ‘bad times’ economically through the next 12 months while only 20% (unchanged) expect ‘good times.’

Looking at the next five years, 45% (down 1%) of New Zealanders expect ‘good times’ for the country during the next five years which compares favourably to the 29% (up 2% - and the highest since October 2008) who expect ‘bad times.’

In terms of personal finances, 41% (down 4%) of New Zealanders say that their family is financially ‘worse off’ than a year ago compared to just 27% (up 1%) who say that they’re family is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago.

New Zealanders are still positive about their family’s financial position when looking forward with 49% (down 1% - and the lowest since August 2008) of New Zealanders expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time compared to 24% (down 1%) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially in a year’s time.

Gary Morgan says:

“The New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is down 1.2 points to 95.9. This is the lowest figure for the New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating since August 2008.

“The most striking development is the falling number of New Zealanders saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items — down 5% to 41%. It is now at its lowest level for five months, since November 2008.

“Despite the lower Consumer Confidence figure, new Prime Minister John Key has delivered on his election promises and Key’s support has risen strongly in recent weeks, the latest New Zealand Morgan Poll shows the National Party on 56% (up 7.5%) compared to the Labour Party (26%, down 6%).”

This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from February 16 — March 1, 2009, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,072 people aged 14 and over.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.  The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

	Percentage Estimate
Sample Size	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
																									Yearly Average
Year	Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep		Oct*		Nov		Dec
2004	135.7		131.7		130.2		133.5		129.8		130		134.4		132.9		133.9		135.4		135		136.1		133.2
																			Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2005	140.9		139.1		136		125.2		125.5		128		127.7		125.6		126.2		121.4	121.3	121.4	119.8	121.1	117.5	126.4
	Beg Jan	Mid Jan	Beg Feb	Mid Feb	Beg Mar	Mid Mar	Beg Apr	Mid Apr	Beg May	Mid May	Beg Jun	Mid Jun	Beg Jul	Mid Jul	Beg Aug	Mid Aug	Beg Sep	Mid Sep	Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2006	118.3	123	111	115	115.1	116.5	115.7	116.7	104.8	112.5	110.8	114	115.4	118.8	112.1	113.3	115.5	123.8	123.4	124.8	124.0	123.3	128.2	127.8	117.7
2007	^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8	116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3	125.1
2008	^	121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6	99.7	100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7	87.8	94.9	107.3	109.9	102.3	97.0	98.3	99.7	105.6	100.1	99.9
2009	^	103.7	100.4	97.1	95.9																				99.3
Monthly Average	125.7		119.4		119.5		118.5		111.9		112.2		113.3		113.9		121.3		118.8		118.4		121.1		116.9

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005

^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2009) are as follows:

		2009
		Jan				Feb		Mar			Apr		May
															June		July		August		Sep
		Beg	Mid			Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		^	2,156			1,134	1,087	1,072
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	^	31			30	26	27
	Worse off	^	38			37	45	41
Question 1 difference		^	-7			-7	-19	-14
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	^	50			51	50	49
	Worse off	^	22			25	25	24
Question 2 difference		^	28			26	25	25
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	^	24			22	20	20
	Bad Times	^	56			60	64	63
Question 3 difference		^	-32			-38	-44	-43
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	^	46			43	46	45
	Bad times	^	25			27	27	29
Question 4 difference		^	21			16	19	16
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	^		48		45	46	41
	Bad time to buy	^		39		40	41	46
Question 5 difference		^		9		5	5	-5
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		^			103.7	100.4	97.1	95.9

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2009 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

		2009
		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off
	Worse off
Question 1 difference
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off
	Worse off
Question 2 difference
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times
	Bad Times
Question 3 difference
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times
	Bad times
Question 4 difference
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy
	Bad time to buy
Question 5 difference
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:

		2008
		Jan				Feb		Mar			Apr			May
																June		July		August		Sep
		Beg	Mid			Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		^	1,930			1,033	1,016	983		1,002	992		1,047	1,101	1,081
																987	900	1,119	1,074	1,036	1,034	1,031	1,020
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	^	44			46	38	40		36	32		35	28	28	22	25	22	23	24	28	27	31
	Worse off	^	29			28	34	35		35	41		42	49	51	54	50	58	56	56	51	47	46
Question 1 difference		^	15			18	4	5		1	-9		-7	-21	-23	-32	-25	-36	-33	-32	-23	-20	-15
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	^	57			58	56	57		47	42		46	44	39	38	39	40	41	44	50	53	54
	Worse off	^	19			17	16	17		22	26		25	28	32	32	29	33	33	28	25	19	20
Question 2 difference		^	38			41	40	40		25	16	21		16	7	6	10	7	8	16	25	34	34
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	^	37			36	32	37		30	24		28	24	18	19	16	16	19	19	25	35	33
	Bad Times	^	32			38	40	36		47	52		52	58	61	60	62	64	64	60	55	43	40
Question 3 difference		^	5			-2	-8	1		-17	-28		-24	-34	-43	-41	-46	-48	-45	-41	-30	-8	-7
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	^	40			43	40	43		41	39		40	39	35	38	38	37	38	36	42	49	51
	Bad times	^	22			25	26	24		30	29		29	30	33	31	32	36	37	37	31	23	27
Question 4 difference		^	18			18	14	19		11	10		11	9	2	7	6	1	1	-1	11	26	24
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	^		57		46	51	49	46		45		39	38	34	34	37	35	41	42	39	45	46
	Bad time to buy	^		28		32	31	32	34		36		40	44	48	48	45	49	43	46	47	40	39
Question 5 difference		^		29		14	20	17	12		9		-1	-6	-14	-14	-8	-14	-2	-4	-8	5	7
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		^			121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6		99.7		100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7	87.8	94.9	107.3	109.9

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

		2008
		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		1,106	946	1,094	1,047	1,058	1,145
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	30	31	30	32	39	28
	Worse off	47	44	44	43	33	42
Question 1 difference		-17	-13	-14	-11	6	-14
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	55	52	52	52	50	50
	Worse off	18	22	19	20	22	23
Question 2 difference		37	30	33	32	28	27
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	30	23	24	26	26	24
	Bad Times	51	61	55	54	56	56
Question 3 difference		-21	-38	-31	-28	-30	-32
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	49	47	48	46	51	48
	Bad times	27	29	27	25	26	27
Question 4 difference		22	18	21	21	25	21
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	39	37	35	37	45	42
	Bad time to buy	49	49	52	51	45	44
Question 5 difference		-10	-12	-17	14	0	-2
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		102.3	97.0	98.3	99.7	105.6	100.1

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:

		2007
		Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		^	1,956	967	990	1,080	1,092	938	1,084	1,072	1,195	1,040	1,001	1,054	1,077	1,003	1,036	980	1,023
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	^	41	40	44	40	43	41	42	41	41	41	37	39	37	40	42	41	40
	Worse off	^	21	23	22	26	23	25	24	26	27	25	30	23	29	23	25	26	27
Question 1 difference		^	20	17	22	14	20	16	18	15	14	16	7	16	8	17	17	15	13
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	^	58	56	56	55	59	57	52	52	52	50	50	48	50	51	52	53	51
	Worse off	^	12	16	13	15	13	15	15	18	16	17	19	18	16	17	15	14	18
Question 2 difference		^	46	40	43	40	46	42	37	34	36	33	31	30	34	34	37	39	33
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	^	52	51	50	48	45	47	45	38	40	43	40	41	37	33	37	39	39
	Bad Times	^	18	20	23	28	26	26	28	35	30	30	37	30	34	37	37	32	30
Question 3 difference		^	34	31	27	20	19	21	17	3	10	13	3	11	3	-4	0	7	9
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	^	52	53	51	49	50	54	47	44	45	46	45	46	44	40	47	44	47
	Bad times	^	17	17	23	23	22	20	24	28	28	26	25	24	24	23	22	20	21
Question 4 difference		^	35	36	28	26	28	34	23	16	17	20	20	22	20	17	25	24	26
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	^	66	64	64	63	57	61	58	61	59	57	58	55	60	61	64	56	50
	Bad time to buy	^	17	19	16	19	22	21	20	21	23	23	26	26	22	22	22	28	32
Question 5 difference		^	49	45	48	44	35	40	38	40	36	34	32	29	38	39	42	28	18
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

		2007
		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		1,010	985	952	974	958	1,028
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	37	43	38	37	48	49
	Worse off	29	24	27	29	28	25
Question 1 difference		8	19	11	8	20	24
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	48	54	49	52	58	59
	Worse off	21	16	16	15	16	16
Question 2 difference		27	38	33	37	42	43
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	37	45	40	40	43	43
	Bad Times	36	26	29	27	27	29
Question 3 difference		1	19	11	13	16	14
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	46	48	44	44	50	45
	Bad times	24	19	19	21	22	21
Question 4 difference		22	29	25	23	28	24
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	52	57	56	51	55	54
	Bad time to buy	30	22	23	27	27	28
Question 5 difference		22	35	33	24	28	26
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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