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Everyone knows the ABS unemployment estimate is lower than Roy Morgan estimate.

However the latest ABS estimate claiming unemployment is actually down just doesn’t make sense.

The April Roy Morgan unemployment estimate, not seasonally adjusted, was up 0.1% to 7.1%.

The April ABS unemployment estimate, not seasonally adjusted, was also up 0.1% to 5.5%.

However, by the time the ABS had seasonally adjusted their April unemployment estimate — they had unemployment down 0.3% to 5.4%.

We have for some time been warning that the ABS method of measuring unemployment, and seasonally adjusting figures was not only problematic, but would become more distorted as the economic situation hit and unemployment and more especially underemployment ‘took off’.  This has now happened.  No-one would believe unemployment is down!

Gary Morgan                              Michele Levine

Executive Chairman                      Chief Executive

Comment on the ABS Figures

With the ABS survey a person needs to be able to start work in the 'reference week' — an unnecessary restriction!

In addition, if a person works only an hour in the survey week they are classified as employed — a nonsense!

The concern is the increasing number of under-employed - those people working only a few hours (many part-time workers and contractors) who want (need) more work. The ABS do not measure these people, the April Roy Morgan under-employment estimate was up 174,000 to 874,000 ‘real’ people!

In addition there are today many more people working full time but only 2, 3 or 4 days a days a week - the ABS say these people are employed!

The ABS survey was designed in the 1950s - before there were many ‘contractors’ or ‘part-time’ workers, so the ABS survey produces questionable figures on the ‘real’ unemployed and under-employed.

The ABS survey re-interviews the same household over 8 months eight times. The sample would 'quickly' become employment ‘experts!'

Most of the ABS household ‘re-interviews’ measuring people’s employment status are conducted by ‘telephone.’ In the late 1970s, when the current ABS survey was implemented in Australia, all re-interviews would have been conducted by ‘personal face-to-face’ interviews — fewer people than now had telephones!

To the best of our knowledge there is no ABS ‘paper’ showing the effect of changing the ‘re-interview’ method from ‘personal face-to-face’ to ‘telephone.’ For ‘critics’ to maintain the Australian ABS employment is ‘identical’ to overseas surveys is questionable!

How does the ABS replace households who move or refuse to continue to be part of the survey? We believe a very difficult task!

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

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