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The mid September NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating rose 5.5 points to 120 — its highest since January 2008. The NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 10.1 points higher than a year ago (109.9 in mid September 2008).

This large rise in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has been driven by the increasing confidence New Zealanders have about both the short and long-term future.

Now 56% (up 5% - and the highest since March 2008) of New Zealanders expect to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time compared to 12% (down 5% - and the lowest since January 2007) of New Zealanders that expect their family to be ‘worse off’ financially in a year’s time.

Over the next 12 months 47% (up 5% — and the highest since April 2007) of New Zealanders expect ‘good times’ economically for the country while 28% (down 3% - and the lowest since December 2007) of New Zealanders expect ‘bad times.’

A majority 64% (up 5% - and the highest recorded) of New Zealanders expect ‘good times’ for New Zealand during the next five years compared to 13% (down 1%) who expect ‘bad times.’

Looking back over the past year, 25% (up 2%) of New Zealanders say that they’re family is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago compared to 43% (down 2%) of New Zealanders that say their family is financially ‘worse off’ than a year ago.

In terms of buying major household items now 45% (up 2%) of New Zealanders say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 42% (up 2%), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.

Gary Morgan says:

“The New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has risen strongly (up 5.5pts to 120.0) and is now at its highest since January 2008 — the month New Zealand first fell into recession.

“The drivers of the strong rise in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating are the improving sentiment New Zealanders have about the future. Now 56% (highest for 18 months, since March 2008) of New Zealanders expect to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time and 47% (highest for 2 1/2 years, since April 2007) expect ‘good times’ economically for the country over the next 12 months.

“Clearly as New Zealanders become more confident about the future the chances of growth returning to the economy increase — the latest figures showing that 42% (up 2%) of New Zealanders say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items are also a strong pointer to improving retail sales in the weeks ahead.”

This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from August 31 - September 13, 2009, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,058 people aged 14 and over.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.  The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

	Percentage Estimate
Sample Size	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
																									Yearly Average
Year	Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep		Oct*		Nov		Dec
2004	135.7		131.7		130.2		133.5		129.8		130		134.4		132.9		133.9		135.4		135		136.1		133.2
																			Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2005	140.9		139.1		136		125.2		125.5		128		127.7		125.6		126.2		121.4	121.3	121.4	119.8	121.1	117.5	126.4
	Beg Jan	Mid Jan	Beg Feb	Mid Feb	Beg Mar	Mid Mar	Beg Apr	Mid Apr	Beg May	Mid May	Beg Jun	Mid Jun	Beg Jul	Mid Jul	Beg Aug	Mid Aug	Beg Sep	Mid Sep	Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2006	118.3	123	111	115	115.1	116.5	115.7	116.7	104.8	112.5	110.8	114	115.4	118.8	112.1	113.3	115.5	123.8	123.4	124.8	124.0	123.3	128.2	127.8	117.7
2007	^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8	116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3	125.1
2008	^	121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6	99.7	100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7	87.8	94.9	107.3	109.9	102.3	97.0	98.3	99.7	105.6	100.1	99.9
2009	^	103.7	100.4	97.1	95.9	93.4	97.6	104.6	104.0	105.8	107.1	103.4	106.1	107.8	114.1	112.3	114.5	120.0							105.2
Monthly Average	125.7		119.4		116.9		115.0		110.5		110.8		112.0		113.8		119.4		118.8		118.4		121.1		116.8

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005

^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2009) are as follows:

		2009
		Jan				Feb		Mar			Apr		May
															June		July		August		Sep
		Beg	Mid			Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		^	2,156			1,134	1,087	1,072		1,071	1,051	1,060	1,069	1,117
															1,033	1,038	1,015	1,039	1,023	1,013	1,026	1,058
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	^	31			30	26	27		26	25	25	27	24	27	24	23	20	24	23	23	25
	Worse off	^	38			37	45	41		42	44	40	41	42	39	43	43	46	42	44	45	43
Question 1 difference		^	-7			-7	-19	-14		-16	-19	-15	-14	18	-12	-19	-20	-26	-18	-21	-22	-18
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	^	50			51	50	49		48	51	51	49	50	51	49	51	47	55	55	51	56
	Worse off	^	22			25	25	24		26	25	18	24	20	18	21	16	20	15	16	17	12
Question 2 difference		^	28			26	25	25		22	26	33	25	30	33	28	35	27	40	39	34	44
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	^	24			22	20	20		21	23	27	28	29	29	26	28	31	37	40	42	47
	Bad Times	^	56			60	64	63		64	59	53	56	53	49	53	50	41	38	39	31	28
Question 3 difference		^	-32			-38	-44	-43		-43	-36	-26	-28	-24	-20	-27	-22	-10	-1	1	11	19
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	^	46			43	46	45		43	48	55	57	54	55	52	55	56	63	62	59	64
	Bad times	^	25			27	27	29		31	24	22	22	20	19	17	18	13	11	13	14	13
Question 4 difference		^	21			16	19	16		12	24	33	35	34	36	35	37	43	52	49	45	51
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	^		48		45	46	41	38		40	41	44	45	42	42	42	45	41	37	43	45
	Bad time to buy	^		39		40	41	46	45		47	44	42	39	42	42	42	40	43	43	40	42
Question 5 difference		^		9		5	5	-5	-7		-7	-3	2	6	0	0	0	5	-2	-6	3	3
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		^			103.7	100.4	97.1	95.9	93.4		97.6	104.6	104.0	105.8	107.1	103.4	106.1	107.8	114.1	112.3	114.5	120.0

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2009 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

		2009
		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off
	Worse off
Question 1 difference
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off
	Worse off
Question 2 difference
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times
	Bad Times
Question 3 difference
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times
	Bad times
Question 4 difference
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy
	Bad time to buy
Question 5 difference
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:

		2008
		Jan				Feb		Mar			Apr			May
																June		July		August		Sep
		Beg	Mid			Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		^	1,930			1,033	1,016	983		1,002	992		1,047	1,101	1,081
																987	900	1,119	1,074	1,036	1,034	1,031	1,020
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	^	44			46	38	40		36	32		35	28	28	22	25	22	23	24	28	27	31
	Worse off	^	29			28	34	35		35	41		42	49	51	54	50	58	56	56	51	47	46
Question 1 difference		^	15			18	4	5		1	-9		-7	-21	-23	-32	-25	-36	-33	-32	-23	-20	-15
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	^	57			58	56	57		47	42		46	44	39	38	39	40	41	44	50	53	54
	Worse off	^	19			17	16	17		22	26		25	28	32	32	29	33	33	28	25	19	20
Question 2 difference		^	38			41	40	40		25	16	21		16	7	6	10	7	8	16	25	34	34
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	^	37			36	32	37		30	24		28	24	18	19	16	16	19	19	25	35	33
	Bad Times	^	32			38	40	36		47	52		52	58	61	60	62	64	64	60	55	43	40
Question 3 difference		^	5			-2	-8	1		-17	-28		-24	-34	-43	-41	-46	-48	-45	-41	-30	-8	-7
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	^	40			43	40	43		41	39		40	39	35	38	38	37	38	36	42	49	51
	Bad times	^	22			25	26	24		30	29		29	30	33	31	32	36	37	37	31	23	27
Question 4 difference		^	18			18	14	19		11	10		11	9	2	7	6	1	1	-1	11	26	24
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	^		57		46	51	49	46		45		39	38	34	34	37	35	41	42	39	45	46
	Bad time to buy	^		28		32	31	32	34		36		40	44	48	48	45	49	43	46	47	40	39
Question 5 difference		^		29		14	20	17	12		9		-1	-6	-14	-14	-8	-14	-2	-4	-8	5	7
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		^			121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6		99.7		100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7	87.8	94.9	107.3	109.9

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

		2008
		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		1,106	946	1,094	1,047	1,058	1,145
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	30	31	30	32	39	28
	Worse off	47	44	44	43	33	42
Question 1 difference		-17	-13	-14	-11	6	-14
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	55	52	52	52	50	50
	Worse off	18	22	19	20	22	23
Question 2 difference		37	30	33	32	28	27
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	30	23	24	26	26	24
	Bad Times	51	61	55	54	56	56
Question 3 difference		-21	-38	-31	-28	-30	-32
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	49	47	48	46	51	48
	Bad times	27	29	27	25	26	27
Question 4 difference		22	18	21	21	25	21
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	39	37	35	37	45	42
	Bad time to buy	49	49	52	51	45	44
Question 5 difference		-10	-12	-17	14	0	-2
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		102.3	97.0	98.3	99.7	105.6	100.1

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:

		2007
		Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		^	1,956	967	990	1,080	1,092	938	1,084	1,072	1,195	1,040	1,001	1,054	1,077	1,003	1,036	980	1,023
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	^	41	40	44	40	43	41	42	41	41	41	37	39	37	40	42	41	40
	Worse off	^	21	23	22	26	23	25	24	26	27	25	30	23	29	23	25	26	27
Question 1 difference		^	20	17	22	14	20	16	18	15	14	16	7	16	8	17	17	15	13
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	^	58	56	56	55	59	57	52	52	52	50	50	48	50	51	52	53	51
	Worse off	^	12	16	13	15	13	15	15	18	16	17	19	18	16	17	15	14	18
Question 2 difference		^	46	40	43	40	46	42	37	34	36	33	31	30	34	34	37	39	33
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	^	52	51	50	48	45	47	45	38	40	43	40	41	37	33	37	39	39
	Bad Times	^	18	20	23	28	26	26	28	35	30	30	37	30	34	37	37	32	30
Question 3 difference		^	34	31	27	20	19	21	17	3	10	13	3	11	3	-4	0	7	9
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	^	52	53	51	49	50	54	47	44	45	46	45	46	44	40	47	44	47
	Bad times	^	17	17	23	23	22	20	24	28	28	26	25	24	24	23	22	20	21
Question 4 difference		^	35	36	28	26	28	34	23	16	17	20	20	22	20	17	25	24	26
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	^	66	64	64	63	57	61	58	61	59	57	58	55	60	61	64	56	50
	Bad time to buy	^	17	19	16	19	22	21	20	21	23	23	26	26	22	22	22	28	32
Question 5 difference		^	49	45	48	44	35	40	38	40	36	34	32	29	38	39	42	28	18
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

		2007
		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		1,010	985	952	974	958	1,028
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	37	43	38	37	48	49
	Worse off	29	24	27	29	28	25
Question 1 difference		8	19	11	8	20	24
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	48	54	49	52	58	59
	Worse off	21	16	16	15	16	16
Question 2 difference		27	38	33	37	42	43
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	37	45	40	40	43	43
	Bad Times	36	26	29	27	27	29
Question 3 difference		1	19	11	13	16	14
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	46	48	44	44	50	45
	Bad times	24	19	19	21	22	21
Question 4 difference		22	29	25	23	28	24
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	52	57	56	51	55	54
	Bad time to buy	30	22	23	27	27	28
Question 5 difference		22	35	33	24	28	26
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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