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• Consumer confidence fell for the second consecutive month, as less people feel confident about the outlook for the economy in 12 months time.

• Consumers are also feeling the financial pinch, and last month’s rise in intentions to purchase a major household item reverses.

• The labour market may be improving, but there are plenty of other influences working in the opposite direction.

It looks like households will remain cautious with their spending for a while. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence measure fell 6 points in July. While off its recent peak of 131.4 in January, the overall level of household sentiment remains positive at 115.6. However, it has now fallen below the historical average of 119.6, and is the lowest reading in almost a year.

What is unclear is the extent that recent global market volatility played in this month’s fall. Ongoing sluggishness in the housing market, with house prices still under downward pressure, is no doubt weighing. And price increases for electricity and petrol as the emissions trading scheme came into effect from 1 July could also have been a factor behind consumers feeling less confident.

There are certainly positives out there, including an improving labour market, which official figures out in two weeks time will no doubt show. Longer term fixed mortgage rates have fallen, and those tax cuts are getting ever closer. But it seems the negatives are outweighing the positives in the consumers’ minds at present.

Click here to view the full July ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating PDF

(115.6, down 6.4pts)

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