Australian unemployment virtually unchanged in December - 773,000 (6.8%), down 4,000 Unemployment is still 73,000 higher than December 2008 14.9% (1.706m, up 5,000) Australian workers are unemployed or ‘under-employed’
| Finding No. 4454 -
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering January 2007 – December 2009 and in total 156,627 Australians aged 14 and over were interviewed face-to-face including 4,238 interviews in December 2009.:
January 07, 2010 |
- In the month of December Australia’s total unemployment as measured by Roy Morgan was virtually unchanged at 773,000 (6.8%), down 4,000 (0.1%) since November, but up 73,000 since December 2008.
- In December 2009 there were 7,193,000 (up 134,000 on November 2009 and up 150,000 on December 2008) Australians working full-time and 3,468,000 (down 38,000 on November 2009, but up a significant 344,000 on December 2008) working part-time.
- The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is 1.1% above the 5.7% currently quoted by the ABS for November.
- The Roy Morgan December 2009 ‘under-employed’* estimate is 932,000 (8.2%), up 8,000 (0.1%) on November 2009, but up a significant 200,000 on December 2008.
- In total in December an estimated 1,706,000 (14.9%) Australians were unemployed or ‘under-employed,’* up 5,000 (down 0.1% due to the increasing size of the workforce) on November 2009.
- In December 2009 there were 454,000 (up 50,000 on November 2009, and up 84,000 on December 2008) Australians looking for full-time work and 319,000 (down 54,000 on November 2009, and down 11,000 on December 2008) Australians looking for part-time work.
|
Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate |
|
2007# |
Unemployed or ‘Under-employed’* |
‘Under-employed’* |
Unemployed |
Looking for |
|
‘000 % |
‘000 % |
‘000 % |
Full-time |
Part-time |
|
‘000 |
‘000 |
|
Jan—Mar 2007 |
1,500 14.3 |
743 7.1 |
757 7.2 |
399 |
358 |
|
Apr—June 2007 |
1,275 11.9 |
679 6.3 |
596 5.6 |
305 |
291 |
|
July—Sep 2007 |
1,333 12.5 |
719 6.7 |
614 5.8 |
317 |
297 |
|
Oct—Dec 2007 |
1,406 13.2 |
759 7.1 |
647 6.1 |
330 |
317 |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan—Mar 2008 |
1,382 12.9 |
736 6.9 |
646 6.0 |
366 |
280 |
|
Apr—June 2008 |
1,383 12.9 |
751 7.0 |
632 5.9 |
311 |
321 |
|
July—Sep 2008 |
1,319 12.0 |
735 6.7 |
584 5.3 |
314 |
270 |
|
Oct—Dec 2008 |
1,474 13.6 |
800 7.4 |
674 6.2 |
352 |
322 |
|
2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan—Mar 2009 |
1,536 13.9 |
727 6.6 |
809 7.3 |
386 |
423 |
|
Apr—June 2009 |
1,664 15.0 |
835 7.5 |
829 7.5 |
487 |
342 |
|
July—Sep 2009 |
1,734 15.4 |
909 8.1 |
825 7.3 |
485 |
340 |
|
Months |
|
|
|
|
|
|
October 2008 |
1,485 13.5 |
860 7.8 |
625 5.7 |
353 |
272 |
|
November 2008 |
1,504 13.8 |
808 7.4 |
696 6.4 |
333 |
363 |
|
December 2008 |
1,432 13.2 |
732 6.7 |
700 6.4 |
370 |
330 |
|
January 2009 |
1,550 13.9 |
783 7.0 |
767 6.9 |
415 |
352 |
|
February 2009 |
1,583 14.3 |
699 6.3 |
884 8.0 |
508 |
376 |
|
March 2009 |
1,475 13.4 |
700 6.4 |
775 7.0 |
408 |
367 |
|
April 2009 |
1,673 14.9 |
874 7.8 |
799 7.1 |
475 |
324 |
|
May 2009 |
1,486 13.3 |
661 5.9 |
825 7.4 |
500 |
325 |
|
June 2009 |
1,829 16.6 |
967 8.8 |
862 7.8 |
487 |
375 |
|
July 2009 |
1,883 16.6 |
1,022 9.0 |
861 7.6 |
554 |
307 |
|
August 2009 |
1,636 14.4 |
798 7.0 |
838 7.4 |
433 |
405 |
|
September 2009 |
1,684 15.1 |
909 8.2 |
775 6.9 |
467 |
308 |
|
October 2009 |
1,672 14.9 |
861 7.7 |
811 7.2 |
430 |
381 |
|
November 2009 |
1,701 15.0 |
924 8.1 |
777 6.9 |
404 |
373 |
|
December 2009 |
1,706 14.9 |
932 8.2 |
773 6.8 |
454 |
319 |
# The revised Howard Government ‘Work Choices’ Legislation was implemented in late 2006,
just prior to the time period when the survey began in January 2007.
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest December Roy Morgan employment estimates shows unemployment virtually unchanged (773,000, down 4,000 from November 2009) which is the lowest since January 2009 (767,000). However, this small fall in unemployment has been offset by a second straight monthly rise in the number of Australia’s underemployed — now 932,000 (up 8,000 from November 2009).
“Overall, the Australian workforce has continued to grow, now at a record 11,434,000 (up 92,000 from November 2009). In line with the rising workforce, there are now a record 10,661,000 (up 96,000) Australians employed either full-time (7,193,000, up 134,000) or part-time (3,468,000, down 38,000).
“Although Roy Morgan figures show that unemployment and underemployment in Australia peaked in June (1,829,000 — 16.6%) and July (1,883,000 — 16.6%) of last year, comparing the Quarterly unemployment and underemployment figures for 2008 and 2009 shows that on a year-over-year basis unemployment and underemployment have risen substantially compared to a year ago.
“The table below shows a clear comparison between the combined unemployment and underemployment for each Quarter of 2008 and 2009. In the most recent October — December Quarter 2009, total unemployment and underemployment in Australia was 15.0% (1,693,000) — up 1.5% (219,000) on October — December 2008.
“A quick look at the table shows every Quarter in 2009 had a higher level of unemployed and underemployed than the corresponding Quarter in 2008. These figures indicate that despite the economy beginning a recovery in recent months, unemployment remains well above the levels prior to the Global Financial Crisis. It is too soon to declare that the Australian economy is ‘out of the woods.’”
|
Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate
Quarter-by-Quarter (2008 — 2009) |
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
Change (2008 — 2009) |
|
Jan—Mar |
1,382,000 (12.9%) |
1,536,000 (13.9%) |
+ 154,000 |
+1.0% |
|
Apr—June |
1,383,000 (12.9%) |
1,664,000 (15.0%) |
+ 281,000 |
+2.1% |
|
July—Sep |
1,319,000 (12.0%) |
1,734,000 (15.4%) |
+ 415,000 |
+3.4% |
|
Oct—Dec |
1,474,000 (13.5%) |
1,693,000 (15.0%) |
+ 219,000 |
+1.5% |
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering January 2007 — December 2009 and in total 156,627 Australians aged 14 and over were interviewed face-to-face including 4,238 interviews in December 2009.
*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.)
** The Fair Work Bill 2009 was introduced into the House of Representatives on 25 November 2008. The Fair Work Act 2009 received Royal Assent on 7 April 2009.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
|
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.
Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published!
/news/papers/2003/20030801 |



Roy Morgan Research vs. ABS Unemployment Estimates
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