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In July, support for the ALP in the Senate was 40% (down 0.3% since the November 24, 2007 half-Senate election). Coalition support was 36% (down 3.9%) and Greens support 15.5% (up 6.5%). Support for minor parties was Family First 2.5% (up 0.9%), One Nation 0.5% (up 0.1%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5.5% (down 3.3%).

On these figures the Senate composition would be ALP 33-34 Senators, LNP 31-32 Senators, Greens 10 Senators and 1 Independent, Nick Xenophon according to the latest Morgan Poll on Senate voting intention.

Results by State:

In New South Wales: ALP 40.5% (down 1.6% since the November 2007 half-Senate election), L-NP 36% (down 3.3%), Greens 17% (up 8.6%), Family First 1% (up 0.4%), CDP 1% (down 1%), One Nation 0.5% (up 0.1%) and Others 4% (down 3.2%). If this year’s half-Senate election in New South Wales were held in July, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have three Senators, L-NP two Senators, and the Greens one Senator.

In Victoria: ALP 42% (up 0.3% since the November 2007 half-Senate election), L-NP 36.5% (down 3%), Greens 14% (up 3.9%), Family First 2.5% (unchanged), One Nation 0.5% (up 0.1%) and Others 4.5% (down 1.3%). If this year’s half-Senate election in Victoria were held in July, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have three Senators, L-NP two Senators, and the Greens one Senator.

In Queensland: ALP 36.5% (down 2.7% since the November 2007 half-Senate election), LNP 40% (down 0.4%), Greens 13% (up 5.7%), Family First 3% (up 0.8%), One Nation 1% (up 0.8%) and Others 6.5% (down 4.2%). If this year’s half-Senate election in Queensland were held in June & July, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have two Senators, LNP two Senators, Greens one Senator with the remaining Senator determined by preferences but probably an LNP Senator.

In Western Australia: ALP 32.5% (down 3.5% since the November 2007 half-Senate election), L-NP 41% (down 6.6%), Greens 18% (up 8.7%), Family First 2% (up 1.1%), CDP 1% (down 0.8%), One Nation 2% (up 1%) and Others 3.5% (up 0.1%). If this year’s half-Senate election in Western Australia were held in June & July, of the six newly elected Senators the LNP would have three Senators, ALP two Senators, and the Greens one Senator.

In South Australia: ALP 35.5% (down 0.1% since the November 2007 half-Senate election), L-NP 35% (down 0.6%), Greens 16.5% (up 10%), Others 5.5% (up 1.5%), Nick Xenophon (although Xenophon is not standing for re-election) 3.5% (down 11.3%), Family First 3.5% (up 0.6%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.1%). If this year’s half-Senate election in South Australia were held in June & July, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have two Senators, L-NP two Senators, Greens one Senator and the final position determined by preferences and most likely either an ALP or L-NP Senator, but perhaps even a minor party Senator.

In Tasmania: ALP 42% (up 1.9% since the November 2007 half-Senate election), Liberal 29% (down 8.4%), Greens 21.5% (up 3.4%), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 5% (up 2.6%). If this year’s half-Senate election in Tasmania were held in May — July, of the six newly elected Senators the ALP would have three Senators, Liberals two Senators, and the Greens one Senator.

In ACT: ALP 41.5% (up 0.7%), L-NP 27% (down 7.2%), Greens 27% (up 5.5%) and Others 4.5% (up 1%).  This would most likely result in one ACT ALP Senator and one Greens Senator.

Results for Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia are for June — July 2010.

Results for Tasmania are for May — July 2010 and results for ACT are for February — July 2010.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Greens look certain to win the balance of power in the Senate following next week’s Federal Election. This special Morgan Poll on Senate voting intention shows the Greens winning Senate seats in all States and the ACT. Together with the existing three Greens Senators not up for re-election this could mean a total of 10 Greens Senators would be in the Upper House following July 1, 2011 when the new Senators take their seats.

“The biggest hurdle for the Greens to overcome may well be the manning of polling places. In previous elections for the lower house the Morgan Poll has overstated the Greens vote achieved on election day — a major reason for this is because the Greens have not been able to be present and handing out ‘how-to-vote Greens’ cards at all polling places. Overcoming this problem remains the Greens biggest barrier to winning the seven Senate seats expected at this half-Senate election.

“Family First Senator Steve Fielding looks set to lose his Victorian Senate seat — won on a series of extraordinary preference deals at the 2004 Federal Election — as preference flows will not favour Fielding to the same extent next week. However, in South Australia the race for the final Senate spot will depend on preference deals and although the major parties are favoured, it is possible another minor party Senator could be elected.

“Overall the ALP is projected to have 33-34 Senators (16 elected in 2007, and Senators elected at this year’s half-Senate election in the following numbers: NSW (3); VIC (3); TAS (3); QLD (2); SA (2); WA (2); ACT (1); NT (1) and perhaps 1 extra Senator from SA) — a net gain of 1-2 Senators. The L-NP is projected to have 31-32 Senators (16 elected in 2007, and Senators elected at this year’s half-Senate election in the following numbers: QLD (3); WA (3); NSW (2); VIC (2); SA (2); TAS (2); NT (1) and perhaps 1 extra Senator from SA) — a net loss of 5-6 Senators. The Greens will have 10 (a net gain of 5) with Independent Nick Xenophon set to lose his current share of the balance of power.”

Note: For Senate candidates to be elected at this year’s half-Senate election on August 21, 2010, the quota is 14.3% and six Senators are elected from each State. In a double-dissolution election candidates must obtain 7.7% or more of the vote (the quota) in a State when all Senators (12 per State) are to be elected.

In the ACT and the NT in which both Senate seats are up for re-election at every Federal Election the quote is 33.4% to win a seat.

See following tables for full analysis by States, month interviewed and demographic breakdown.

These are the main findings of the latest Morgan Senate Poll, conducted face-to-face in all electorates throughout Australia with:

• 1,195 electors in New South Wales during July 2010 — of all NSW electors surveyed, 5.1% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
  
• 731 electors in Victoria during July 2010 — of all Victorian electors surveyed, 4.1% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
  
• 1,497 electors in Queensland during June — July 2010 — of all Queensland electors surveyed, 4.4% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
  
• 622 electors in Western Australia during June — July 2010 — of all WA electors surveyed, 3.1% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
  
• 591 electors in South Australia during June — July 2010 — of all SA electors surveyed, 4.1% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
  
• 451 electors in Tasmania during May — July 2010 — of all Tasmanian electors surveyed, 3.4% were undecided on Senate voting intention;
  
• 446 electors in the ACT during February — July, 2010 of all ACT electors surveyed, 2.3% were undecided on Senate voting intention.

Respondents were asked: “If a Federal Election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

COMPOSITION OF THE AUSTRALIAN SENATE:

Total Australia:	Currently	Not up for Re-election	Newly Elected in 2010#	New Senate	Net Gains/ Loses
ALP	32	16	17-18	33-34	+1 / +2
Liberals (Including 3 LNP in Qld)	32	14	13-14	27-28
Nationals	4	2	1	3
Country Liberal	1	0	1	1
Total L-NP	37	16	15-16	31-32	-5 / -6
Greens	5	3	7	10	+5
Family First	1	0	0	0	-1
Independent (Nick Xenophon)*	1	1	0	1	-
TOTAL	76	36	40	76

*Independent South Australian Senator Nick Xenophon is currently not standing a candidate in the next half-Senate election. #Roy Morgan projection for 2010 half-Senate election.

SENATE VOTING INTENTION

Respondents were asked: “If a Federal Election for the Senate were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Total Australia:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	43.5	43	2.9	n/a	n/a	10.6
March 2, 1996	36.2	44	1.7	n/a	n/a	18.1
October 3, 1998	37.3	36.5	2.2	n/a	9.0	15
November 10, 2001	34.1	42	4.9	n/a	5.6	13.4
October 9, 2004	35	44.7	7.7	1.8	1.7	9.1
November 24, 2007	40.3	39.9	9	1.6	0.4	8.8
Morgan Poll:
January & February, 2007	42	36	10	2	1	9
March & April, 2007	45.5	32.5	9.5	2	1	9.5
May & June, 2007	45.5	33.5	9.5	2	1	8.5
July & August, 2007	43	37	8.5	2	1	8.5
September 2007	46.5	33.5	9.5	2	1	7.5
October 2007	44.5	35.5	9	2	1	8
January 2009	43.5	34	11	2.5	0.5	8.5
February 2009	43	34	12.5	2.5	0.5	7.5
March 2009	43	34	12	2.5	0.5	8
July 2010	40	36	15.5	2.5	0.5	5.5

	All Electors	Area		Gender		Age
		City	Country	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	40	41	38.5	37.5	42.5	42.5	35	41	40.5
Liberal	33	34	32	35	31.5	27	31	29.5	37.5
National	3	1	5.5	3	2.5	2.5	3.5	2.5	3
Total L-NP	36	35	37.5	38	34	29.5	34.5	32	40.5
Greens	15.5	16.5	14.5	16.5	14.5	20	21	17.5	11.5
Family First	2.5	2	2.5	2	2.5	3	2.5	3.5	1.5
One Nation	0.5	0.5	1	1	0.5	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
Other	5.5	5	6	5	6	3.5	6.5	5.5	5.5
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Senate Vote by States:

New South Wales:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	CDP	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	46.9	38.9	3.4	n/a	n/a	^	10.8
March 2,  1996	37.2	41.4	2.7	n/a	n/a	^	18.7
October 3, 1998	38.7	36.6	2.2	n/a	9.6	^	12.9
November 10, 2001	33.5	41.8	4.4	n/a	5.6	^	14.7
October 9, 2004	36.4	44.1	7.3	0.6	1.9	^	9.7
November 24, 2007	42.1	39.3	8.4	0.6	0.4	2	7.2
Morgan Poll:
January 2009	46.5	34.5	10.5	1	0.5	1.5	5.5
February 2009	45.5	32.5	12	2.5	0.5	1.5	5.5
March 2009	46	34	11.5	2	0.5	2	4
July 2010	40.5	36	17	1	0.5	1	4

^ Result included in “Other.”

Victoria:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	45	44.1	1.2	n/a	n/a	9.7
March 2, 1996	39.8	41.4	2.9	n/a	n/a	15.9
October 3, 1998	40.6	37.9	2.5	n/a	4.1	14.9
November 10, 2001	36.8	39.6	6	n/a	2.5	15.1
October 9, 2004	36.1	44.1	8.8	1.9	0.7	8.4
November 24, 2007	41.7	39.5	10.1	2.5	0.4	5.8
Morgan Poll:
January 2009	43.5	34.5	13.5	2.5	0.5	5.5
February 2009	44	35	13	3	1	4
March 2009	42.5	34	13.5	4	0.5	5.5
July 2010	42	36.5	14	2.5	0.5	4.5

Queensland:	ALP	LNP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	39.4	46	3.2	n/a	n/a	11.4
March 2, 1996	30.3	50.4	2.4	n/a	n/a	16.9
October 3, 1998	32.7	38	2.1	n/a	14.8	12.4
November 10, 2001	31.7	44.1	3.3	n/a	10	10.9
October 9, 2004	31.7	44.9	5.4	3.4	3.1	11.5
November 24, 2007*	39.2	40.4	7.3	2.2	0.2	10.7
Morgan Poll:
January 2009	44.5	31.5	8	3.5	1.5	11
February 2009	40.5	35	11.5	2	1	9.5
March 2009	42	34.5	12	1.5	0	10
June & July 2010	36.5	40	13	3	1	6.5

^ From March 10/11, 2007; *The Liberal Party & National Party combined for the Senate in this Election.

Western Australia:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	CDP	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	38.3	50.1	5.5	n/a	n/a	^	6.1
March 2, 1996	34	47.5	5.7	n/a	n/a	^	12.8
October 3, 1998	34.7	39.7	5.7	n/a	10.4	^	9.5
November 10, 2001	34.2	42.5	5.9	n/a	7	^	10.4
October 9, 2004	32.5	50.2	8.1	0.9	2.5	^	5.8
November 24, 2007	36	47.6	9.3	0.9	1	1.8	3.4
Morgan Poll:
September & October 2007	39	43.5	10.5	1.5	1	1	3.5
January — March 2009	39	40.5	11	2.5	0.5	2	4.5
June & July 2010	32.5	41	18	2	2	1	3.5

^ Result included in “Other.”

South Australia:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Family First	One Nation	Xenophon	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	38	45.6	1.6	n/a	n/a	n/a	14.8
March 2, 1996	32.2	45.8	2.1	n/a	n/a	n/a	19.9
October 3, 1998	32	40.5	2.2	n/a	9.7	n/a	15.6
November 10, 2001	33.2	45.5	3.5	n/a	4.6	n/a	13.2
October 9, 2004	35.5	47.9	6.6	4	1.1	n/a	4.9
November 24, 2007	35.6	35.6	6.5	2.9	0.6	14.8	4
Morgan Poll:
January — March 2009	40.5	27	9	3.5	0.5	n/a	19.5*
June & July 2010	35.5	35	16.5	3.5	0.5	3.5	5.5

*Nick Xenophon stood in the 2007 Election and was elected. Xenophon is not up for re-election at the 2010 Federal Election.

Tasmania:	ALP	Lib.	Greens	Family First	Other
	%	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	42.7	36.7^	6.8	n/a	13.8
March 2, 1996	39.1	42.3^	8.7	n/a	9.9
October 3, 1998	41.6	33.8^	5.8	n/a	18.8
November 10, 2001	36.8	38.8^	13.8	n/a	10.6
October 9, 2004	33.5	46.1	13.3	2.4	4.7
November 24, 2007	40.1	37.4	18.1	2	2.4
Morgan Poll:
January — March 2009	42.5	32.5	15.5	2.5	7
May — July 2010	42	29	21.5	2.5	5

^ Results for Liberal-National Coalition. * The January/February and March/April Tasmanian Senate results were combined due to small sample.

ACT:	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Other
	%	%	%	%
Senate Election:
March 13, 1993	48.6	35.0	6.1	3.4
March 2, 1996	42.6	39.0	5.9	2.3
October 3, 1998	42.6	31.2	3.2	6.3
November 10, 2001	42.0	34.3	7.2	5.8
October 9, 2004	41.1	37.9	16.4	2.5
November 24, 2007	40.8	34.2	21.5	3.5
Morgan Poll:
October 2008 - February 2009	41.5	26.5	26	6
February — July 2010	41.5	27	27	4.5

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1
5,000	±1.4	±1.2	±0.8	±0.6

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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