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The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over two weekends, just before Christmas, December 19/20, 2009, and last weekend, January 2/3, 2010 shows the ALP (57%, down 2% since the last face-to-face poll conducted on December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009) maintaining a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (43%, up 2%).

The ALP primary vote fell 3.5% to 45.5%, but remains clearly ahead of the L-NP (37%, up 2.5%), while looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens rising (10%, up 2%), Family First (2%, up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others (5.5%, down 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 132.5 (down 4pts) with 58.5% (down 1%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 26% (up 3%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for January 2/3, 2010 is 127.8, up 7.4pts from the last Consumer Confidence rating conducted on December 19/20, 2009.

Gary Morgan says:

“The first Morgan Poll to be released in 2010 shows a fall in Two-Party support for the ALP Government (57%, down 2%) over the Christmas & New Year period while the L-NP have increased to 43% (up 2%). Polling was conducted on the weekends of December 19/20, 2009 — the weekend before Christmas, and January 2/3, 2009 — the first weekend of 2010.

“Although this result shows a drop in support for the Government, other Roy Morgan survey results show better news for the Government entering an election year. The first Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for 2010 (conducted on January 2/3, 2010)  shows a strong jump (127.8, up 7.4pts since December 19/20) — with all components of Consumer Confidence rising strongly.

“Even more crucial for the Government is Roy Morgan’s December unemployment figure which shows unemployment virtually unchanged — 6.8% (down 0.1% from November 2009). However, the ‘sleeper’ issue for the Rudd Government remains the overall Australian underemployment and unemployment (1,706,000 in December 2009), which remains 274,000 higher than in December 2008 (1,432,000).”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,555 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (up 1.0%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

During the polling period:

• Australia brings in 2010 with a bang
  Crowds around Australia have welcomed the new decade, with organisers hailing the party around Sydney Harbour as the biggest New Year's Eve show in the world.

• Australia mulls security after failed attack
  The Federal Government says it is in touch with US authorities to safeguard travel in Australia after a man tried to detonate an explosive on a flight to Detroit.

• Australians rack up record debt

Australian households are in record levels of debt, and for the first time have surpassed American levels.

• Australian market climbs to new two-month high
  The Australian share market has risen to a new two-month high with gains across all sectors.

• Australia facing flames and flooding
  The East and West coasts of Australia are facing opposing weather emergencies with floodwaters threatening New South Wales as Western Australia braces for catastrophic fire conditions.

• WA fire declared a natural disaster
  Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett has declared a fire that destroyed more than 37 homes at Toodyay, 80km north-east of Perth, a natural disaster.

• Crews rescue stranded flood residents
  Emergency services crews have spent the night helping stranded farmers and residents at Brewarrina and Bourke in North-West New South Wales as flood waters continue to rise.

• Alfa ends Wild Oats' Sydney-Hobart reign
  New Zealand supermaxi Alfa Romeo has taken line honours in the 2009 blue-water classic Sydney to Hobart yacht race, breaking Wild Oats XI's record four-year winning streak.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Note: National Party results are in brackets.

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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