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In 2010’s first Better Prime Minister poll 61% (up 1% since December 2/3, 2009) of Australian electors prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister while 25% (unchanged) prefer Tony Abbott and 14% (down 1%) are undecided or prefer someone else. According to this special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (January 13/14, 2010).

The Morgan Poll also finds Kevin Rudd’s approval of the way he’s handling his job as Prime Minister is now 50% (down 3% since December 2/3, 2009) while 35% (down 1%) disapprove and 15% (up 4%) are undecided.

Increasing numbers of Australian electors are making up their mind about new Opposition Leader Tony Abbot with 41% (up 7%), approving of the way Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is handling his job compared to 32% (up 5%) that disapprove and a still considerable 27% (down 12%) that can’t say.

Analysis by voting intention shows that of ALP voters 78% (down 8% since December 2/3, 2009, and down 15% since October 7/8, 2009) approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job, 9% (up 4%) disapprove and 13% (up 4%) are undecided.

Of Liberal voters 64% (up 12% since December 2/3, 2009) approve of the way Mr. Abbott is handling is job, 12% (up 1%) disapprove while nearly a quarter, 24% (down 13%) remain undecided.

Better Prime Minister — Rudd v Abbott

	Rudd v Turnbull							Rudd v Abbott
	Sep 10/11, 2008#	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct 15/16, 2008	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mr. Rudd	63	55	62.5	69	60.5	70	69	60	61
Mr. Abbott	24	30	24	20	26.5	20	18	25	25
Rudd lead	39	25	38.5	49	34	50	51	35	36
Other / Can’t say	13	15	13.5	11	13	10	13	15	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party on September 16, 2008; this Special Morgan Poll was taken with Rudd v Turnbull before Turnbull became Leader of the Opposition.

Gary Morgan says:

“Kevin Rudd (61%) has maintained his strong lead as Better Prime Minister over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (25%) over the summer holidays — but Rudd’s approval ratings have continued to fall from their record highs of 2008-09.

“Approval for Kevin Rudd’s handling of the job as Prime Minister is now 50%, down 3% since December 2/3, 2009, which is now down 18% from December 2008 (68%).

“In contrast, new Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has seen a strong rise in his approval ratings, now at 41% (up 7% since December 2/3, 2009). This is the highest approval rating for the Opposition Leader since May 20/21, 2009 when Australian electors gave Malcolm Turnbull a 43% approval rating for his handling of the job of Opposition Leader.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of January 13/14, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 541 electors.

Latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, conducted over the last two nights of January 13/14, 2010 shows the ALP (54.5%, up 1.5% on the telephone Morgan Poll conducted on December 4-9, 2009) ahead of the L-NP (45.5%, down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However in analysing this telephone poll result, it is worth noting that telephone polls have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events.

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Abbott?”

	Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	60	61	91	29	17	76	38	49
Abbott	25	25	4	56	58	14	27	16
Rudd lead	35	36	87	(27)	(41)	62	11	33
Other / Neither	15	14	5	15	25	10	35	35
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	60	61	61	61	66	69	61	57
Abbott	25	25	28	22	21	19	22	30
Rudd lead	35	36	33	39	45	50	39	27
Other / Neither	15	14	11	17	13	12	17	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Hockey

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Hockey. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Hockey?”

	Joe Hockey as Shadow Treasurer					Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	64	64	65	55	58	86	33	11	65	60	46
Hockey	22	23	19	31	26	7	51	65	19	25	20
Rudd lead	42	41	46	24	32	79	(18)	(54)	46	35	26
Other / Neither	14	13	16	14	16	7	16	24	16	15	34
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Joe Hockey as Shadow Treasurer					Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	64	64	65	55	58	62	55	60	62	62	54
Hockey	22	23	19	31	26	24	28	24	23	25	29
Rudd lead	42	41	46	24	32	38	27	36	39	37	25
Other / Neither	14	13	16	14	16	14	17	16	15	13	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Turnbull.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Turnbull?”

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Backbench		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	69	60.5	70	69	64	63	86	41	22	75	61	46
Turnbull	20	26.5	20	18	25	24	8	47	43	18	28	18
Rudd lead	49	34	50	51	39	39	78	(6)	(21)	57	33	28
Other / Neither	11	13	10	13	11	13	6	12	35	7	11	36
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Backbench		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	69	60.5	70	69	64	63	64	61	61	71	66	58
Turnbull	20	26.5	20	18	25	24	24	23	25	18	21	27
Rudd lead	49	34	50	51	39	39	40	38	36	53	45	31
Other / Neither	11	13	10	13	11	13	12	16	14	11	13	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval of Leaders — Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

	Prime Minister Rudd
	Sep 10/11, 2008	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct 15/16, 2008	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	56	55	64	68	57.5	63	66	53	50
Disapprove	33	31	23	21	33.5	29	24	36	35
Approve - Disapprove	23	24	41	47	24	34	42	17	15
Can’t say	11	14	13	11	9	8	10	11	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	50	78	24	23	43	34	40
Disapprove	35	9	64	77	27	51	45
Approve - Disapprove	15	69	(40)	(54)	16	(17)	(5)
Can’t say	15	13	12	0	30	15	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	50	52	47	56	61	52	43
Disapprove	35	33	36	25	25	28	45
Approve - Disapprove	15	19	11	31	36	24	(2)
Can’t say	15	15	17	19	14	20	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader						Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader
	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct 15/16, 2008	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	43	55	42	43	25	29	34	41
Disapprove	24	24	37.5	39	62.5	56	27	32
Approve - Disapprove	19	31	4.5	4	(37.5)	(27)	7	9
Can’t say	33	21	20.5	18	12.5	15	39	27
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	29	64	51	33	64	30
Disapprove	32	46	12	18	46	12	41
Approve - Disapprove	9	(17)	52	33	(13)	52	(11)
Can’t say	27	25	24	31	21	24	29
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	43	40	35	41	45	41
Disapprove	32	31	32	28	32	30	33
Approve - Disapprove	9	12	8	7	9	15	8
Can’t say	27	26	28	37	27	25	26
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

 

 

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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