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• A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (January 13/14, 2010) finds:

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd retains a substantial lead as preferred ALP Leader over Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Rudd is preferred as ALP Leader by 43% (down 3% since December 2/3,, 2009) of electors well ahead of Gillard (27%, up 2%). No other member of the ALP rates above 5%.

Amongst ALP voters Kevin Rudd is even more strongly preferred with 59% (down 7%) of ALP voters preferring Rudd as ALP Leader ahead of Julia Gillard (29%, up 6%). Of other contenders, only Wayne Swan (4%, up 1%) has more than 3% support.

Interestingly, there is a clear gender split emerging between men and women regarding the Leadership of the ALP with 52% of men preferring Prime Minister Kevin Rudd as ALP Leader, while 20% prefer Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard compared to an even split amongst women with 35% supporting Gillard for the Leadership of ALP, equal to the 35% who support Rudd.

For the first time more electors prefer Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (30%, up 4%) as Liberal Leader, now ahead of Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (28%, down 3%) and well ahead of former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (16%, down 3%) and Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (6%, down 3%).

Liberal Party voters far more strongly support Tony Abbott (49%, up 7%) ahead of both Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (24%, down 5%) and former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (13%, down 1%) as preferred Coalition Leader. Abbott is also well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (4%, down 3%).

If Prime Minister Rudd were to resign for any reason, Deputy PM Julia Gillard is clearly preferred as ALP Leader (51%, up 2%). Wayne Swan (12%, unchanged) is the next best preferred leader of the ALP, ahead of Stephen Smith (6%, unchanged), Lindsay Tanner (5%, down 1%) and Jenny Macklin (5%, up 2%) and Bill Shorten (3%, down 1%). Gillard’s support is even stronger among ALP voters (67%, up 5%).

If Mr Abbott were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Hockey (40%, down 1%) is clearly preferred as the Liberal to replace him ahead of former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (22%, down 2%) and Julie Bishop (12%, down 2%).

Overall, Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as Australia’s Prime Minister: 61% (up 1% since December 2/3, 2009) of electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than Mr Abbott (25%, unchanged) while 14% (down 1%) can’t say or chose someone else. The full results of this Special Better Prime Minister Morgan Poll are available here.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Morgan Poll survey of the electorate’s preferred leaders clearly shows Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (43%, down 3%) as preferred ALP Leader ahead of his deputy Julia Gillard (27%, up 2%). However, Rudd’s support amongst women has now fallen to 35% - the same as Deputy Prime Minister Gillard.

“New Liberal Party Leader Tony Abbott (30%, up 4%) is now favoured over Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (28%, down 3%) for the first time as Liberal Party Leader. Amongst Liberal Party voters Abbott’s support (49%, up 7%) is strongest, well ahead of potential challengers Joe Hockey (24%, down 5%) or Malcolm Turnbull (13%, down 1%).”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of January 13/14, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 541 electors.

Latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, conducted over the last two nights of January 13/14, 2010 shows the ALP (54.5%, up 1.5% on the telephone Morgan Poll conducted on December 4-9, 2009) ahead of the L-NP (45.5%, down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However in analysing this telephone poll result, it is worth noting that telephone polls have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events.

Preferred Labor Leader

Respondents were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	60	50	52.5	51	46	43	59	31	30	37	41	25
Gillard	19	20	23	22	25	27	29	23	18	40	22	24
Swan	3	3	3	4	4	5	4	5	7	2	23	6
Tanner	3	5.5	4	4	4	4	1	8	22	5	0	0
Macklin	2	1	3	2	1	3	3	3	11	2	0	6
Smith	3	5.5	3.5	5	3	3	2	6	0	4	0	8
Shorten	1	4	0.5	2	3	2	1	3	0	0	0	7
Someone else	1	0.5	0.5	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	0	6
Can’t say	8	10.5	10	10	13	12	1	19	12	8	14	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	60	50	52.5	51	46	43	52	35	55	50	45	37
Gillard	19	20	23	22	25	27	20	35	22	27	31	26
Swan	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	4	3	5	3	5
Tanner	3	5.5	4	4	4	4	5	3	1	1	5	5
Macklin	2	1	3	2	1	3	1	5	5	4	1	4
Smith	3	5.5	3.5	5	3	3	4	2	0	0	3	5
Shorten	1	4	0.5	2	3	2	3	2	0	3	2	2
Someone else	1	0.5	0.5	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	1	2
Can’t say	8	10.5	10	10	13	12	9	12	13	10	9	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Less than 0.5%

Preferred Labor Leader other than Kevin Rudd

Respondents who preferred Kevin Rudd as ALP Leader were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Julia Gillard,Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin, Lindsay Tanner?”

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Kevin Rudd.

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	50	45	51.5	52	49	51	67	36	42	59	35	33
Swan	13	11	9.5	10	12	12	12	13	7	7	36	10
Smith	6	8	5.5	7	6	6	5	8	0	8	0	12
Macklin	4	2	4	4	3	5	4	6	11	7	13	6
Tanner	6	8.5	8.5	5	6	5	3	9	28	5	0	4
Shorten	2	6.5	2.5	4	4	3	1	5	0	0	0	11
Someone else	1	0.5	1	0	2	1	1	2	0	2	0	6
Can’t say	18	18.5	17.5	18	18	17	7	21	12	12	16	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	50	45	51.5	52	49	51	45	58	49	58	54	47
Swan	13	11	9.5	10	12	12	15	8	13	13	14	9
Smith	6	8	5.5	7	6	6	9	3	4	4	5	7
Macklin	4	2	4	4	3	5	3	8	7	5	4	6
Tanner	6	8.5	8.5	5	6	5	8	3	3	1	6	7
Shorten	2	6.5	2.5	4	4	3	4	2	0	3	3	4
Someone else	1	0.5	1	0	2	1	1	2	2	0	2	2
Can’t say	18	18.5	17.5	18	18	17	15	16	22	16	12	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Preferred Coalition Leader

Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Abbott	6	5.5	16	17	26	30	18	49	40	21	35	30
Hockey	12	16	25	30	31	28	33	24	32	24	23	19
Turnbull	28	20.5	21.5	21	19	16	19	13	18	17	30	17
Bishop	7	6	11.5	9	9	6	7	4	0	14	12	7
Pyne	na	na	3	2	1	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
Robb	*	1	3.5	4	1	2	3	1	0	2	0	7
Costello^	28	35.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson^	7	4	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	*	0.5	1.5	1	1	2	1	2	5	2	0	3
Can’t say	12	11	18	16	12	14	17	7	5	16	0	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both left Parliament.

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Abbott	6	5.5	16	17	26	30	32	28	25	24	33	31
Hockey	12	16	25	30	31	28	30	27	25	29	31	27
Turnbull	28	20.5	21.5	21	19	16	19	13	12	18	13	18
Bishop	7	6	11.5	9	9	6	3	10	14	6	7	4
Pyne	na	na	3	2	1	2	2	1	3	2	1	1
Robb	*	1	3.5	4	1	2	2	2	0	1	2	2
Costello^	28	35.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson^	7	4	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	*	0.5	1.5	1	1	2	1	3	0	1	2	3
Can’t say	12	11	18	16	12	14	11	17	20	18	10	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both left Parliament.

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Respondents who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb & Christopher Pyne?”

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Abbott	7	8	22.5	20	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Hockey	18	20	34	37	41	40	41	44	49	29	22	22
Turnbull*	na	na	na	na	24	22	23	22	18	27	43	31
Bishop	11	8	13.5	14	14	12	9	14	12	19	13	7
Robb	2	2.5	4.5	5	3	3	3	3	4	4	0	10
Pyne	na	na	3.5	3	2	3	2	2	0	4	21	9
Costello^	37	40.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson^	10	6.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	1	0.5	1.5	1	1	2	1	3	5	2	0	3
Can’t say	14	14	20.5	20	15	18	21	12	12	15	1	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; na = not applicable;

*Between September 2008 and December 2009 Malcolm Turnbull was not included in this question as he was the then Opposition Leader.

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both left Parliament.

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader				Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Abbott	7	8	22.5	20	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Hockey	18	20	34	37	41	40	41	38	34	37	43	39
Turnbull*	na	na	na	na	24	22	26	19	19	21	21	24
Bishop	11	8	13.5	14	14	12	9	15	18	13	12	10
Robb	2	2.5	4.5	5	3	3	4	2	0	2	3	4
Pyne	na	na	3.5	3	2	3	4	1	5	4	2	2
Costello^	37	40.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson^	10	6.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Someone else	1	0.5	1.5	1	1	2	1	3	0	1	2	4
Can’t say	14	14	20.5	20	15	18	15	22	24	22	17	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Between September 2008 and December 2009 Malcolm Turnbull was not included in this question as he was the then Opposition Leader.

^ Peter Costello and Brendan Nelson have both left Parliament.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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