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Opinion on the Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme varies significantly between the two major parties. While 46% (down 4% since November 11/12, 2009) of Australians aged 14+ approve of this legislation and 36% (up 5%) disapprove of this legislation, the research conducted by Roy Morgan Research shows a wide range of views on the complex issue of Carbon Emissions Trading.

When told “In December the Government's carbon emissions trading scheme was defeated in Parliament. The Rudd Government has pledged to reintroduce the legislation, known as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, to Federal Parliament in February 2010. Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?” And asked “Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?” clear majorities of ALP (66%, up 1% since November 11/12, 2009) and Greens (55%, up 3%) supporters approve of the Government’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme; while an increasing 62% (up 17%) of L-NP supporters disapprove of the legislation.

Gary Morgan says:

“L-NP supporters (62%, up 17% since November 11/12, 2009) increasingly disapprove of the Rudd Government’s proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) — set to be reintroduced to Federal Parliament next month.

“This contrasts sharply with ALP supporters (66%, up 1%) and Greens supporters (55%, up 3%) who strongly support the legislation despite the failure to reach an international agreement in Copenhagen in December.

“Views on Global warming itself are also solidifying along party lines with 51% (up 5%) of L-NP supporters saying that ‘Concerns are exaggerated’ compared to only 22% (up 4%) of ALP supporters and 13% (up 2%) of Greens supporters.”

These are the main insights from the special telephone Roy Morgan survey conducted on the evenings of January 13/14, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 659 men and women aged 14 or over.

Respondents were asked the series of questions about Global Warming and the proposed Australian response to address the issue of Climate Change with a ‘carbon emissions trading scheme.’

Latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, conducted over the last two nights of January 13/14, 2010 shows the ALP (54.5%, up 1.5% on the telephone Morgan Poll conducted on December 4-9, 2009) ahead of the L-NP (45.5%, down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However in analysing this telephone poll result, it is worth noting that telephone polls have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events.

Views about Global Warming

Respondents were asked: “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming? Do you think: Concerns are exaggerated; if we don’t act now it will be too late; it is already too late?”

When asked “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming,” a majority, 63% (down 1% since November 11/12, 2009), of ALP supporters say “If we don’t act now it will be too late,” compared to 64% (down 2%) of Greens supporters and just 39% (up 1%) of L-NP supporters.

A larger amount of L-NP supporters (51%, up 5%) say “Concerns are exaggerated” compared to 22 % (up 4%) of ALP supporters and only 13% (up 2%) of Greens supporters while 12% (down 4%) of ALP supporters, 7% (down 3%) of L-NP supporters and a fifth of Greens supporters, 19% (down 2%) say “It is already too late.”

	Total all people aged 14+			Analysis by Voting Preference
	Aug 5/6, 2009	Nov 11/12, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat#	Green#	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Concerns are exaggerated	27	30	31	22	51	50	59	13	49	39	29
If we don’t act now  it will be too late	58	52	54	63	39	40	24	64	37	47	50
It is already too late	11	14	12	12	7	7	10	19	14	11	19
Can’t say	4	4	3	3	3	3	7	4	0	3	2
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Views about Australia’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme

Respondents were then asked: “In December the Government's carbon emissions trading scheme was defeated in Parliament. The Rudd Government has pledged to reintroduce the legislation, known as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, to Federal Parliament in February 2010. Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?”

There is a clear split between left and right on the proposed legislation with a clear majority of ALP supporters (66%, up 1% since November 11/12, 2009) approving of the legislation, and a majority of Greens supporters (55%, up 3%).

In contrast — a reversal since Novmeber 11/12, 2009, more Liberal supporters now disapprove of the proposed legislation with 63% (up 17%) disapproving of the legislation compared to 22% (down 15%) who approve of the legislation.

	Total all people aged 14+			Analysis by Voting Preference
	Aug 5/6, 2009	Nov 11/12, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat#	Green#	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	55	50	46	66	22	22	19	55	61	35	38
Disapprove	24	31	36	19	62	63	60	28	39	50	29
Don’t Understand	14	11	14	13	12	12	11	9	0	8	25
Can’t say	7	8	4	2	4	3	10	8	0	7	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

legislation were then asked: “Why especially do you say that?”

		Total all people aged 14+
		Aug 5/6, 2009			Nov 11/12, 2009			Jan 13/14, 2010
		%			%			%
Costs too much		3			6			8
I’m not convinced by the arguments; Need more proof; More research needs to be done		1			0.5			4.5
Australia should wait for the World to act		3			3.5			4
Don’t believe in Global Warming		2.5			6			3.5
Its another tax/ revenue raising exercise		0.5			1			3
The legislation is wrong/ not good/ needs a rethink; There are better methods		1			0.5			3
Australia can’t make a difference anyway		1.5			4			2
Doesn’t go far enough		2.5			2			2
Its exaggerated/ Scaremongering		1			*			2
The public doesn’t have enough info		1			1.5			1.5
Unfair distribution of carbon credits; Too much leeway; Special consideration given to certain companies		1			0.5			1.5
Additional taxes; No economic assistance for farmers		0.5			*			1.5
Doesn’t stop pollution/ carbon emissions		3			3.5			1
Carbon emissions are not responsible for Global Warming		2			1.5			1
Not fair		1.5			1			1
Job losses; The jobs lost won’t be replaced		1			0.5			1
We’re rushing into it; Not prepared for it		1			0.5			1
They’re only doing it for political reasons		0.5			0.5			1
Global Warming is not a problem/ Isn’t bad for Australia		1.5			1			0.5
The ETS won’t stop/ won’t make a difference on Global Warming		*			0.5			0.5
I am suspicious of them/ They cover things up		0.5			^			0.5
There are more important issues for Australia		*			^			0.5
Its bad for the Australian economy		*			0.5			*
Its too late		*			0.5			*
It does not benefit families/ average people		0.5			*			*
The opportunity for corruption/ union payoffs		0.5			^			^
Its bad for the environment/ Global Warming		0.5			^			^
Other		3			3.5			4
Can’t say		1.5			2			1.5
Total asked question (Disapprove of legislation)		24			31			36
Total not asked (Approve of legislation / Don’t understand legislation)		76			69			64
	Total		100			100			100

* Less than 0.5% of respondents mentioned this statement. ^ No respondents mentioned this statement.

Note: respondents to this question were able to nominate multiple responses.

The research conducted for these questions was both qualitative (in that people were asked to use their own words) and quantitative (in that the ‘open-ended’ responses were analysed and ‘coded’ so that the results could be counted and reported as percentages).

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

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