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Now only 46% (down 4% since November 11/12, 2009) of Australians approve of the Government’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme when asked “In December the Government's carbon emissions trading scheme was defeated in Parliament. The Rudd Government has pledged to reintroduce the legislation, known as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, to Federal Parliament in February 2010. Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?” according to a special telephone Roy Morgan survey conducted over the last two nights (January 13/14, 2010).

An increasing number of Australians, 36% (up 5%) of Australians disapprove of the proposed legislation; although 5% (up 3%) say ‘it doesn’t go far enough,’ 14% (up 3%) don’t understand the legislation and 4% (down 4%) can’t say.

Special analysis by age group shows 59% (down 12%) of 14-17 year olds favour the legislation compared to 55% (down 5%) of 18-24 year olds, 60% (up 7%) of 25-34 year olds, 50% (down 6%) of 35-49 year olds and just 34% (down 6%) of Australians 50+.

Australian views about Global Warming are slowly changing with 54% (up 2% since November 11/12, 2009, but down 4% since August 2009 and down 10% since November 2008) saying “If we don’t act now it will be too late” while now 31% (up 1% since November 11/12, 2009 and up 4% since August 2009) say “Concerns are exaggerated.’ A consistent minority (12%, down 2% since November 11/12, 2009, but up 1% since August 2009) of Australians say “It is already too late” while 3% (down 1%) can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“Australians are becoming increasingly sceptical about the Rudd Government’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme legislation (CPRS). For the first time support for the legislation, which the Rudd Government has pledged to reintroduce to Parliament in February,  has dropped below 50% — now at 46%, down 4% since November.

“Support for the legislation has dropped on each occasion Roy Morgan has asked this question — at the same time, an increasing number of Australians say their view of Global warming is that ‘Concerns are exaggerated’ — now 31% (up 1% since November). This is a small increase, but is substantially higher than when the question was first asked in April 2006 (13%).

This special telephone Roy Morgan survey was conducted on the evenings of January 13/14, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 659 men and women aged 14 or over.

Respondents were asked the series of questions about Global Warming and the proposed Australian response to address the issue of Climate Change with a ‘carbon emissions trading scheme.’

Latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, conducted over the last two nights of January 13/14, 2010 shows the ALP (54.5%, up 1.5% on the telephone Morgan Poll conducted on December 4-9, 2009) ahead of the L-NP (45.5%, down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However in analysing this telephone poll result, it is worth noting that telephone polls have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events.

Views about Global Warming

Respondents were asked: “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming?” Do you think: Concerns are exaggerated; if we don’t act now it will be too late; it is already too late?”

	Total all people aged 14+
	April 2006	Nov 2008	May 2009	Aug 2009	Nov 11/12, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Concerns are  exaggerated	13	19	26	27	30	31
If we don’t act now it will be too late	67	64	58	58	52	54
It is already too late	15	14	12	11	14	12
Can’t say	5	3	4	4	4	3
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Concerns are  exaggerated	31	37	26	22	27	31	22	41
If we don’t act now it will be too late	54	48	60	62	55	55	65	44
It is already too late	12	13	11	13	15	12	12	11
Can’t say	3	2	3	3	3	2	1	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	Jan 13/14, 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Concerns are exaggerated	31	28	37	35	31	30	19	31	39
If we don’t act now it will be too late	54	58	46	48	56	53	65	57	54
It is already too late	12	11	14	13	11	14	13	12	7
Can’t say	3	3	3	4	2	3	3	0	0
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Views about Australia’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme

Respondents were then asked: “In December the Government's carbon emissions trading scheme was defeated in Parliament. The Rudd Government has pledged to reintroduce the legislation, known as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, to Federal Parliament in February 2010. Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?”

	Total all people aged 14+			Analysis by Sex and Age
	Aug 5/6, 2009	Nov 11/12, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	55	50	46	44	49	59	55	60	50	34
Disapprove	24	31	36	43	29	16	31	26	34	46
Don’t Understand	14	11	14	11	16	19	10	12	13	15
Can’t say	7	8	4	2	6	6	4	2	3	5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+			Analysis by States & Regions
	Aug 5/6, 2009	Nov 11/12, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	55	50	46	52	38	45	46	46	49	49	37
Disapprove	24	31	36	30	45	37	36	39	29	34	27
Don’t Understand	14	11	14	14	14	14	15	11	15	12	36
Can’t say	7	8	4	4	3	4	3	4	7	5	0
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Respondents who disapproved of the legislation were then asked: “Why especially do you say that?”

		Total all people aged 14+
		Aug 5/6, 2009			Nov 11/12, 2009			Jan 13/14, 2010
		%			%			%
Costs too much		3			6			8
I’m not convinced by the arguments; Need more proof; More research needs to be done		1			0.5			4.5
Australia should wait for the World to act		3			3.5			4
Don’t believe in Global Warming		2.5			6			3.5
Its another tax/ revenue raising exercise		0.5			1			3
The legislation is wrong/ not good/ needs a rethink; There are better methods		1			0.5			3
Australia can’t make a difference anyway		1.5			4			2
Doesn’t go far enough		2.5			2			2
Its exaggerated/ Scaremongering		1			*			2
The public doesn’t have enough info		1			1.5			1.5
Unfair distribution of carbon credits; Too much leeway; Special consideration given to certain companies		1			0.5			1.5
Additional taxes; No economic assistance for farmers		0.5			*			1.5
Doesn’t stop pollution/ carbon emissions		3			3.5			1
Carbon emissions are not responsible for Global Warming		2			1.5			1
Not fair		1.5			1			1
Job losses; The jobs lost won’t be replaced		1			0.5			1
We’re rushing into it; Not prepared for it		1			0.5			1
They’re only doing it for political reasons		0.5			0.5			1
Global Warming is not a problem/ Isn’t bad for Australia		1.5			1			0.5
The ETS won’t stop/ won’t make a difference on Global Warming		*			0.5			0.5
I am suspicious of them/ They cover things up		0.5			^			0.5
There are more important issues for Australia		*			^			0.5
Its bad for the Australian economy		*			0.5			*
Its too late		*			0.5			*
It does not benefit families/ average people		0.5			*			*
The opportunity for corruption/ union payoffs		0.5			^			^
Its bad for the environment/ Global Warming		0.5			^			^
Other		3			3.5			4
Can’t say		1.5			2			1.5
Total asked question (Disapprove of legislation)		24			31			36
Total not asked (Approve of legislation / Don’t understand legislation)		76			69			64
	Total		100			100			100

* Less than 0.5% of respondents mentioned this statement. ^ No respondents mentioned this statement.

Note: respondents to this question were able to nominate multiple responses.

The research conducted for these questions was both qualitative (in that people were asked to use their own words) and quantitative (in that the ‘open-ended’ responses were analysed and ‘coded’ so that the results could be counted and reported as percentages).

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

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