NZ National-led Government (58%) retains strong lead over Opposition Parties (42%)
| Finding No. 4462 -
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,758 electors from January 4-17, 2010. Of all electors surveyed, 3% (down 2%) did not name a party.:
January 21, 2010 |
In early January 2010 support for John Key’s National-led Government is virtually unchanged, up 0.5% to 58% comprising National Party 53% (down 1%), Maori Party 2.5% (up 1%), ACT NZ 2% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.
Support for Opposition Parties is 42% (down 0.5%); Labour Party 30% (up 2.5%), Greens 8% (down 1.5%), NZ First 2.5% (down 1.5%), The Progressive Party 0.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 1% (down 0.5%).
If a National Election were held today the National Party would still win easily.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 147.5 (up 11 points) with 68.5% (up 6%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 21% (down 5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
Gary Morgan says:
“The New Year sees Prime Minister John Key’s National-led Government (58%, up 0.5%) retaining its strong lead over the Opposition Parties (42%, down 0.5%).
“Looking back to the same time last year shows that Key has increased the National share of the vote since January 2-18, 2009 to 53% (up 5% on a year ago), partly at the expense of the main Opposition Labour Party (30%, down 3%).
“The New Zealand economy emerged from recession during 2009, after five quarters of negative growth, which strengthens Key’s claim to economic leadership and leaves the Labour Opposition unable to regain any momentum amongst the New Zealand electorate more than a year after its 2008 election defeat.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,758 electors from January 4-17, 2010. Of all electors surveyed, 3% (down 2%) did not name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
National |
Labour |
Green
Party |
ACT NZ |
Maori
Party* |
United
Future |
NZ First |
Progressive Party |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
20.9 |
41.3 |
7 |
7.1 |
n/a |
6.7 |
10.4 |
1.7 |
4.9 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
39.1 |
41.1 |
5.3 |
1.51 |
2.12 |
2.67 |
5.72 |
1.16 |
1.32 |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
44.93 |
33.99 |
6.72 |
3.65 |
2.39 |
0.87 |
4.07 |
0.91 |
2.47 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
44 |
32.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
47 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
48 |
33 |
8 |
3 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
48 |
31 |
9 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
48.5 |
32 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
2 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
56 |
26 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
54.5 |
29 |
8 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
50.5 |
28 |
9.5 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
^ |
1 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
50 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
^ |
0.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
55 |
30.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
52 |
31.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
52 |
31 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
52 |
33 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
54 |
31.5 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
52 |
30 |
10 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
^ |
1 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
53.5 |
34 |
7 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
^ |
^ |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
53.5 |
32.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
2 |
0.5 |
2 |
^ |
^ |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
56.5 |
29.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
51.5 |
33.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
0.5 |
^ |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
57.5 |
28 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
2 |
^ |
1 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
53 |
30 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
55.5 |
29 |
7.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
51.5 |
33 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
^ |
1 |
|
November 16-29, 2009 |
53.5 |
30.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
|
November 30 - December 13, 2009 |
54 |
27.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
^ |
1.5 |
|
January 4-17, 2010 |
53 |
30 |
8 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v All Opposition Parties
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 8, 2008 General Election:
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
National Party-led
Government* |
Opposition
Parties# |
| |
% |
% |
|
General Election, November 8, 2008 |
51.84 |
48.16 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
November 17-30, 2008 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 1-14, 2008 |
54 |
46 |
|
January 2-18, 2009 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
January 19 - February 1, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
|
February 2-15, 2009 |
55 |
45 |
|
February 16 - March 1, 2009 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 2-15, 2009 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
March 23 - April 5, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
April 6-19, 2009 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 20 - May 3, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
May 4-17, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
May 18-31, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 1-14, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 22 - July 5, 2009 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
July 6-19, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
July 20 - August 2, 2009 |
58 |
42 |
|
August 3-16, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 17-30, 2009 |
60 |
40 |
|
August 31 - September 13, 2009 |
56 |
44 |
|
September 21 - October 4, 2009 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
October 5-18, 2009 |
59 |
41 |
|
October 19 - November 1, 2009 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
November 2-15, 2009 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 16-29, 2009 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
November 30 - December 13, 2009 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
January 4-17, 2010 |
58 |
42 |
*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Progressive Party, NZ First, Other
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Nov 3-16,
2008 |
Nov 17-30,
2008 |
Dec 1-14,
2008 |
Jan 2-18,
2009 |
Jan 19-Feb 1,
2009 |
Feb 2-15,
2009 |
Feb 16-Mar 1,
2009 |
Mar 2-15,
2009 |
Mar 23-Apr 5,
2009 |
Apr 6-19,
2009 |
Apr 20-May 3,
2009 |
May 4-17,
2009 |
May 18-31,
2009 |
June 1-14,
2009 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54 |
66 |
63 |
67 |
65 |
63.5 |
69 |
67.5 |
65 |
68.5 |
66.5 |
67.5 |
65.5 |
69 |
|
Wrong direction |
31 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
20 |
22 |
17 |
20 |
19.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
123 |
147 |
143 |
148 |
145 |
143 |
150.5 |
147.5 |
143 |
151.5 |
146.5 |
148 |
145.5 |
150.5 |
|
Can’t say |
15 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
13 |
14.5 |
13.5 |
13 |
14.5 |
12.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
June 22-July 5,
2009 |
July 6-19,
2009 |
July 20-Aug 2,
2009 |
Aug 3-16,
2009 |
Aug 17-30,
2009 |
Aug 31-Sep 13,
2009 |
Sep 21-Oct 4,
2009 |
Oct 5-18,
2009 |
Oct 19-Nov 1,
2009 |
Nov 2-15,
2009 |
Nov 16-29,
2009 |
Nov 30-Dec 13,
2009 |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
63 |
66.5 |
66 |
66.5 |
65.5 |
67.5 |
72 |
67.5 |
66.5 |
64.5 |
66 |
62.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
23 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
21.5 |
22 |
24.5 |
16.5 |
21.5 |
20.5 |
22.5 |
22 |
25 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
140 |
146 |
147.5 |
145 |
143.5 |
143 |
155.5 |
146 |
146 |
142 |
144 |
137.5 |
|
Can’t say |
14 |
13 |
15.5 |
12 |
12.5 |
8 |
11.5 |
11 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates |
|
|
Jan 4-17,
2010 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
68.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
147.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
10.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
Finding No. 4462 is taken from Computer Report No. 2300
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4462 is taken from Computer Report No. 2300
|
