ALP strengthens lead after Summer holidays
ALP 58.5% (up 1.5%) to L-NP 41.5% (down 1.5%)
| Finding No. 4463 -
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,819 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.:
January 21, 2010 |
The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over two weekends, January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 shows the ALP (58.5%, up 1.5%% since the last face-to-face poll conducted on December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010) maintaining a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (41.5%, down 1.5%).
The ALP primary vote rose 2% to 47.5%, and remains clearly ahead of the L-NP (35.5%, down 1.5%), while looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens rising (10%, unchanged), Family First (2%, unchanged) and Independents/ Others (5.0%, down 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 136.5 (up 4pts) with 59.5% (up 1%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 23% (down 3%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for January 16/17, 2010 is 130.0, up 1.1pts from the last Consumer Confidence rating conducted on January 9/10, 2010, and up 2.2pts over the period of interviewing for this poll.
Gary Morgan says:
“The Rudd Government (58.5%, up 1.5%) has strengthened its Two-Party preferred lead over the Tony Abbott-led Opposition (41.5%, down 1.5%) as Australians return to work after their Summer holidays.
“The increased lead for the ALP is matched by rising Consumer Confidence — now at 130.0 (already up 9.6pts in 2010) and at its highest for nearly five years, since February 2005 (132.0).
“Incumbent Governments usually gain support as Consumer Confidence rises, and today’s Morgan Poll shows the Rudd Government is also benefiting from an increasingly confident Australian population.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,819 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
During the polling period:
- 100,000 feared dead after devastating Haiti earthquake
Bodies are being piled up on the streets of Haiti's capital Port-au-Prince as the country's Prime Minister estimates 100,000 people might have died in yesterday's earthquake.
- Frantic search for Haiti earthquake survivors
Darkness has fallen in Haiti, where panic-stricken locals are using their hands to dig through the rubble in a search for loved ones after their country was devastated by a massive 7.0-magnitude earthquake.
- Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard angered by Ku Klux Klan cartoon
Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard has reacted angrily to a cartoon published in India that depicts a Victorian police officer in a Ku Klux Klan outfit.
- Holiday rain a godsend for many
Recent rainfall was a long-awaited gift to many rural communities across Australia and a recent survey revealed that water and the lack of it, is the number one national concern.
- Falcon could go, Ford global boss Alan Mulally warns
The future of the all-Australian Ford Falcon is in doubt after the company's Chief Executive Officer Alan Mullaly outlined the carmaker's plans on the eve of the Detroit motor show.
- Simon Crean defends Gillard on whaling tough talk
The Federal Government says Australia has received "strong" responses from Japan over whaling clashes in the Southern Ocean.
- A cap on executive pay 'not practical'
The Productivity Commission has called for greater transparency in the formulation of executive pay packages, but has stopped short of recommending a cap on salaries.
- Plane bomb suspect 'joined Al Qaeda in London'
A Nigerian man accused in the attempted bombing of a Detroit bound plane on Christmas Day was recruited by Al Qaeda in London and met a radical American Muslim cleric in Yemen, a top Yemeni official said.
- President Barack Obama to recover 'every single dime' from bailout
US President Barack Obama has proposed a fee on major banking firms to recover "every single dime" taxpayers shelled out to rescue Wall Street from the economic crisis.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First#* |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
0 |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
0 |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
0 |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32 (2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008(Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5 (3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53 |
34 (3) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
31.5 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
45.5 |
38.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48 |
34.5 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37.5 (4) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50 |
37 (3) |
6.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
| |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
| |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
36.5 (3.5) |
10 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
36 (2) |
9.5 |
3 |
5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46 |
36 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
48 |
38 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
37.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
35.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
34.5 (2.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
35.5 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (4) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
36 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38 (4) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
39 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 (3) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
34 (2) |
9 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
37.5 (1.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
45 |
40.5 (4) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
43.5 |
39.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38 (3) |
7 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 (3.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
46 |
39 (2.5) |
8 |
1 |
6 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
35 (3) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
37.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
45.5 |
37.5 (3) |
11 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
34.5 (3) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
32.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
35.5 (2.5) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
46.5 |
37 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34.5 (3) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
32.5 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
42.5 |
41.5 (4) |
8 |
1 |
7 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
45 |
36.5 (4) |
9 |
3 |
6.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
35.5 (2) |
9 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47 |
35 (3.5) |
9.5 |
3 |
5.5 |
| |
|
Tony Abbott replace Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
| |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
41 |
43 (3.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
42 |
41.5 (2) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
35.5 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
37 (2.5) |
10 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
43 |
39 (3) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
10 |
2 |
5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59 |
41 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
34.5 |
65 |
35 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
64 |
36 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
64 |
36 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63 |
37 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
45.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
60 |
40 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59 |
41 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
62 |
38 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60 |
40 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
56 |
44 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of the Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59 |
41 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
** Phone Poll
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
|
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
75 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
68 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
20.5 |
16 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
21 |
13.5 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
21 |
14.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
23.5 |
15 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
24 |
15 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
24.5 |
16 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
23 |
15 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
23.5 |
16 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
26.5 |
16 |
|
|
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
|
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
29.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
29 |
17 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
52 |
29 |
19 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58.5 |
22.5 |
19 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
29 |
13.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
25.5 |
16 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
26 |
14.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
22.5 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23 |
12 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
26.5 |
15 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63 |
24 |
13 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
19.5 |
14.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
64 |
24 |
12 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
20.5 |
14.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
68.5 |
18.5 |
13 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
22 |
12.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
24 |
10.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
25.5 |
12.5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
22.5 |
11 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
18 |
13 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
24 |
12.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26.5 |
12.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
15.5 |
13 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
18 |
12.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
16 |
13 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
76.5 |
12.5 |
11 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
74.5 |
16 |
9.5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
73 |
18 |
9 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
17.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18.5 |
11 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
72.5 |
15 |
12.5 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19 |
12 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
72 |
19 |
9 |
|
|
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
|
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
78 |
13 |
9 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
20.5 |
13 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
73.5 |
15.5 |
11 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull) |
| |
Feb
7/8 |
Feb
14/15 |
Feb 21/22
& 28/ Mar 1 |
Mar
7/8 |
Mar
14/15 |
Mar 21/22
& 28/29 |
Apr 4/5
& 11/12 |
Apr 18/19
& 25/26 |
May 2/3
& 9/10 |
May
16/17 |
May
20/21 |
May 23/24
& 30/31 |
June
3/4 |
June
10/11 |
June 6/7
& 13/14 |
June
20/21 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54.5 |
54 |
53.5 |
50.5 |
50.5 |
53.5 |
56.5 |
53 |
51.5 |
49 |
52 |
54.5 |
55 |
58.5 |
57 |
58.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
26 |
28.5 |
31 |
29.5 |
28.5 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
30.5 |
27.5 |
28.5 |
29.5 |
27.5 |
26 |
24 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
126 |
128 |
125 |
119.5 |
121 |
125 |
130.5 |
125 |
121.5 |
118.5 |
124.5 |
126 |
125.5 |
131 |
131 |
134.5 |
|
Can’t say |
17 |
20 |
18 |
18.5 |
20 |
18 |
17.5 |
19 |
18.5 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
17 |
15.5 |
14 |
17 |
17.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull) |
| |
July
1/2 |
June 27/28
& July 4/5 |
July 11/12
& 18/19 |
July 25/26
& Aug 1/2 |
Aug
5/6 |
Aug 8/9
& 15/16 |
Aug 22/23
& 29/30 |
Sep 5/6
& 12/13 |
Sep 19/20
& 26/27 |
Oct
7/8 |
Oct 3/4
& 10/11 |
Oct 17/18
& 24/25 |
Oct 31
& Nov 1 |
Nov
7/8 |
Nov
11/12 |
Nov
14/15 |
Nov
21/22 |
Nov
28/29 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
60 |
56.5 |
61 |
62.5 |
59 |
63 |
63 |
65 |
63.5 |
70 |
67 |
63 |
60 |
60 |
60.5 |
60 |
59.5 |
57.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
27.5 |
28 |
22.5 |
21 |
26 |
21.5 |
22.5 |
20.5 |
20 |
17.5 |
17 |
21.5 |
18.5 |
23.5 |
27 |
24 |
26 |
24 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
132.5 |
128.5 |
138.5 |
141.5 |
133 |
141.5 |
140.5 |
144.5 |
143.5 |
152.5 |
150 |
141.5 |
141.5 |
136.5 |
133.5 |
136 |
133.5 |
133.5 |
|
Can’t say |
12.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
16.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
15.5 |
21.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
14.5 |
18.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Dec
2/3 |
Dec
4-9 |
Dec 5/6
& 12/13 |
Dec 19/20
& Jan 2/3 |
Jan 13/14 |
Jan 9/10
& 16/17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
54 |
52.5 |
59.5 |
58.5 |
56.5 |
59.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
29.5 |
23 |
126 |
29 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
121 |
123 |
136.5 |
132.5 |
127.5 |
136.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
13 |
18 |
17.5 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
