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The latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted over last weekend, February 20/21, 2010 shows the ALP (56.5%, down 1% since the last Face-to-Face poll conducted on February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010) but maintaining a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (43.5%, up 1%).

Despite the drop in support if a Federal Election were held today the ALP would still win easily.

The ALP primary vote fell 2% to 45%, ahead of the L-NP (37.5%, up 0.5%), while looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens (9%, unchanged), Family First (2.5%, up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others (6%, up 1%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 132 (down 1.5pts) with 58.5% (up 1%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 26.5% (up 2.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

The weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for February 20/21, 2010 is at 124.7, (up 0.1 point) from the last Consumer Confidence Rating conducted on February 13/14, 2010.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Morgan Poll conducted last weekend shows a slight tightening between the Rudd Government (56.5%, down 1%) and the L-NP Opposition (43.5%, up 1%).

“Dominating much of the news over the past two weeks has been Environment Minister Peter Garret’s conduct of the home insulation rebate scheme. Opposition calls for Garrett to resign for mismanaging the scheme have so far fallen on deaf ears and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has now taken full responsibility for the scheme himself.

“Today’s Morgan Poll suggests that the electorate are not impressed with the Government’s handling of the issue as the ALP’s primary vote has fallen 2% to 45% - its lowest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll result since mid-November 2009.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of February 20/21, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 940 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5 % (up 1%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

During the polling period: 

• Environment Minister Peter Garrett suspends insulation company
  Federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett says Queensland company Countrywide has been suspended amid concerns about its accreditation to operate under the Government's insulation scheme
• Garrett scraps insulation scheme
  Federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett is scrapping the Government's troubled $2.5 billion home insulation program and the solar hot water program after reports emerged of warnings not acted upon and also including the deaths of installers and hundreds of house fires of varying severity.
• Peter Garrett under fire over dodgy solar installations
  As Environment Minister Peter Garrett grapples to control his home insulation program, there are now concerns about the potential for house fires because of badly-installed solar panels.
• Date set for Mary MacKillop's Sainthood
  Mary MacKillop, a nun revered for her work with needy children as much as for her rebellious streak, is to become Australia's first Roman Catholic Saint on October 17, Pope Benedict XVI said.
• World No. 1 Golfer Tiger Woods sorry for 'selfish behaviour'
  An emotional Tiger Woods has publicly apologised for his "irresponsible and selfish behaviour," as the golf superstar broke his silence on the sex scandal that engulfed him last year. So far 19 women have stepped forward and admitted sexual liaison with Woods over recent years — and it is not clear whether there are other women out there that have not come forward. Woods is currently estranged from partner Elin Nordegren.
• Five Sydney men jailed over terrorism plot Five Sydney men convicted of terrorism-related offences have been sentenced to maximum sentences ranging from 23 to 28 years in prison.
• Toyota forced to recall 8,000 four-wheel-drives
  Toyota will recall 8,000 pickups due to possible cracks in a common drive shaft component that Ford and Nissan say poses no safety risk to their vehicles.

• 'Goodbye forever' as Pauline Hanson set to move to the United Kingdom
  Former One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson, who made her political name railing against immigrants, says she is emigrating to Britain because there are no more opportunities for her in Australia. Hanson’s announcement of her plans attracted immediate support from British National Party Leader Nick Griffin.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Note: National Party results are in brackets.

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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