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A Victorian State Election would be close if held now. Liberal Party and National Party support is 50.5% just leading the ALP (49.5%) on a 2-party preferred basis, a special telephone Morgan Poll taken over the last 2 weeks finds.

Despite a high disapproval rating (47.5%) for Premier Brumby's handling of his job as Premier of Victoria, Brumby is still the "Preferred Premier" of a majority of Victorians (50.5%) well ahead of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu (30.5%).

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted February 17 - 28, 2010 nine months ahead of this year’s Victorian State Election — due to be held on November 27, 2010.

If the Victorian State Election had been held now the result would have been too close to call.

Primary support for the ALP was 37.5% (down 5.6% since the 2006 Victorian State Election), Liberal Party 42% (up 7.6%) and National Party 2.5% (down 2.7%), The Greens 11.5% (up 1.5%), Family First 1% (down 3.3%) and Independents/Other 5.5% (up 2.5%).

Think will win the Victorian State Election

Most Victorian electors (59.5%) think the ALP will win this year’s Victorian State Election to be held in November compared to only 25.5% that think the Liberal & National Parties will win, while 15% can’t say.

A large majority of ALP voters (78.5%) expect the ALP to win the election compared to 12.5% who expect the Liberal & National Parties to win.

Opinion amongst Liberal & National Party supporters is much closer though with 45.5% expecting the ALP to win the Victorian State Election compared to 38% that think the Liberal & National Parties will win.

Would like to win the Victorian State Election

Victorians are evenly split on who they would like to win the Victorian State Election in November with 41.5% saying they would like the ALP to win equal to the 41.5% who say they would like the Liberal & National Parties to win, while 17% can’t say.

Voters are clearly split along party lines with 88.5% of ALP supporters saying they would like the ALP to win the Victorian State Election compared to 2.5% preferring the Liberal & National Parties while 88% of Liberal & National Party supporters say they would like the Liberal & National Parties to win compared to only 4.5% that would prefer the ALP to win.

Better Victorian Premier (John Brumby v Ted Baillieu)

The special Morgan Poll finds that John Brumby (50.5%) is clearly preferred as the “Better Premier of Victoria” by the Victorian electorate ahead of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu (30.5%) while 19% can’t say.

Job Approval (John Brumby v Ted Baillieu)

The Morgan Poll also finds that although voters prefer John Brumby to Ted Baillieu as “Better Premier” they do not approve of the way he’s handling his job as Premier of Victoria with nearly half, 47% disapproving of Brumby’s handling of the job as Premier compared to only 37% that approve while 16% can’t say.

Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu is viewed slightly more positively with 40% of the Victorian electorate approving of his handling of the job of Opposition Leader compared to 36% that disapprove — but importantly nearly a quarter of the electorate (24%) are still undecided.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the past two weeks in late February on Victorian state voting intention finds for the first time more Victorians would vote for the Ted Baillieu led Liberal Party and National Party Opposition (50.5%) than the John Brumby-led ALP Victorian State Government (49.5%).

“With nine months before this year’s Victorian State Election 47% of Victorians disapprove of the way Premier John Brumby is handing his job as Victorian Premier compared to only 37% who approve. In comparison more Victorians (40%) approve of the way Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu is handling his job than disapprove (36%). Baillieu is still something of an unknown to many Victorians with a high 24% undecided.

“Despite  strong disapproval of John Brumby’s handling of the his job, a majority of Victorians (50.5%) say John Brumby would make the “Better Premier” of Victoria than Ted Baillieu (30.5%).

“This special Morgan Poll shows that the Victorian Election this year will be close.

“The Greens with 11.5% of the primary vote could with their preferences decide the outcome of many Victorian marginal seats.

“A Liberal-Green preference swap is more likely in Victorian State politics as many Green and Liberal voters agree on local issues involving parks, planning, the environment and stopping violence in the city. A Liberal Green preference swap could lead to the Greens winning the inner-Melbourne seats of Richmond and Melbourne and the Liberals with the Nationals winning Government.”

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll on Victorian voting intention conducted with 407 Victorian electors between February 17 — 28, 2010.

Primary Voting Intention

			Telephone Morgan Poll
	Victorian State Election Nov 30, 2002	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010
	%	%	%
ALP	47.9	43.1	37.5
Liberal & (National Party)	38.2 (4.3)	39.6 (5.2)	44.5 (2.5)
Greens	9.7	10.0	11.5
Family First	^	4.3	1
Independents/ Others	4.2	3	5.5
Total	100	100	100

^ The Family First was launched in August 2004.

Two-Party Preferred

			Telephone Morgan Poll
	Victorian State Election Nov 30, 2002	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010
	%	%	%
ALP	57.8	54.4	49.5
Liberal & National Parties	42.2	45.6	50.5
Total	100	100	100

Think will win the Victorian State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the Victorian State Election in November?”

	Victorian Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	City	Country	ALP	Liberal & National Parties	The Greens#	Others/ Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	59.5	60	58	78.5	45.5	59.5	71
Liberal & National Parties	25.5	23.5	30	12.5	38	21.5	25.5
Can't say	15	16.5	12	9	16.5	19	3.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Would like to win the Victorian State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you think will win, who would you like to win the Victorian State Election in November?”

	Victorian Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	City	Country	ALP	Liberal & National Parties	The Greens#	Others/ Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	41.5	42	40	88.5	4.5	59.5	26.5
Liberal & National Parties	41.5	40	45.5	2.5	88	10	38
Can't say	17	18	14.5	9	7.5	30.5	35.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Better Victorian Premier — John Brumby v Ted Baillieu

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mr. Brumby	50.5	67.5	29	30	56.5	0	48.5
Mr. Baillieu	30.5	13.5	58.5	63.5	25	100	45
Brumby lead	20	54	(29.5)	(33.5)	31.5	(100)	3.5
Other / Neither	19	19	12.5	6.5	18.5	0	6.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mr. Brumby	50.5	48	52	55.5	64.5	51	43
Mr. Baillieu	30.5	33.5	27.5	9.5	19.5	23	44
Brumby lead	20	14.5	24.5	46	45	28	(1)
Other / Neither	19	18.5	20.5	35	16	26	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Approval of Leaders — John Brumby v Ted Baillieu

Victorian Premier: John Brumby

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Brumby is handling his job as Victorian Premier?”

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	37	53.5	17	30	29	0	22
Disapprove	47	29.5	73	63.5	55.5	100	58.5
Approve - Disapprove	(10)	24	(56)	(33.5)	(26.5)	(100)	(36.5)
Can’t say	16	17	10	6.5	15.5	0	19.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	37	37	37	33	48.5	40.5	31.5
Disapprove	47	53.5	41	42.5	34.5	40.5	56.5
Approve - Disapprove	(10)	(16.5)	(4)	(9.5)	(14)	0	(25)
Can’t say	16	9.5	22	24.5	17	19	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Opposition Leader: Ted Baillieu

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Baillieu is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	40	34.5	58	42.5	31.5	83.5	32
Disapprove	36	43	20.5	37	51.5	16.5	41
Approve - Disapprove	4	(8.5)	38.5	5.5	(20)	67	(9)
Can’t say	24	22.5	21.5	20.5	17	0	27
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	40	42.5	37.5	25	34	43	44
Disapprove	36	37.5	35	32.5	34.5	33.5	39
Approve - Disapprove	4	5	2.5	(7.5)	(0.5)	9.5	5
Can’t say	24	20	27.5	42.5	31.5	23.5	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

For further information:

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Michele Levine:          Office (03) 9224 5215       Mobile 0411 129 093        Home (03) 9817 3066

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