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In New South Wales the Liberal Party and National Party support is 51.5% (up 3.8% since the 2007 NSW State Election) leading the ALP (48.5%, down 3.8% since the 2007 NSW State Election) on a Two-Party preferred basis, a special telephone Morgan Poll taken over the last 2 weeks finds.

Primary support for the ALP is 34.5% (down 4.5% since the 2007 New South Wales State Election), Liberal Party 41% (up 14.1%) and National Party 2% (down 8.1%), The Greens 11% (up 2%), and Independents/Other 11.5% (down 2.5%).

Ms. Keneally’s approval rating is 41% for handling her job as Premier of New South Wales while only 25.5% disapprove. Keneally is the "Preferred Premier" of New South Wales electors (40%) well ahead of Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell (30.5%).

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted February 17 - 28, 2010, a year ahead of next year’s New South Wales State Election — due to be held on March 26, 2011.

If the New South Wales State Election had been held this week the Liberal & National Parties would have been elected.

Think will win the New South Wales State Election

More New South Wales electors (47.5%) think the L-NP will win next year’s New South Wales State Election to be held in March compared to 34.5% that think the ALP will win, while 18% can’t say.

A large majority of ALP voters (59%) expect the ALP to win the New South Wales State Election compared to 26% who expect the Liberal & National Parties to win.

A stronger majority of Liberal & National Party supporters expect the L-NP (63.5%) to win the New South Wales State Election compared to 19.5% that think the ALP will win.

Would like to win the New South Wales State Election

More New South Wales electors (45%) say they would like to see the L-NP win the New South Wales State Election in March 2011 compared to 37% who say they would like the ALP to win, while 18% can’t say.

Voters are clearly split along party lines with 85.5% of ALP supporters saying they would like the ALP to win the State Election compared to 8.5% preferring the Liberal & National Parties while 90.5% of Liberal & National Party supporters say they would like the Liberal & National Parties to win compared to only 3.5% that would prefer the ALP to win.

Better New South Wales Premier (Kristina Keneally v Barry O’Farrell)

The special Morgan Poll finds that current New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally (40%) is clearly preferred as the “Better Premier of New South Wales” by the electorate ahead of Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell (30.5%) while 29.5% can’t say.

Job Approval (Kristina Keneally v Barry O’Farrell)

The Morgan Poll also finds that 41% approve of the way Premier Keneally is handling her job as Premier of New South Wales with 25.5% disapproving of how she is handling her job while a still large 33.5% can’t say.

Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell is viewed slightly less positively with 38.5% of the New South Wales electorate approving of his handling of the job of Opposition Leader compared to 28.5% that disapprove — nearly a third of the electorate (33%) are still undecided.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the past two weeks in late February on New South Wales state voting intention finds the L-NP Opposition (51.5%) with a strong chance of winning Government in New South Wales in March 2011 for the first time since John Fahey’s loss at the 1995 New South Wales State Election.

“Despite leading on a Two-Party preferred basis — L-NP (51.5%) cf. ALP (48.5%), new American-born New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally has a higher approval rating than counterpart Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell.

“More New South Wales electors say Kenneally (40%) is the “Better Premier of New South Wales” than O’Farrell (30.5%) — and Keneally’s job approval rating as Premier of New South Wales (41% cf. 25.5% disapproval) is also better than O’Farrell (38.5% job approval cf. 28.5% disapproval). However, it is important to note that a large proportion of NSW electors (33.5%, Keneally and 33%, O’Farrell) are yet to make up their minds about either leader.

“Although the Liberal-National Coalition is currently in the best position to regain Government in a year’s time, the reinvigorated ALP Government under new Premier Kristina Keneally is clearly making a renewed push to get back the credibility the State ALP Government has lost in recent years and push for what would be its fifth straight election victory.”

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll on New South Wales voting intention conducted with 521 New South Wales electors between February 17 — 28, 2010.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:               Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine:          Office (03) 9224 5215       Mobile 0411 129 093        Home (03) 9817 3066

Primary Voting Intention

			Telephone Morgan Poll
	New South Wales State Election March 22, 2003	New South Wales State Election March 24, 2007	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010
	%	%	%
ALP	42.7	39.0	34.5
Liberal & (National Party)	34.4 (9.6)	38.0 (10.1)	43 (2)
Greens	8.3	9.0	11
Independents/ Others	14.6	14.0	11.5
Total	100	100	100

Two-Party Preferred

			Telephone Morgan Poll
	New South Wales State Election March 22, 2003	New South Wales State Election March 24, 2007	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010
	%	%	%
ALP	56.2	52.3	48.5
Liberal & (National Party)	43.8	47.7	51.5
Total	100	100	100

Think will win the New South Wales State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the next New South Wales State Election?”

	New South Wales Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	City	Country	ALP	Liberal & National Parties	The Greens	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	34.5	34	36	59	19.5	28.5	27.5
Liberal & (National Party)	47.5	50.5	43	26	63.5	62.5	40
Can't say	18	15.5	21	15	17	9	32.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Would like to win the New South Wales State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you think will win, who would you like to win the next New South Wales State Election?”

	New South Wales Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	City	Country	ALP	Liberal & National Parties	The Greens	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	37	35	39.5	85.5	3.5	45.5	18.5
Liberal & (National Party)	45	46.5	42.5	8.5	90.5	23	18.5
Can't say	18	18.5	18	6	6	31.5	63
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better New South Wales Premier — Kristina Keneally v Barry O’Farrell

	Telephone Morgan Poll	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ms. Keneally	40	66.5	24.5	14.5	44	27.5	25.5
Mr. O’Farrell	30.5	7	57.5	59.5	24	72.5	17
Keneally lead	9.5	59.5	(33)	(45)	(20)	(45)	8.5
Other / Neither	29.5	26.5	18	26	32	-	57.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Telephone Morgan Poll	Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ms. Keneally	40	37	42.5	29	47.5	38	41.5
Mr. O’Farrell	30.5	36	25.5	18	16.5	33	37
Keneally lead	9.5	1	17	11	31	5	4.5
Other / Neither	29.5	27	32	53	36	29	21.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval of Leaders — Kristina Keneally v  Barry O’Farrell

New South Wales Premier: Kristina Keneally

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Keneally is handling her job as New South Wales Premier?”

	Telephone Morgan Poll	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	62	34.5	18.5	39.5	-	23
Disapprove	25.5	10	36	43	29.5	24	25.5
Approve - Disapprove	15.5	52	(1.5)	(24.5)	10	(24)	(2.5)
Can’t say	33.5	28	29.5	38.5	31	76	51.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Telephone Morgan Poll	Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	43	39	31	40.5	37.5	45.5
Disapprove	25.5	28	23	14	17	32.5	26.5
Approve - Disapprove	15.5	15	16	17	23.5	5	19
Can’t say	33.5	29	38	55	43	30	28
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Barry O’Farrell

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. O’Farrell is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Telephone Morgan Poll	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	38.5	35.5	52.5	44.5	30.5	-	21
Disapprove	28.5	35	21.5	17.5	37.5	24	25
Approve - Disapprove	10	0.5	31	27	(7)	(24)	(4)
Can’t say	33	29.5	26	38	32	76	54
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Telephone Morgan Poll	Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	38.5	42	35.5	26.5	26.5	37.5	47
Disapprove	28.5	30	26.5	20	29.5	26.5	31
Approve - Disapprove	10	12	9	6.5	(3)	11	16
Can’t say	33	28	38	53.5	44	36	22
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

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