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A Queensland State Election would be won by the Liberal National Party (LNP) if held now. LNP support is 55.5% (up 6.7% since the March 2009 Queensland State Election) leading the ALP (44.5%, down 6.7%) on a Two-Party Preferred basis, a special telephone Morgan Poll taken over the last month finds.

Despite Premier Bligh’s high disapproval rating (64.5%) for ‘handling her job as Premier of Queensland,’ Bligh is still just the ‘Preferred Premier’ of Queenslanders (38%) slightly ahead of Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek (37.5%).

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the past month, February 17/18 — March 17/18, 2010 well ahead of the next Queensland State Election — due to be held in 2012.

Primary support for the ALP is 34.5% (down 7.8% since the 2009 Queensland State Election), LNP 46.5% (up 4.9%), The Greens 9.5% (up 1.1%), Family First 2% (up 1.2%) and Independents/Other 7.5% (up 0.6%).

Think will win the Queensland State Election

Despite the LNP recording more support, more Queensland electors (44%) still think the ALP will win the 2012 Queensland State Election compared to 36% that think the LNP will win, while 20% can’t say.

A majority of ALP voters (61%) expect the ALP to win the election compared to 21.5% who expect the LNP to win.

Opinion amongst LNP supporters shows 32% expecting the ALP to win the Queensland State Election compared to 51% that think the LNP will win.

Would like to win the Queensland State Election

More Queenslanders would like to see the LNP win the State Election with 48% saying they would like the LNP to win compared to 33% who say they would like the ALP to win, while 19% can’t say.

Voters are clearly split along party lines with 81.5% of ALP supporters saying they would like the ALP to win the Queensland State Election compared to 4.5% preferring the LNP, while 92% of LNP supporters say they would like the LNP to win compared to only 3.5% that would prefer the ALP to win.

Better Queensland Premier (Bligh v Langbroek)

The special Morgan Poll finds that Anna Bligh (38%) is only just preferred as the “Better Premier of Queensland” by the Queensland electorate ahead of Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek (37.5%) while 24.5% can’t say.

Job Approval (Bligh v Langbroek)

The Morgan Poll also finds that although voters prefer Anna Bligh to John-Paul Langbroek as “Better Premier” they do not approve of the way she’s handling her job as Premier of Queensland with nearly two-thirds, 64.5% disapproving of Bligh’s handling of the job as Premier compared to only 25% that approve while 10.5% can’t say.

Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek is viewed slightly more positively with 32.5% of the Queensland electorate approving of his handling of the job of Opposition Leader compared to 34% that disapprove — but importantly over a third of the electorate (33.5%) are still undecided.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the past month in Queensland shows current Premier Anna Bligh’s ALP Government (44.5%) is well behind Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek reinvigorated LNP (55.5%) only a year after Bligh became the first woman elected as an Australian Premier.

“A clear majority of Queenslanders (64.5%) disapprove of Bligh’s ‘handling of the job as Queensland Premier’ compared to only 25% that approve while many people are still to make their minds up about Langbroek. Although 34% disapprove of Langbroek’s ‘handling of the job as Opposition Leader’ and 32.5% approve, over a third of the electorate (33.5%) are still undecided.

 “Despite trailing by a large margin on a Two-Party preferred basis, Bligh (38%) has a slender lead over Langbroek (37.5%) as preferred Queensland Premier — the only bright spot for Bligh.

“Although the next Queensland State Election is not due for around two years, at this early stage in the Queensland electoral cycle Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek is in a very good position to become Queensland’s first non-ALP Premier since former National Party Leader Rob Borbidge lost office in June 1998.”

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll on Queensland voting intention conducted with 423 Queensland electors between February 17 — March 18, 2010.

Primary Voting Intention

			Morgan Telephone Poll
	Queensland State Election Sep 9, 2006	Queensland State Election Mar 21, 2009	February 17 — March 18, 2010
	%	%	%
ALP	46.9	42.3	34.5
LNP*	37.9	41.6	46.5
Greens	8	8.4	9.5
Family First	1.9	0.8	2
Independents/ Others	5.3	6.9	7.5
Total	100	100	100

*The Liberal & National Parties contested the 2006 Queensland State Election separately.

Two-Party Preferred

			Morgan Telephone Poll
	Queensland State Election Sep 9, 2006	Queensland State Election Mar 21, 2009*	February 17 — March 18, 2010
	%	%	%
ALP	54.9	51.2	44.5
LNP	45.1	48.8	55.5
Total	100	100	100

*The Two-Party preferences for the 2009 Queensland State Election were not officially released. In 6 seats the Two-Party preferred results were not between the ALP & LNP.

Think will win the Queensland State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the next Queensland State Election?”

	Queensland Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	February 17 — March 18, 2010	City	Country	ALP	LNP	The Greens#	Family First#	Others/ Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	44	39	48.5	61	32	57	46	42.5
LNP	36	40.5	32.5	21.5	51	30	54	23
Can't say	20	20.5	19	17.5	17	13	0	34.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Would like to win the Queensland State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you think will win, who would you like to win the next Queensland State Election?”

	Queensland Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	February 17 — March 18, 2010	City	Country	ALP	LNP	The Greens#	Family First#	Others/ Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	33	32.5	33	81.5	3.5	40	33.5	6.5
LNP	48	48.5	47.5	4.5	92	32	48.5	35
Can't say	19	19	19.5	14	4.5	28	18	58.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Better Queensland Premier — Anna Bligh v John-Paul Langbroek

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	February 17 — March 18, 2010	ALP	LNP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ms. Bligh	38	73	15.5	42	29.5	23.5
Mr. Langbroek	37.5	13	65	27	52.5	17
Bligh lead	0.5	60	(49.5)	15	(23)	6.5
Other / Neither	24.5	14	19.5	31	18	59.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17 — March 18, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ms. Bligh	38	35.5	40.5	54	35	46	29.5
Mr. Langbroek	37.5	44	32	29	33.5	32	45.5
Bligh lead	0.5	(8.5)	8.5	25	1.5	14	(16)
Other / Neither	24.5	20.5	27.5	17	31.5	22	25
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Approval of Leaders — Anna Bligh v John-Paul Langbroek

Queensland Premier: Anna Bligh

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Bligh is handling her job as Queensland Premier?”

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	February 17 — March 18, 2010	City	Country	ALP	LNP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	25	25	25	50	10	26.5	22	5
Disapprove	64.5	61	67	38	81.5	63.5	78	86
Approve - Disapprove	(39.5)	(36)	(42)	12	(71.5)	(37)	(56)	(81)
Can’t say	10.5	14	8	12	8.5	10	-	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17 — March 18, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	25	21.5	29	38.5	23	29.5	19.5
Disapprove	64.5	71.5	57.5	40	62.5	58	75.5
Approve - Disapprove	(39.5)	(50)	(28.5)	(1.5)	(39.5)	(28.5)	(56)
Can’t say	10.5	7	13.5	21.5	14.5	12.5	5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Opposition Leader: John-Paul Langbroek

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Langbroek is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	February 17 — March 18, 2010	City	Country	ALP	LNP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	32.5	37.5	28.5	28.5	45	24.5	45	7
Disapprove	34	30.5	37.5	36.5	26.5	43.5	39	54.5
Approve - Disapprove	(1.5)	7	(9)	(8)	18.5	(19)	6	(47.5)
Can’t say	33.5	32	34	35	28.5	32	16	38.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Morgan Telephone Poll	Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17 — March 18, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	32.5	37.5	28	29.5	30	31	35.5
Disapprove	34	35	33	26.5	22	37.5	36.5
Approve - Disapprove	(1.5)	2.5	(5)	3	8	(6.5)	(1)
Can’t say	33.5	27.5	39	44	48	31.5	28
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

For further information:

Gary Morgan:               Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine:          Office (03) 9224 5215       Mobile 0411 129 093        Home (03) 9817 3066

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