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Only 10% of Australians want a population of 35 million+ by 2040 according to a special Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted during March 2010. Despite ABS projections of an Australian population likely to exceed 35 million by 2049, just 10% of Australians want a population more than 35 million — 6% (35-40 million); 2% (40-50 million) and 2% (50 million or more).

A clear majority (81%) of Australians do not want Australia’s population to exceed 35 million by 2040 — 35% want a population between 25-30 million, 21% want between 30-35 million, 19% want between 22-25 million and 6% want a population under 22 million. Only 9% of Australians can’t say.

Immigration Levels

Australians are more divided on the question of immigration — when asked “Over the last year (2008/09) about 170,000 immigrants came to Australia. Do you think the number of people coming here to live permanently should be increased, or reduced, or remain about the same” — 46% say immigration should ‘remain about the same,’ while 39% say immigration should ‘be reduced’ while just 11% say immigrations should ‘be increased.’

Interestingly, long-term trends on Australian views on immigration are remarkably consistent. When the same question was asked in 1970 (though quoting 180,000) — 45% of Australians responded immigration should ‘remain about the same,’ 38% said immigrations should ‘be reduced’ and only 12% said immigration should ‘be increased’ — almost exactly the same as today, 40 years later.

A large majority of Australians (84%) say that immigrants to Australia are ‘changing us’ while only 14% say they’re ‘having little effect’ and 2% can’t say. Australians are fairly evenly divided between those that say immigrants and changing us ‘for the better’ — 39% or changing us ‘for the worse’ — 32% while 13% can’s say.

Types of Immigration

Looking at different types of immigration shows that more Australians support, than oppose, varying types of immigration. When asked “Please say whether you support or oppose (insert type) of immigration” a majority of Australians supported each type of immigration.

The strongest support was for skilled immigration with 87% of Australians supporting skilled immigration compared to only 11% that oppose and 2% that can’t say. Family reunion immigration is also strongly supported with 78% support compared to 17% that oppose and 5% that can’t say.

Opinion was more divided — but still positive — for Muslim immigration with 55% of Australians supporting Muslim immigration compared to 36% that oppose and 9% that can’t say and Asylum seeker immigration with 50% supporting compared to 41% that are opposed and 9% that can’t say.

Send ‘Boat People’ back home

A large majority of Australians (64%) say that asylum seekers arriving by boat should ‘be returned and apply through normal refugee channels’ compared to 26% that are happy with the current system and believe these asylum seekers should be ‘allowed to apply for immigration as now’ while just 5% say there should be another system and a further 5% can’t say.

For this question, respondents were asked: Should asylum seekers arriving by boat be allowed to apply for immigration as now, or should they all be returned and told to apply through normal refugee channels.”

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite ABS projections that Australia’s population is set to top 35 million in the 2040s — the latest Roy Morgan telephone survey shows that a clear majority (81%) of Australians do not want a population of over 35 million by 2040. In fact — only 10% of Australians want a population in excess of 35 million. Far more Australians want a population of either 25-30 million (35%) or 30-35 million (21%).

“Although Australians don’t want a ‘huge’ population increase, Australian views on immigrants are generally positive with 39% of Australians saying immigrants change Australia ‘for the better’ compared to 32% that say immigrants change Australia ‘for the worse.’ This is not that surprising when one considers that approximately 30% of all Australian residents were born overseas.

“Looking at different types of immigrant shows that majorities of Australians are in favour of skilled migrants (87%); Family reunion migrants (78%); Muslim migrants (55%) and Asylum seeker migrants (50%) — although in the case of ‘Boat people,’ 64% of Australians say that they should be returned and made to apply though normal refugee channels while just 26% of Australians are happy with the current system.”

These are the main insights from the special Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted on the evenings of March 16/17, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 670 men and women aged 14 or over.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

Immigration Levels

When Australians were asked: “Over the last year (2008/09) about 170,000 immigrants came to Australia. Do you think the number of people coming here to live permanently should be increased, or reduced, or remain about the same?”

Only 11% of Australians said that immigration should be ‘increased,’ while 39% say it should be ‘reduced’ and 46% say it should ‘remain about the same.’ Only 4% of Australians can’t say.

	Electors							Total all people aged 14+
	July 1952*	July 1955*	May 1956*	Jan 1959*	Feb 1969*	Oct 1970*	March 2010	March 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Increased	14	10	8	26	19	12	9	11
Reduced	52	45	45	34	26	38	41	39
Remain about the same	29	39	40	33	45	45	45	46
Can’t say	5	6	7	7	10	5	5	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* In 1952 immigration level asked about was not stated; 1955 & 1956 — 125,000; 1958 — 100,000; 1969 — 160,000; 1970 — 180,000.

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Political Affiliation*
	March 2010	Electors	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Increased	11	9	9	5	25	0	13	6
Reduced	39	41	36	50	25	46	49	37
Remain about the same	46	45	51	39	50	54	38	43
Can’t say	4	5	4	6	0	0	0	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 — 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over).

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	March 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Increased	11	12	10	24	8	13	14	6
Reduced	39	36	41	22	32	32	39	46
Remain about the same	46	46	45	54	58	51	42	42
Can’t say	4	6	4	0	2	4	5	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	March 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Increased	11	13	7	9	15	8	12	12	9
Reduced	39	37	42	43	34	44	30	39	43
Remain about the same	46	44	48	41	45	47	56	47	48
Can’t say	4	6	3	7	6	1	2	2	0
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Immigrants effect on Australian Life

Respondents were then asked: “Judging by what you see and hear, do you think immigrants are changing Australia’s culture and way of life — or having little effect.”

Respondents who responded that immigrants are changing us were then asked: “Do you think immigrants are changing Australia’s culture and way of life for better or for worse?”

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Political Affiliation*
	March 2010	Electors	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	39	38	41	29	67	21	29	27
Worse	32	34	28	44	12	59	42	41
Can’t say (Better or Worse)	13	13	12	14	4	0	27	11
They’re changing us	84	85	81	87	83	80	98	79
Having little effect	14	14	18	11	17	20	2	18
Can’t say (Immigrations changing us)	2	1	1	2	0	0	0	3
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 — 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over).

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	March 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Better	39	38	41	56	40	37	42	36
Worse	32	32	32	17	31	20	28	43
Can’t say (Better or Worse)	13	14	12	5	9	13	18	11
They’re changing us	84	84	85	78	80	70	88	90
Having little effect	14	15	13	22	18	26	11	9
Can’t say (Immigrations changing us)	2	1	2	0	2	4	1	1
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	March 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Better	39	45	30	41	47	29	43	32	30
Worse	32	27	40	31	26	38	33	36	43
Can’t say (Better or Worse)	13	13	12	13	11	14	8	19	7
They’re changing us	84	85	82	85	84	81	84	87	80
Having little effect	14	14	16	13	15	18	15	13	13
Can’t say (Immigrations changing us)	2	1	2	2	1	1	1	0	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Australian Population Size

Respondents were then asked: “Australia’s population has increased by 5 million from 17 million to 22 million over the last 20 years. What population do you think we should aim to have in Australia in 30 years — that is, by 2040?”

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Political Affiliation*
	March 2010	Electors	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Under 22 million	6	6	6	6	3	20	3	7
22 — Under 25 million	19	20	23	18	15	55	21	24
25 — Under 30 million	35	35	33	38	31	15	36	20
30 — Under 35 million	21	21	19	18	37	10	27	20
35 — Under 40 million	6	5	5	6	5	0	5	0
40 — Under 50 million	2	2	3	2	1	0	2	0
50 million or more	2	2	3	2	1	0	0	4
Can’t say	9	9	8	10	7	0	6	25
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 — 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over).

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	March 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Under 22 million	6	7	6	6	8	6	6	6
22 — Under 25 million	19	15	22	12	24	14	16	22
25 — Under 30 million	35	37	33	41	31	40	36	31
30 — Under 35 million	21	22	21	25	24	13	20	25
35 — Under 40 million	6	6	5	9	4	11	6	4
40 — Under 50 million	2	2	2	0	4	2	3	1
50 million or more	2	4	1	7	2	4	3	1
Can’t say	9	7	10	0	3	10	10	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	March 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Under 22 million	6	6	7	7	10	4	2	4	0
22 — Under 25 million	19	17	22	17	18	20	27	12	46
25 — Under 30 million	35	36	32	35	32	36	37	36	12
30 — Under 35 million	21	22	20	22	22	25	11	22	9
35 — Under 40 million	6	6	5	5	6	5	7	9	13
40 — Under 50 million	2	2	2	2	1	2	3	4	3
50 million or more	2	2	3	3	1	1	6	3	7
Can’t say	9	9	9	9	10	7	7	10	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Types of Immigrant to Australia

Respondents were then asked: “Please say whether you support or oppose (Muslim / Asylum seeker/ Skilled migrant/ Family reunion) immigration?”

Muslim immigration

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Political Affiliation*
	March 2010	Electors	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Support	55	55	62	42	83	20	55	46
Oppose	36	36	31	49	11	80	29	31
Can’t say	9	9	7	9	6	0	16	23
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 — 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over).

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	March 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	55	55	56	73	68	73	61	38
Oppose	36	35	37	24	30	22	30	49
Can’t say	9	10	7	3	2	5	9	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	March 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	55	59	49	54	58	48	67	58	44
Oppose	36	31	45	36	32	45	28	35	38
Can’t say	9	10	6	10	10	7	5	7	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Asylum seeker immigration

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Political Affiliation*
	March 2010	Electors	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Support	50	49	52	38	84	40	50	44
Oppose	41	41	38	50	11	60	45	42
Can’t say	9	10	10	12	5	0	5	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 — 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over).

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	March 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	50	50	51	57	49	58	58	40
Oppose	41	42	39	35	45	34	33	48
Can’t say	9	8	10	8	6	8	9	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	March 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	50	51	48	52	49	48	55	47	39
Oppose	41	38	45	37	43	44	41	43	54
Can’t say	9	11	7	11	8	8	4	10	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Skilled migrant immigration

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Political Affiliation*
	March 2010	Electors	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Support	87	87	88	87	94	59	84	64
Oppose	11	11	10	10	6	41	12	25
Can’t say	2	2	2	3	0	0	4	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 — 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over).

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	March 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	87	87	87	80	82	89	89	87
Oppose	11	11	10	17	14	7	11	10
Can’t say	2	2	3	3	4	4	0	3
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	March 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	87	89	83	90	89	81	88	83	94
Oppose	11	9	14	8	10	16	12	11	6
Can’t say	2	2	3	2	1	3	0	6	0
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Family reunion immigration

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Political Affiliation*
	March 2010	Electors	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Support	78	77	84	70	90	75	67	75
Oppose	17	18	11	25	9	25	26	18
Can’t say	5	5	5	5	1	0	7	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 — 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over).

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	March 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	78	77	79	83	91	87	78	71
Oppose	17	19	15	14	7	9	19	22
Can’t say	5	4	6	3	2	4	3	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	March 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	78	79	76	76	82	70	87	79	94
Oppose	17	17	19	20	14	24	10	15	6
Can’t say	5	4	5	4	4	6	3	6	0
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Attitudes to Immigration of ‘Boat People’

Respondents were then asked: “Should asylum seekers arriving by boat be allowed to apply for immigration as now, or should they all be returned and told to apply through normal refugee channels?”

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Political Affiliation*
	March 2010	Electors	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
As now	26	26	27	14	66	0	29	19
Be returned and apply through normal refugee channels	64	64	62	77	27	100	63	60
Other	5	5	8	3	3	0	2	10
Can’t say	5	5	3	6	4	0	6	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 — 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over).

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	March 2010	Men	Women	14-17	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
As now	26	26	26	35	25	34	28	21
Be returned and apply through normal refugee channels	64	66	62	52	70	56	59	71
Other	5	4	6	4	2	5	6	5
Can’t say	5	4	6	9	3	5	7	3
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Total all people aged 14+	Analysis by States & Regions
	March 2010	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
As now	26	29	21	31	26	20	29	22	22
Be returned and apply through normal refugee channels	64	59	72	57	63	72	61	69	75
Other	5	6	4	6	7	3	7	2	3
Can’t say	5	6	3	6	4	5	3	7	0
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:    Office +61 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

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