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In New South Wales the Liberal Party and National Party support is 58% (up 6.5% since February 17/18 & 24 — 28, 2010) well ahead of the ALP (42%, down 6.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis, a special telephone Morgan Poll taken over the last 2 weeks finds.

Primary support for the ALP is 28.5% (down 6% since February 2010 and down 10.5% since the 2007 NSW State Election), Liberal Party 44% (up 3%, and up 16.1% since the 2007 NSW State Election) and National Party 1% (down 1%), The Greens 16% (up 5%), and Independents/Others 10.5% (down 1%).

Premier Kristina Keneally’s approval rating is 46% (up 5%) for handling her job as NSW Premier while 35% (up 9.5%) disapprove. Ms. Keneally remains the ‘Preferred Premier’ of New South Wales electors with 41%, (up 1%) ahead of Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell, 36% (up 5.5%).

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on June 2/3 & 9, 2010, before next week’s Penrith by-election to be held on Saturday June 19, 2010.

If the New South Wales State Election had been held this week the Liberal & National Parties would have been elected.

Think will win the New South Wales State Election

More New South Wales electors (62%, up 14.5%) think the L-NP will win next year’s New South Wales State Election to be held in March compared to 25% (down 9.5%) that think the ALP will win, while 13% (down 5%) can’t say.

ALP voters are almost evenly split with 46% expecting the ALP to win the New South Wales State Election compared to 45% who expect the Liberal & National Parties to win.

A clear majority of Liberal & National Party supporters expect the L-NP (76%) to win the New South Wales State Election compared to 14% that think the ALP will win.

Would like to win the New South Wales State Election

More New South Wales electors (53%, up 8%) say they would like to see the L-NP win the New South Wales State Election in March 2011 compared to 31%, (down 6%) who say they would like the ALP to win, while 16% (down 2%) can’t say.

Voters are clearly split along party lines with 86% of ALP supporters saying they would like the ALP to win the State Election compared to 6% preferring the Liberal & National Parties while 96% of Liberal & National Party supporters say they would like the Liberal & National Parties to win compared to only 2% that would prefer the ALP to win.

Better New South Wales Premier (Kristina Keneally v Barry O’Farrell)

This special telephone Morgan Poll finds that current New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally (41%, up 1%) is still marginally preferred as the “Better Premier of New South Wales” by the electorate ahead of Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell (36%, up 5.5%) while 23% (down 6.5%) can’t say.

Job Approval (Kristina Keneally v Barry O’Farrell)

The special telephone Morgan Poll also finds that 46%, (up 5%) approve of the way Premier Keneally is handling her job as Premier of New South Wales with 35%, (up 9.5%) disapproving of how she is handling her job while 19% (down 14.5%) can’t say.

Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell is viewed slightly less positively than the Premier with 42%, (up 3.5%) of the New South Wales electorate approving of his handling of the job of Opposition Leader compared to 35% (up 6.5%) that disapprove — while 23% (down 10%) are undecided.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the past two weeks in early June (June 2/3 & 9, 2010) shows the Liberal & National Parties (58%, up 6.5% since February 2010 and up 10.3% since the 2007 NSW State Election) now well ahead of the ALP Government (42%, down 6.5% and down 10.3% since the 2007 NSW State Election) on a Two-Party Preferred basis with Liberal Party candidate Stuart Ayres set to easily claim victory in next week’s crucial Penrith by-election.

“Despite the strong Two-Party Preferred lead for the L-NP, Premier Kristina Keneally (41%, up 1%) retains a small lead over Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell (36%, up 5.5%) as Better New South Wales Premier — and perhaps remains her Government’s only hope of a miraculous victory at next year’s New South Wales State Election.

“In fact, both leaders have very similar Job Approval ratings with 46% (up 5%) of NSW electors approving of Keneally’s handling of the job as NSW Premier compared to 35% (up 9.5%) that disapprove while 42% of NSW electors approve of O’Farrell’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader compared to 35% (up 6.5%) that disapprove. Clearly electors are making up their minds about each of the leaders as those who can’t say have fallen significantly for both.

“Qualitative Morgan Poll research asked respondents who they preferred as Better Premier, however, electors’ approval of both party leaders was often weak. Some that preferred Keneally as Better Premier remarked that ‘I don’t think O’Farrell has a lot going for him,’ and ‘I’m a believer in the ‘devil you know,’’ while those preferring O’Farrell said ‘He’s been there a long time — he’s the best of a bad bunch’ and ‘Well, he hasn’t been in Government yet. The lesser of two evils (maybe).”

“Although the electorate may have similar views of the respective leaders, the strong performance of the Liberal & National Parties on a Two-Party Preferred basis is matched by the clear majorities of NSW electors who want the Liberal & National Parties to win next year’s NSW State Election (53%) and those who think the Liberal & National Parties will win next year’s NSW State Election (62%).

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll on New South Wales voting intention conducted with 360 New South Wales electors between June 2 — 9, 2010.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:               Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine:          Office (03) 9224 5215       Mobile 0411 129 093        Home (03) 9817 3066

Qualitative Answers for Better Premier

Respondents were asked for reasons for why they Preferred either Leader

Prefer Kristina Keneally (ALP)

“She means what she says.”

“She seems to be doing a good enough job.”

“She is positively doing something.”

“I don’t think O’Farrell has a lot going for him.”

“Well, the other one has not come up with anything interesting and you never hear very much about them so you can’t form an opinion of them if you don’t know.”

“I’m a believer in the ‘devil you know.’”

Prefer Barry O’Farrell (Liberal)

“I agree with his party politics.”

“I think he’s more experienced and he could show a lot more of what he’s capable of if he’s given a chance.”

“Well, he hasn’t been in Government yet. The lesser of two evils (maybe).”

“He’s been there a long time. He’s the best pick of a bad bunch.”

“Because he brings change for the state.”

“Hopefully because he has a better team behind him.”

Prefer Neither

“O’Farrell doesn’t explain himself well — he makes issues complicated. When the Canadian girl says something she goes over the top when trying to explain it.”

“I have a general feeling of dislike for both of them.”

“I don’t think either of them has shown great leadership.”

“Politicians are painted with the same brush. As soon as you put them in you get the same result.”

Qualitative Answers for Job Approval & Disapproval (Kristina Keneally)

Respondents were asked for reasons for why they Approved or Disapproved of Premier Kristina Keneally.

APPROVE

“She is making an effort.”

“She’s a woman that seems to know a lot about the councils and the state of NSW.”

“Ms. Kenneally is a very good communicator, but her party’s performance is lousy.”

“She seems to know her job and be open about it. She’s doing a good job altogether given the situation and the state we’re in.”

DISAPPROVE

“Because she hasn’t changed anything.”

“I think she’s being unduly influenced on some matters that I feel strongly about — in particular environmental and transport matters.”

“I think she should have been a little bit more understanding.”

“She is the puppet to the party. She is not the one making decisions. She is scripted and she just looks at the paper in front of her and can’t think for herself.”

“Because I don’t approve of the Labour Party.”

Qualitative Answers for Job Approval & Disapproval (Barry O’Farrell)

Respondents were asked for reasons for why they Approved or Disapproved of Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell.

APPROVE

“He is offering an alternative.”

“I think he is doing the best he can.”

“He could be more outspoken and improve his profile.”

“He is doing his best but lacks the charisma for the job.”

DISAPPROVE

“He’s a very negative person. He is just having a go at the Labour Government all the time. He never comes up with any answers himself.”

“I don’t like the way the Liberal Party is behaving.”

“I don’t think he has a clue.”

“I don’t think he’s much of anything, which is why its hard to say who I’ll vote for.”

Primary Voting Intention

			Telephone Morgan Poll
	New South Wales State Election March 22, 2003	New South Wales State Election March 24, 2007	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3 & 9, 2010
	%	%	%	%
ALP	42.7	39.0	34.5	28.5
Liberal & (National Party)	34.4 (9.6)	38.0 (10.1)	43 (2)	45 (1)
Greens	8.3	9.0	11	16
Independents/ Others	14.6	14.0	11.5	10.5
Total	100	100	100	100

Two-Party Preferred

			Telephone Morgan Poll
	New South Wales State Election March 22, 2003	New South Wales State Election March 24, 2007	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3 & 9, 2010
	%	%	%
ALP	56.2	52.3	48.5	42
Liberal & (National Party)	43.8	47.7	51.5	58
Total	100	100	100	100

Think will win the New South Wales State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the next New South Wales State Election?”

	New South Wales Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	June 2/3 & 9, 2010	City	Country	ALP	Liberal & National Parties	The Greens	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	25	21	31	46	14	19	20
Liberal & (National Party)	62	65	56	45	76	66	50
Can't say	13	14	13	9	10	15	30
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Would like to win the New South Wales State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you think will win, who would you like to win the next New South Wales State Election?”

	New South Wales Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	June 2/3 & 9, 2010	City	Country	ALP	Liberal & National Parties	The Greens	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	31	29	35	86	2	31	16
Liberal & (National Party)	53	56	49	6	96	40	31
Can't say	16	15	16	8	2	29	53
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Better New South Wales Premier — Kristina Keneally v Barry O’Farrell

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3 & 9, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ms. Keneally	40	41	71	22	51	43	64	34
Mr. O’Farrell	30.5	36	8	62	49	24	-	30
Keneally lead	9.5	5	63	(40)	2	19	64	4
Other / Neither	29.5	23	21	16	-	33	36	36
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3 & 9, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ms. Keneally	40	41	38	43	40	40	47	37
Mr. O’Farrell	30.5	36	43	30	20	32	33	42
Keneally lead	9.5	5	(5)	13	20	8	14	(5)
Other / Neither	29.5	23	19	27	40	28	20	21
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval of Leaders — Kristina Keneally v  Barry O’Farrell

New South Wales Premier: Kristina Keneally

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Keneally is handling her job as New South Wales Premier?”

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3 & 9, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	46	75	32	51	45	100	33
Disapprove	25.5	35	7	57	28	28	-	37
Approve - Disapprove	15.5	11	68	(25)	23	17	100	(4)
Can’t say	33.5	19	18	11	21	27	-	30
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3 & 9, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	46	48	45	52	36	49	47
Disapprove	25.5	35	40	32	16	30	36	40
Approve - Disapprove	15.5	11	8	13	36	6	13	7
Can’t say	33.5	19	12	23	32	34	15	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Barry O’Farrell

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. O’Farrell is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3 & 9, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Others/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	38.5	42	35	57	74	31	64	21
Disapprove	28.5	35	41	25	26	48	-	38
Approve - Disapprove	10	7	(6)	32	48	(17)	64	(17)
Can’t say	33	23	24	18	-	21	36	41
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3 & 9, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	38.5	42	47	37	37	31	41	46
Disapprove	28.5	35	38	32	24	23	36	39
Approve - Disapprove	10	7	9	5	13	8	5	7
Can’t say	33	23	15	31	39	46	23	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

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