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A Victorian State Election would be extremely close if held now. Liberal Party and National Party support is 50.5% just leading the ALP (49.5%) on a Two-Party Preferred basis, a special telephone Morgan Poll taken over the last three weeks finds.

Despite a high disapproval rating (46%, down 1%) for Premier John Brumby's handling of his job as Premier of Victoria, Brumby is still the "Preferred Premier" of a clear number of Victorians (48%, down 2.5%) still well ahead of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu (33%, up 2.5%).

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted June 2-17, 2010 just five months ahead of this year’s Victorian State Election — due to be held on November 27, 2010.

If the Victorian State Election had been held now the result would have been too close to call.

Primary support for the ALP was 35 (down 2.5% from February 2010, and down 6.1% from the 2006 Victorian State Election), Liberal Party 38% (down 4% from February 2010, but up 3.6% from the 2006 Election) and National Party 3% (up 0.5%), the Greens 13.5% (up 2%), Family First 3% (up 2%) and Independents/Other 7.5% (up 2%).

Better Victorian Premier (John Brumby v Ted Baillieu)

The special Morgan Poll finds that John Brumby (48%, down 2.5%) remains clearly preferred as the “Better Premier of Victoria” by the Victorian electorate ahead of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu (33%, up 2.5%) while 19% can’t say.

Analysis by gender shows Brumby holds a huge lead amongst female Victorian electors with 52.5% preferring Brumby compared to only 28% that prefer Baillieu. Opinion amongst male electors is more evenly divided with 43% preferring Brumby compared to 38.5% preferring Baillieu.

Job Approval (John Brumby v Ted Baillieu)

The special telephone Morgan Poll also finds that although voters prefer John Brumby to Ted Baillieu as “Better Premier” they do not approve of the way he’s handling his job as Premier of Victoria with nearly half, 46% (down 1%) disapproving of Brumby’s handling of the job as Premier compared to 41% (up 4%) that approve while 13% (down 3%) can’t say.

Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu is viewed similarly though with 37.5% (down 2.5%) of the Victorian electorate approving of his handling of the job of Opposition Leader compared to 41.5% (up 5.5%) that disapprove — but more than a fifth of the electorate (21%, down 3%) are still undecided.

A close analysis of the results again reveals a distinct ‘gender gap’ between the two Leaders with 45% of female electors approving of John Brumby’s handling of his job compared to 41% that disapprove, while only 36.5% of male electors approve of John Brumby compared to a majority, 51.5%, that disapprove.

In contrast, while male electors are evenly split of Ted Baillieu’s handing of his job as Opposition Leader with 41% approving and 41% disapproving, a greater proportion of female electors (42%) disapprove of Baillieu’s job performance than approve (34.5%).

Think will win the Victorian State Election

More Victorian electors (50%) think the ALP will win this year’s Victorian State Election to be held in November than the Liberal & National Parties (33%), while 17% can’t say.

A large majority of ALP voters (76%) expect the ALP to win the election compared to 11% who expect the Liberal & National Parties to win.

Opinion amongst Liberal & National Party supporters is clearly in the opposite direction with 54.5% expecting the Liberal & National Parties to win compared to only 32% expecting the ALP to win.

Would like to win the Victorian State Election

Although Victorians believe the ALP will win this year’s Victorian State Election, a larger proportion of Victorians (43.5%) would like to see the Liberal & National Parties return to Government compared to 41.5% that would like to see the Brumby Government re-elected and 15% can’t say.

Voters are clearly split along party lines with 88% of ALP supporters saying they would like the ALP to win the Victorian State Election compared to 5% preferring the Liberal & National Parties while 92.5% of Liberal & National Party supporters say they would like the Liberal & National Parties to win compared to only 2.5% that would prefer the ALP to win.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the past three weeks in June on Victorian State voting intention finds the Liberal & National Party Opposition (50.5%, unchanged since February 2010) retain a very slim Two-Party Preferred lead over the incumbent ALP Government (49.5%, unchanged).

“However, both major parties have lost primary support over the past four months with support for both the ALP (35%, down 2%) and the Liberal Party (38%, down 4%) drifting away from the major parties to the Greens (13.5%, up 2%), Family First (3%, up 2%) and Independents/ Others (7.5%, up 2%).

“The drift in support to the Greens is of particular concern for the ALP as the inner Melbourne seats of Brunswick (held by the ALP by 3.6% over the Greens), Melbourne (1.9%), Northcote (8.5%) and Richmond (3.6%) are all vulnerable to an increased Green vote.

“Today’s Morgan Poll clearly shows Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu faces a different challenge as he attempts to become Victoria’s 46th Premier. Baillieu needs to increase his appeal to Victorian female voters. A very clear majority of female electors (52.5%) currently prefer Premier Brumby as the “Better Premier” of Victoria, while less than a third (28%) prefers Baillieu.”

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll on Victorian voting intention conducted with 430 Victorian electors between June 2 — 17, 2010.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:               Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine:          Office (03) 9224 5215       Mobile 0411 129 093        Home (03) 9817 3066

Primary Voting Intention

			Telephone Morgan Poll
	Victorian State Election Nov 30, 2002	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010
	%	%	%	%
ALP	47.9	43.1	37.5	35
Liberal & (National Party)	38.2 (4.3)	39.6 (5.2)	44.5 (2.5)	41 (3)
Greens	9.7	10.0	11.5	13.5
Family First	^	4.3	1	3
Independents/ Others	4.2	3	5.5	7.5
Total	100	100	100	100

^ The Family First was launched in August 2004.

Two-Party Preferred

			Telephone Morgan Poll
	Victorian State Election Nov 30, 2002	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010
	%	%	%	%
ALP	57.8	54.4	49.5	49.5
Liberal & National Parties	42.2	45.6	50.5	50.5
Total	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Think will win the Victorian State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the Victorian State Election in November?”

	Victorian Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010	City	Country	ALP	Liberal & National Parties	The Greens#	Others/ Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	50	51	46.5	76	32	48.5	38
Liberal & National Parties	33	32	36.5	11	54.5	39	16.5
Can't say	17	17	17	13	13.5	12.5	45.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Would like to win the Victorian State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you think will win, who would you like to win the Victorian State Election in November?”

	Victorian Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010	City	Country	ALP	Liberal & National Parties	The Greens#	Others/ Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	41.5	44.5	32.5	88	5	60.5	9.5
Liberal & National Parties	43.5	41.5	48	5	92.5	18	15.5
Can't say	15	14	19.5	7	2.5	21.5	75
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Better Victorian Premier — John Brumby v Ted Baillieu

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mr. Brumby	50.5	48	86	17.5	9.5	66	47.5	24
Mr. Baillieu	30.5	33	5.5	68	75	14	26.5	15
Brumby lead	20	15	80.5	(50.5)	(65.5)	52	21	9
Other / Neither	19	19	8.5	14.5	15.5	20	26	61
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mr. Brumby	50.5	48	43	52.5	59.5	49.5	53.5	40.5
Mr. Baillieu	30.5	33	38.5	28	21	25.5	28.5	42
Brumby lead	20	15	4.5	24.5	38.5	24	25	(1.5)
Other / Neither	19	19	18.5	19.5	19.5	25	18	17.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Approval of Leaders — John Brumby v Ted Baillieu

Victorian Premier: John Brumby

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Brumby is handling his job as Victorian Premier?”

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	37	41	74.5	19	26.5	34.5	39	23
Disapprove	47	46	11.5	73.5	73.5	56	50	41
Approve - Disapprove	(10)	(5)	63	(54.5)	(47)	(21.5)	(11)	(18)
Can’t say	16	13	14	7.5	-	9.5	11	36
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	37	41	36.5	45	43.5	51	43	34.5
Disapprove	47	46	51.5	41	31.5	32	43	57
Approve - Disapprove	(10)	(5)	(15)	4	12	19	0	(22.5)
Can’t say	16	13	12	14	25	17	14	8.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Opposition Leader: Ted Baillieu

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Baillieu is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	40	37.5	32.5	57	32.5	22.5	9	16
Disapprove	36	41.5	49.5	27	42	62	66	33
Approve - Disapprove	4	(4)	(17)	30	(9.5)	(39.5)	(57)	(17)
Can’t say	24	21	18	16	25.5	15.5	25	51
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Telephone Morgan Poll		Analysis by Sex and Age
	February 17/18 & 24-28, 2010	June 2/3, 9/10 & 16/17, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	40	37.5	41	34.5	30	30.5	36.5	43
Disapprove	36	41.5	41	42	27.5	38.5	43	45
Approve - Disapprove	4	(4)	0	(7.5)	2.5	(8)	(6.5)	(2)
Can’t say	24	21	18	23.5	42.5	31	20.5	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

For further information:

Gary Morgan:               Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine:          Office (03) 9224 5215       Mobile 0411 129 093        Home (03) 9817 3066

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