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•  As released on Seven News (Tuesday June 29, 2010).

New Prime Minister Julia Gillard (49%) is clearly preferred over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (34%) as the ‘Better Prime Minister’ by Australian electors according to this special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the past four days, June 25-28, 2010.

Analysis by gender shows Australian women clearly prefer Gillard (54%) over Abbott (28%), but amongst men Gillard (43%) is only narrowly preferred over Abbott (40%) as Better PM.

After just becoming Prime Minister 40% of Australian electors approve of the way Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister — this is up 4% on Kevin Rudd’s approval for May 12/13, 2010. Only 24% (down 31%) disapprove of Julia Gillard and a high 36% (up 27%) can’t say. Clearly many electors are yet to make up their minds about the new Prime Minister.

Analysis by gender shows Australian women giving Gillard higher approval (44%) than men (37%) for her handling of the job as Prime Minister and lower disapproval (22%) compared to men (26%).

Approval of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (48%, up 4%) is his highest since becoming Opposition Leader. Disapproval of Abbott (41%, down 5%) has fallen and now 11% (up 1%) of electors can’t say.

Analysis by gender again shows a clear split with a majority of Australian men (53%) approving of Abbott’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader compared to only 38% that disapprove whilst Australian women are evenly split on Abbott’s job performance — 44% approve and 44% disapprove.

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott

	Rudd v Turnbull					Rudd v Abbott			Gillard v Abbott
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	May 4/5, 2010	May 12/13, 2010	June 25-28, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	69	60.5	70	69	60	61	53	49	49
Abbott	20	26.5	20	18	25	25	32	37	34
Gillard lead	49	34	50	51	35	36	21	12	15
Other / Can’t say	11	13	10	13	15	14	15	14	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

Gary Morgan says:

“New Prime Minister Julia Gillard (49%) is clearly preferred over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (34%) as ‘Better PM.’ However, analysis by gender reveals Gillard’s lead is largely built upon the support of women who prefer Gillard (54%) to Abbott (28%). Men are far more evenly split between the two leaders, although slightly more (43%) favour Gillard compared to 40% that prefer Abbott.

“Interestingly, despite electors preferring Gillard head-to-head for ‘Better PM’, a greater number of electors (48%) approve of Tony Abbott’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader than approve of Gillard’s handling of the job of Prime Minister (40%) — although a much higher proportion of electors have not yet made up their mind about Gillard (36%) than Abbott (11%).

“The results of this special telephone Morgan Poll reveal that Australians are set for a historic Federal Election later this year.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last four days June 25-28, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 603 electors.

Latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, conducted over the last four days, June 25-28, 2010, shows the L-NP (51.5%, up 4.5% from the last Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted on June 19/20, 2010) now leading the ALP (48.5%, down 4.5%) on a Two-Party Preferred basis. However in analysing this telephone poll result, it is worth noting that telephone polls have typically been biased towards the L-NP and more ‘responsive’ to current events.

Better Prime Minister: Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

	Rudd v Turnbull							Rudd v Abbott				Gillard v Abbott
	Sep 10/11, 2008#	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct 15/16, 2008	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	May 4/5, 2010	May 12/13, 2010	June 25-28, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ms. Gillard	63	55	62.5	69	60.5	70	69	60	61	53	49	49
Mr. Abbott	24	30	24	20	26.5	20	18	25	25	32	37	34
Gillard lead	39	25	38.5	49	34	50	51	35	36	21	12	15
Other / Can’t say	13	15	13.5	11	13	10	13	15	14	15	14	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader					Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	May 4/5, 2010	May 12/13, 2010	June 25-28, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ms. Gillard	60	61	53	49	49	86	16	11	67	43	50
Mr. Abbott	25	25	32	37	34	4	69	57	6	57	21
Gillard lead	35	36	21	12	15	82	(53)	(46)	61	(14)	29
Other / Neither	15	14	15	14	17	10	15	32	27	0	29
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader					Analysis by Sex and Age
	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	May 4/5, 2010	May 12/13, 2010	June 25-28, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Ms. Gillard	60	61	53	49	49	43	54	48	48	52	47
Mr. Abbott	25	25	32	37	34	40	28	31	35	29	37
Gillard lead	35	36	21	12	15	3	26	17	13	23	10
Other / Neither	15	14	15	14	17	17	18	21	17	19	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Approval of Leaders — Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Julia Gillard (Formerly Kevin Rudd)

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”

	Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister											Julia Gillard as Prime Minister
	Sep 10/11, 2008	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct 15/16, 2008	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	May 4/5, 2010	May 12/13, 2010	June 25-28, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	56	55	64	68	57.5	63	66	53	50	42	36	40
Disapprove	33	31	23	21	33.5	29	24	36	35	49	55	24
Approve - Disapprove	23	24	41	47	24	34	42	17	15	(7)	(19)	16
Can’t say	11	14	13	11	9	8	10	11	15	9	9	36
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 25-28, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	40	63	24	22	42	27	21
Disapprove	24	11	35	52	21	22	31
Approve - Disapprove	16	52	(11)	(30)	21	5	(10)
Can’t say	36	26	41	26	37	51	48
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	June 25-28, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	40	37	44	57	35	44	36
Disapprove	24	26	22	17	27	26	23
Approve - Disapprove	16	11	22	40	8	18	13
Can’t say	36	37	34	26	38	30	41
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader						Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader
	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct 15/16, 2008	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	May 4/5, 2010	May 12/13, 2010	June 25-28, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	43	55	42	43	25	29	34	41	40.5	44	48
Disapprove	24	24	37.5	39	62.5	56	27	32	41.5	46	41
Approve - Disapprove	19	31	4.5	4	(37.5)	(27)	7	9	(1)	(2)	7
Can’t say	33	21	20.5	18	12.5	15	39	27	18	10	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 25-28, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	48	25	80	61	23	21	22
Disapprove	41	66	13	33	62	41	53
Approve - Disapprove	7	(41)	67	28	(39)	(20)	(31)
Can’t say	11	9	7	6	15	38	25
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	June 25-28, 2010	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	48	53	44	46	46	46	52
Disapprove	41	38	44	39	36	41	42
Approve - Disapprove	7	15	0	7	10	5	10
Can’t say	11	9	12	15	18	13	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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