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If a Federal Election were held today the LNP would now win the Queensland ALP marginal seats of Flynn, Longman and Dawson, while the ALP would retain Leichhardt according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted June 25-30, 2010 in four Queensland ALP marginal electorates: Flynn, Longman, Dawson and Leichhardt.

The LNP vote (Two-Party Preferred) in Flynn was 55% (up 7.3%); Longman 56.5%, (up 8.2%) and Dawson 51%, (up 3.4%). In Leichhardt the ALP was virtually unchanged at 54%.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special Queensland marginal seat telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the past week shows the key ALP seats of Flynn (LNP 55% cf. ALP 45%) and Longman (LNP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%) are set to swing decisively to the LNP at this year’s Federal Election and the seat of Dawson is now on a knife-edge with the LNP (51%) just ahead of the ALP (49%). ALP support in the Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt has held up more strongly with the ALP (54%) clearly in front of the LNP (46%).

“These worrying results for the ALP come despite the ALP’s decision to change leaders last week (Thursday June 24, 2010) and shows new Prime Minister Julia Gillard has experienced no ‘honeymoon effect’ in these key Queensland marginal seats. Analysis by gender shows a potential problem for the Gillard Government as significantly more men than women prefer the LNP in the seats of Flynn and Longman

“Late news today suggesting the Gillard Government is set to announce a ‘deal’ with the majority overseas-owned mining companies — BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata — about the damaging Mining ‘Super Profits’ Tax will only help the ALP gain support (particularly in the mining seats of Flynn and Dawson) if the changes are accepted by all Australians, not just the ‘Big 3’ mining companies. Because so many more Australians disapprove than approve of the Tax the Gillard Government must ‘throw out’ the Rudd Government’s Mining ‘Super Profits’ Tax to have a chance of winning crucial marginal seats.”

Tomorrow the Morgan Poll will release results from surveying key marginal seats in the other States of Australia.

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today, which party would receive your FIRST preference?”

Flynn (Gladstone & Central Queensland Mining areas)

Primary Voting Intention

*The Primary Voting Intention results from the 2007 Federal Election are taken from the boundaries used at the 2007 Federal Election..

Two-Party Preferred

*The Two-Party Preferred results for the 2007 Federal Election have been recalculated taking into

 account boundary changes undertaken at the 2009 Queensland redistribution.

204 electors were polled in the electorate of Flynn. Of all electors surveyed, 4% of electors did not nominate a party.

Longman (Moreton Bay, Caboolture, Northern outskirts of Brisbane)

Primary Voting Intention

*The Primary Voting Intention results from the 2007 Federal Election are taken from the boundaries used at the 2007 Federal Election.

Two-Party Preferred

*The Two-Party Preferred results for the 2007 Federal Election have been recalculated taking into

 account boundary changes undertaken at the 2009 Queensland redistribution.

201 electors were polled in the electorate of Longman. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% of electors did not nominate a party.

Dawson (Mackay, Whitsundays, outskirts of Townsville)

Primary Voting Intention

*The Primary Voting Intention results from the 2007 Federal Election are taken from the boundaries used at the 2007 Federal Election.

Two-Party Preferred

*The Two-Party Preferred results for the 2007 Federal Election have been recalculated taking into

 account boundary changes undertaken at the 2009 Queensland redistribution.

205 electors were polled in the electorate of Dawson. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% of electors did not nominate a party.

Leichhardt (Far North Queensland — Cairns, Cooktown, Cape York, Torres Strait)

Primary Voting Intention

*The Primary Voting Intention results from the 2007 Federal Election are taken from the boundaries used at the 2007 Federal Election.

Two-Party Preferred

*The Two-Party Preferred results for the 2007 Federal Election have been recalculated taking into

 account boundary changes undertaken at the 2009 Queensland redistribution.

206 electors were polled in the electorate of Leichhardt. Of all electors surveyed, 4% of electors did not nominate a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

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