ALP 55% (up 6%) set to win Federal Election over L-NP 45% (down 6%)
But Men & Women Split on New PM Gillard
| Finding No. 4532 -
This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of June 26/27, 2010 (299 electors) & July 3/4, 2010 (879 electors), with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,178 electors. Of all electors surveyed, a low 5% did not name a party.:
July 09, 2010 |
In early July, just a week into Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s new Government, the latest Morgan Poll shows the ALP at 55%* and the L-NP at 45% on a Two-Party preferred basis. ALP support at 55% is up 6% since the telephone Morgan Poll conducted on June 25-28, the weekend after the ALP leadership change and up 2% since the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted June 19/20, 2010 before Julia Gillard became Prime Minister on June 24, 2010. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would easily win.
The latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll showed an ALP primary vote of 45.5% (up 7% since the telephone Morgan Poll of June 25-28, 2010 and up 4.5% since the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll of June 19/20, 2010) well ahead of the L-NP 38% (down 7.5%, and down 3%) with the Greens at 10.5% (up 1.5% and down 2%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 4.5% (down 1% and up 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen strongly to 131 (up 6pts from June 25-28) with 55.5% (up 1%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 24.5% (down 5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
Also good news for the Gillard Government is the latest June unemployment estimates. Roy Morgan’s June unemployment estimate (released on Monday July 5, 2010) shows Australian unemployment falling to 5.9% (down 1.0% in a month) to its lowest since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in October 2008. Yesterday’s ABS unemployment estimates, showing unemployment at 5.1% (down 0.1%), support the Roy Morgan figures released earlier in the week.
However, the latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekends of June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 fell slightly, down 1.1pts to 122.5.
PM Gillard prompts Gender “Voting Split”
|
Two-Party Preferred Result |
All
electors |
Analysis by Gender |
|
Men |
Women |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
55 |
49.5 |
60.5 |
|
L-NP |
45 |
50.5 |
39.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Interviewing conducted on the weekends of June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face).
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s Morgan Poll, taken primarily last weekend, shows new Prime Minister Julia Gillard creating a surge in the ALP primary vote (45.5%, up 7% since the telephone Morgan Poll conducted on June 25-28, 2010) translating into a strong Two-Party preferred lead for the ALP 55% (up 6%) cf. L-NP 45% (down 6%).
“Most importantly for the coming Federal Election campaign, today’s Morgan Poll shows a clear ‘gender split’ with Women clearly leaning towards the ALP (60.5%) cf. L-NP (39.5%) while Men are nearly evenly divided with the L-NP (50.5%) just ahead of the ALP (49.5%).
“This gender split creates the opportunity for a very interesting election campaign as Gillard attempts to increase her appeal to the male half of Australian electors whilst Opposition Leader Tony Abbott tries to achieve similar gains with Australia’s female electors.
“Gillard’s moves to ‘neutralise’ the issue of the Mining ‘Super Profits’ Tax by meeting extensively with Australia’s biggest miners, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata Australia, and agreeing changes with these miners that they find acceptable, ‘appears’ to have defused the issue for many. Stopping ‘damaging’ ads funded by mining companies has also given the Gillard Government space to tackle other electoral concerns.
“However, the ‘sleeper’ is in the mining State of Western Australia (where the latest result shows the L-NP — at 54% ahead of the ALP — 46%) and the mining seats in Queensland where smaller miners were not consulted, did not agree to the changes and continue to have large concerns about the implementation of what the Government now refers to as the ‘Minerals Resource Rent Tax.’”
*The Two-Party Preferred vote has been calculated based on how electors report they would allocate their second preferences: Greens (ALP — 81% : L-NP — 19%) and 'Others' (ALP — 28% : L-NP — 72%). At the last Federal Election 'Others' gave their second preferences to the L-NP (55%) and ALP (45%). If preferences were allocated the way they were at the last election the vote would be ALP — 56.5% cf. L-NP — 43.5%.
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of June 26/27, 2010 (299 electors) & July 3/4, 2010 (879 electors), with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,178 electors. Of all electors surveyed, a low 5% did not name a party.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
During the period:
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First#* |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
0 |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
0 |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
0 |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32 (2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5 (3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53 |
34 (3) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
31.5 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
45.5 |
38.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48 |
34.5 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37.5 (4) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50 |
37 (3) |
6.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
| |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
| |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
36.5 (3.5) |
10 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
36 (2) |
9.5 |
3 |
5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46 |
36 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
48 |
38 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
37.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
35.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
34.5 (2.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
35.5 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (4) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
36 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38 (4) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
39 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 (3) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
34 (2) |
9 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
37.5 (1.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
45 |
40.5 (4) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
43.5 |
39.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38 (3) |
7 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 (3.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
46 |
39 (2.5) |
8 |
1 |
6 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
35 (3) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
37.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
45.5 |
37.5 (3) |
11 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
34.5 (3) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
32.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
35.5 (2.5) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
46.5 |
37 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34.5 (3) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
32.5 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
42.5 |
41.5 (4) |
8 |
1 |
7 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
45 |
36.5 (4) |
9 |
3 |
6.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
35.5 (2) |
9 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47 |
35 (3.5) |
9.5 |
3 |
5.5 |
| |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
| |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
41 |
43 (3.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
42 |
41.5 (2) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
35.5 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
37 (2.5) |
10 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
43 |
39 (3) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
10 |
2 |
5 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
46 |
38 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
42 |
41 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45 |
37.5 (3) |
9 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
6 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44.5 |
37 (2) |
11 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
48 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43 |
37.5 (3) |
12 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44 |
40.5 (3.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43.5 |
40 (3) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
39.5 |
44.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
41 |
42.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
36 |
46 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
37.5 |
43 (3) |
12 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
42.5 |
41 (2) |
11 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
37.5 |
43 (3) |
11.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
42 |
41 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
40 |
41.5 (2) |
11 |
2.5 |
2 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
38 |
41 (1.5) |
13 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
41 |
41 (2.5) |
12.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| |
|
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
| |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
38.5 |
45.5 (4.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
38 (2) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
60 |
40 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
63 |
37 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
35 |
65.5 |
34.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
64 |
36 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
64 |
36 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59 |
41 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
62 |
38 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
63 |
37 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55 |
45 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of the Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
46 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
50 |
50 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
48 |
52 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
50 |
50 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52 |
48 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)* |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55 |
45 |
^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
*Julia Gillard’s rise to become the new Prime Minister necessitates a change in the reported two-party preferred figures to reflect how electors say they will vote.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
|
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
75 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
68 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
20.5 |
16 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
21 |
13.5 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
21 |
14.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
23.5 |
15 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
24 |
15 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
24.5 |
16 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
23 |
15 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
23.5 |
16 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
26.5 |
16 |
|
|
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
|
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
29.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
29 |
17 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
52 |
29 |
19 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58.5 |
22.5 |
19 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
29 |
13.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
25.5 |
16 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
26 |
14.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
22.5 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23 |
12 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
26.5 |
15 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63 |
24 |
13 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
19.5 |
14.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
64 |
24 |
12 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
20.5 |
14.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
68.5 |
18.5 |
13 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
22 |
12.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
24 |
10.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
25.5 |
12.5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
22.5 |
11 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
18 |
13 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
24 |
12.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26.5 |
12.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
15.5 |
13 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
18 |
12.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
16 |
13 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
76.5 |
12.5 |
11 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
74.5 |
16 |
9.5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
73 |
18 |
9 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
17.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18.5 |
11 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
72.5 |
15 |
12.5 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19 |
12 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
72 |
19 |
9 |
|
|
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
|
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
78 |
13 |
9 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
20.5 |
13 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
73.5 |
15.5 |
11 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
66 |
19 |
15 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66.5 |
23 |
10.5 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
65 |
24.5 |
10.5 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26 |
13 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
68 |
21 |
11 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
63 |
25 |
12 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
25 |
13.5 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
32 |
14 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
56 |
30 |
14 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 |
13.5 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55 |
29.5 |
15.5 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
56.5 |
28 |
15.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 |
15 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
49 |
33.5 |
17.5 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38.5 |
13 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 |
13 |
| |
| Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
| |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
55.5 |
28 |
16.5 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
62 |
27.5 |
10.5 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull) |
| |
July
1/2 |
June 27/28
& July 4/5 |
July 11/12
& 18/19 |
July 25/26
& Aug 1/2 |
Aug
5/6 |
Aug 8/9
& 15/16 |
Aug 22/23
& 29/30 |
Sep 5/6
& 12/13 |
Sep 19/20
& 26/27 |
Oct
7/8 |
Oct 3/4
& 10/11 |
Oct 17/18
& 24/25 |
Oct 31
& Nov 1 |
Nov
7/8 |
Nov
11/12 |
Nov
14/15 |
Nov
21/22 |
Nov
28/29 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
60 |
56.5 |
61 |
62.5 |
59 |
63 |
63 |
65 |
63.5 |
70 |
67 |
63 |
60 |
60 |
60.5 |
60 |
59.5 |
57.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
27.5 |
28 |
22.5 |
21 |
26 |
21.5 |
22.5 |
20.5 |
20 |
17.5 |
17 |
21.5 |
18.5 |
23.5 |
27 |
24 |
26 |
24 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
132.5 |
128.5 |
138.5 |
141.5 |
133 |
141.5 |
140.5 |
144.5 |
143.5 |
152.5 |
150 |
141.5 |
141.5 |
136.5 |
133.5 |
136 |
133.5 |
133.5 |
|
Can’t say |
12.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
16.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
15.5 |
21.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
14.5 |
18.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Dec
2/3 |
Dec
4-9 |
Dec 5/6
& 12/13 |
Dec 19/20
& Jan 2/3 |
Jan 13/14 |
Jan 9/10
& 16/17 |
Jan 23/24
& 30/31 |
Feb
10/11 |
Feb 6/7
& 13/14 |
Feb
20/21 |
Feb 27/28
& Mar 6/7 |
Mar 13/14
& 20/21 |
Mar 27/28
& Apr 3/4 |
Apr 10/11
& 17/18 |
Apr
24/25 |
| |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54 |
52.5 |
59.5 |
58.5 |
56.5 |
59.5 |
61 |
57.5 |
57.5 |
58.5 |
57 |
56 |
53 |
55 |
56.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
29.5 |
23 |
126 |
29 |
23 |
24 |
28.5 |
24 |
26.5 |
26 |
25 |
30 |
28.5 |
30 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
121 |
123 |
136.5 |
132.5 |
127.5 |
136.5 |
137 |
129 |
133.5 |
132 |
131 |
131 |
123 |
126.5 |
126.5 |
|
Can’t say |
13 |
18 |
17.5 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
15 |
14 |
18.5 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Tony Abbott) |
| |
May
1/2 |
May
4/5 |
May
8/9 |
May
12/13 |
May
15/16 |
May
22/23 |
May
26/27 |
May
29/30 |
June
5/6 |
June
12/13 |
June
19/20 |
June
25-28 |
June 26/27
& July 3/4 |
|
|
|
| |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
|
|
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Right direction |
55 |
55.5 |
47 |
56 |
52 |
53 |
45.5 |
46.5 |
51 |
50 |
50 |
54.5 |
55.5 |
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
32 |
34 |
32.5 |
32 |
31.5 |
38.5 |
35 |
29.5 |
32 |
33 |
29.5 |
24.5 |
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
126.5 |
123.5 |
113 |
123.5 |
120 |
121.5 |
107 |
111.5 |
121.5 |
118 |
117 |
125 |
131 |
|
|
|
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
12.5 |
19 |
11.5 |
16 |
15.5 |
16 |
18.5 |
19.5 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
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