ALP 54.5% (down 0.5%) dips but would win Federal Election over L-NP 45.5% (up 0.5%)
| Finding No. 4533 -
This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of July 10/11, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 824 electors. Of all electors surveyed, a low 5% did not name a party.:
July 16, 2010 |
In mid July, just 2 weeks into Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s new Government, the latest Morgan Poll shows the ALP at 54.5% and the L-NP at 45.5% on a Two-Party preferred basis. ALP support is down 0.5% since the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win.
The latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll shows an ALP primary vote of 40.5% (down 5% since the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll of June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010), just behind the L-NP 41% (up 3%) with the Greens at 12%, (up 1.5%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 5% (up 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has remained at 131, with 54.5% (down 1%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 23.5% (down 1%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of July 10/11, 2010 rose strongly, up 3.4pts to 125.9.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP (54.5%, down 0.5%) maintaining a strong Two-Party preferred lead over the L-NP (45.5%, up 0.5%) — but a large drop in the ALP Primary vote (40.5%, down 5%) leaves the Gillard Government heavily reliant on Greens (12%, up 1.5%) preferences (now supporting the ALP 80% cf. L-NP 20% - the same as the 2007 Federal Election) if the ALP is to win this year’s Federal Election.
“The L-NP (41%, up 3%) has edged just ahead of the ALP on Primary vote and is clearly maintaining a strong challenge to the Government despite new Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s efforts to ‘solve’ some of the issues that former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was unable to resolve.
“Gillard’s proposed East Timor refugee processing centre — announced in the days before this Morgan Poll was conducted — appears to have driven the increase in the Greens vote and increased ALP reliance on Greens preferences while not winning over voters currently supporting the L-NP. The apparent East Timorese rejection of the plan is a blow to the Prime Minister.
“The issue which remains a sleeper for Gillard is the ‘Minerals Resources Rent Tax’ (MRRT). The Greens want at least the original ‘40%’ version of the Tax — the Mining ‘Super Profits’ Tax — which wins support in inner-urban seats in the cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, whilst the Opposition vow to scrap the proposed tax in any form — a vote-winner in the mining State of Western Australia and also the key marginal mining seats in Queensland.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of July 10/11, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 824 electors. Of all electors surveyed, a low 5% did not name a party.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
During the period:
- Gillard announces plan to process asylum seekers in East Timor
Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced a plan to assess asylum claims in East Timor in a reprisal of the Howard Government’s so-called “Pacific Solution.”
- Reserve Bank of Australia leaves interest rates on hold
The Reserve Bank of Australia has left official interest rates on hold at 4.5 percent for the second month in a row as Europe's debt crisis continues to cloud the global economy.
- Emission trading still off agenda until 2013
Prime Minister Julia Gillard says she will not revive the Government's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) until at least 2013.
- Treasury set for another grilling on Mining Tax
Opposition Senators are hoping to once again grill the head of Federal Treasury over the Government's Mining Tax (RSPT) and now (MRRT).
- Gillard loses second key minister
Prime Minister Julia Gillard's frontbench team has been dealt a major blow, with Defence Minister John Faulkner revealing that he will move to the backbench after the forthcoming Federal Election.
- Dynamic Dutch fly into FIFA World Cup final
The Netherlands have qualified for their first World Cup final in 32 years after edging out Uruguay 3-2 in their semi-final at the Green Point Stadium in Cape Town.
- Spaniards power into FIFA World Cup final
European champion Spain will face off against the Netherlands for the World Cup title after reaching its maiden final with a 1-0 defeat of Germany at the Moses Mahbida Stadium in Durban.
- General Motors Holden (GMH) recalls more than 34,000 utes
Holden has announced a recall of more than 34,000 utes, saying it may need to repair a faulty tailgate that can spring open when the vehicle is moving.
- 10 more fires linked to Government’s insulation scheme
The Federal Government says 189 house fires have now been linked to its home insulation scheme.
- Government urged to boost gas, oil reserves
Australia's peak petroleum industry body will today urge the Federal Government to boost oil and gas exploration after the changes to the resources tax, formerly the RSPT — now the MRRT.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| |
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First#* |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
0 |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
0 |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
0 |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.9) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32 (2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5 (3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53 |
34 (3) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
31.5 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
45.5 |
38.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48 |
34.5 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37.5 (4) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50 |
37 (3) |
6.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
| |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
| |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
36.5 (3.5) |
10 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
46.5 |
36 (2) |
9.5 |
3 |
5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46 |
36 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
48 |
38 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
37.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
35.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
34.5 (2.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
35.5 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (4) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
36 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38 (4) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
39 (3) |
6 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 (3) |
8 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50 |
34 (2) |
9 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
37.5 (1.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
45 |
40.5 (4) |
7.5 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
43.5 |
39.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38 (3) |
7 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 (3.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
46 |
39 (2.5) |
8 |
1 |
6 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
35 (3) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
37.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
34 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
45.5 |
37.5 (3) |
11 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
34.5 (3) |
9.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
32.5 (3.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
35.5 (2.5) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
46.5 |
37 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34.5 (3) |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
51 |
32.5 (2.5) |
9.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
46.5 |
38.5 (3) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
42.5 |
41.5 (4) |
8 |
1 |
7 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
45 |
36.5 (4) |
9 |
3 |
6.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
48 |
35.5 (2) |
9 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
47 |
35 (3.5) |
9.5 |
3 |
5.5 |
| |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
| |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
41 |
43 (3.5) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
42 |
41.5 (2) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
49 |
35.5 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
37 (2.5) |
10 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
43 |
39 (3) |
9.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
47.5 |
35.5 (3.5) |
10 |
2 |
5 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
46 |
38 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
42 |
41 (4.5) |
10.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45 |
37.5 (3) |
9 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38.5 (2.5) |
8.5 |
2 |
6 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44.5 |
37 (2) |
11 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
48 |
36.5 (2) |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43 |
37.5 (3) |
12 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
44 |
40.5 (3.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
43.5 |
40 (3) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
39.5 |
44.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
41 |
42.5 (3.5) |
9 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
36 |
46 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
37.5 |
43 (3) |
12 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
42.5 |
41 (2) |
11 |
2 |
3.5 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
37.5 |
43 (3) |
11.5 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
42 |
41 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
40 |
41.5 (2) |
11 |
2.5 |
2 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
38 |
41 (1.5) |
13 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
41 |
41 (2.5) |
12.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| |
|
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
| |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
38.5 |
45.5 (4.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
38 (2) |
10.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face) |
40.5 |
41 (3.5) |
12 |
1.5 |
5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3^, 1998 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
60 |
40 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
63 |
37 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
35 |
65.5 |
34.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
64 |
36 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
64 |
36 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59 |
41 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
62 |
38 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
62 |
38 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
59 |
41 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
63 |
37 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
61 |
39 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55 |
45 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of the Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56 |
44 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
43.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
58 |
42 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
46 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
50 |
50 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
48 |
52 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50 |
50 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
50 |
50 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52 |
48 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
|
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)* |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
46.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
*Julia Gillard’s rise to become the new Prime Minister necessitates a change in the reported two-party preferred figures to reflect how electors say they will vote.
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
|
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
75 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
68 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
20.5 |
16 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
21 |
13.5 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
21 |
14.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
23.5 |
15 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
24 |
15 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
24.5 |
16 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
23 |
15 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
23.5 |
16 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
26.5 |
16 |
|
|
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008 |
|
|
|
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
29.5 |
19.5 |
|
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
29 |
17 |
|
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone) |
52 |
29 |
19 |
|
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
|
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone) |
58.5 |
22.5 |
19 |
|
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
29 |
13.5 |
|
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
25.5 |
16 |
|
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
26 |
14.5 |
|
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
22.5 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23 |
12 |
|
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
58.5 |
26.5 |
15 |
|
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63 |
24 |
13 |
|
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
66 |
19.5 |
14.5 |
|
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
21 |
15.5 |
|
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
64 |
24 |
12 |
|
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65 |
20.5 |
14.5 |
|
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face) |
68.5 |
18.5 |
13 |
|
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
22 |
12.5 |
|
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
24 |
10.5 |
|
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face) |
62 |
25.5 |
12.5 |
|
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
22.5 |
11 |
|
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone) |
69 |
18 |
13 |
|
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
24 |
12.5 |
|
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26.5 |
12.5 |
|
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
15.5 |
13 |
|
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
18 |
12.5 |
|
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
|
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
|
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone) |
71.5 |
14 |
14.5 |
|
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
16 |
13 |
|
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
17 |
11.5 |
|
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone) |
76.5 |
12.5 |
11 |
|
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face) |
74.5 |
16 |
9.5 |
|
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face) |
73 |
18 |
9 |
|
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face) |
71 |
17.5 |
11.5 |
|
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18.5 |
11 |
|
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone) |
72.5 |
15 |
12.5 |
|
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face) |
67.5 |
21 |
11.5 |
|
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face) |
69 |
19 |
12 |
|
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face) |
72 |
19 |
9 |
|
|
|
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009 |
|
|
|
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone) |
78 |
13 |
9 |
|
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone) |
66.5 |
20.5 |
13 |
|
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
18 |
11.5 |
|
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone) |
73.5 |
15.5 |
11 |
|
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face) |
70 |
19 |
11 |
|
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22.5 |
11.5 |
|
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone) |
66 |
19 |
15 |
|
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face) |
66.5 |
23 |
10.5 |
|
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
65 |
24.5 |
10.5 |
|
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61 |
26 |
13 |
|
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face) |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
68 |
21 |
11 |
|
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face) |
63 |
25 |
12 |
|
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
25 |
13.5 |
|
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face) |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
|
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone) |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
|
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face) |
54 |
32 |
14 |
|
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone) |
56 |
30 |
14 |
|
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53 |
33.5 |
13.5 |
|
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face) |
55 |
29.5 |
15.5 |
|
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone) |
56.5 |
28 |
15.5 |
|
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33.5 |
15 |
|
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face) |
49 |
33.5 |
17.5 |
|
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
38.5 |
13 |
|
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face) |
46 |
41 |
13 |
| |
| Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010 |
| |
|
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone) |
55.5 |
28 |
16.5 |
|
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face) |
62 |
27.5 |
10.5 |
|
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
30 |
16.5 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Malcolm Turnbull) |
| |
July
1/2 |
June 27/28
& July 4/5 |
July 11/12
& 18/19 |
July 25/26
& Aug 1/2 |
Aug
5/6 |
Aug 8/9
& 15/16 |
Aug 22/23
& 29/30 |
Sep 5/6
& 12/13 |
Sep 19/20
& 26/27 |
Oct
7/8 |
Oct 3/4
& 10/11 |
Oct 17/18
& 24/25 |
Oct 31
& Nov 1 |
Nov
7/8 |
Nov
11/12 |
Nov
14/15 |
Nov
21/22 |
Nov
28/29 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
60 |
56.5 |
61 |
62.5 |
59 |
63 |
63 |
65 |
63.5 |
70 |
67 |
63 |
60 |
60 |
60.5 |
60 |
59.5 |
57.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
27.5 |
28 |
22.5 |
21 |
26 |
21.5 |
22.5 |
20.5 |
20 |
17.5 |
17 |
21.5 |
18.5 |
23.5 |
27 |
24 |
26 |
24 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
132.5 |
128.5 |
138.5 |
141.5 |
133 |
141.5 |
140.5 |
144.5 |
143.5 |
152.5 |
150 |
141.5 |
141.5 |
136.5 |
133.5 |
136 |
133.5 |
133.5 |
|
Can’t say |
12.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
16.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
15.5 |
21.5 |
16.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
14.5 |
18.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Tony Abbott) |
| |
Dec
2/3 |
Dec
4-9 |
Dec 5/6
& 12/13 |
Dec 19/20
& Jan 2/3 |
Jan 13/14 |
Jan 9/10
& 16/17 |
Jan 23/24
& 30/31 |
Feb
10/11 |
Feb 6/7
& 13/14 |
Feb
20/21 |
Feb 27/28
& Mar 6/7 |
Mar 13/14
& 20/21 |
Mar 27/28
& Apr 3/4 |
Apr 10/11
& 17/18 |
Apr
24/25 |
| |
Phone |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
54 |
52.5 |
59.5 |
58.5 |
56.5 |
59.5 |
61 |
57.5 |
57.5 |
58.5 |
57 |
56 |
53 |
55 |
56.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
29.5 |
23 |
126 |
29 |
23 |
24 |
28.5 |
24 |
26.5 |
26 |
25 |
30 |
28.5 |
30 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
121 |
123 |
136.5 |
132.5 |
127.5 |
136.5 |
137 |
129 |
133.5 |
132 |
131 |
131 |
123 |
126.5 |
126.5 |
|
Can’t say |
13 |
18 |
17.5 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
15 |
14 |
18.5 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Tony Abbott) |
| |
May
1/2 |
May
4/5 |
May
8/9 |
May
12/13 |
May
15/16 |
May
22/23 |
May
26/27 |
May
29/30 |
June
5/6 |
June
12/13 |
June
19/20 |
June
25-28 |
June 26/27
& July 3/4 |
July
10/11 |
|
|
| |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Right direction |
55 |
55.5 |
47 |
56 |
52 |
53 |
45.5 |
46.5 |
51 |
50 |
50 |
54.5 |
55.5 |
54.5 |
|
|
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
32 |
34 |
32.5 |
32 |
31.5 |
38.5 |
35 |
29.5 |
32 |
33 |
29.5 |
24.5 |
23.5 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
126.5 |
123.5 |
113 |
123.5 |
120 |
121.5 |
107 |
111.5 |
121.5 |
118 |
117 |
125 |
131 |
131 |
|
|
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
12.5 |
19 |
11.5 |
16 |
15.5 |
16 |
18.5 |
19.5 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
20 |
22 |
|
|
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
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