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Julia Gillard has rejected the drive for a bigger Australia instead talking about wanting a more sustainable Australia — sharing the view of most Australians. The majority of electors — 78% — want to aim for a population of less than 35 million by 2040 according to a special telephone Morgan Poll on immigration and population conducted over the last two nights, July 20/21, 2010.

However immigration per se is not the problem in the minds of the Australian electorate — the majority (58%) being comfortable with immigration remaining the same (47%) or increasing (11%) while 40% want immigration levels reduced and just 2% can’t say. Importantly, more Australian electors believe immigration has a positive effect on Australia (33%) than a negative effect (30%) while 21% believe immigration has little effect and 16% can’t say.

Not surprisingly, the vast majority of Australian electors support both Skilled migrant immigration (88%) and Family reunion migration (75%).

However, given the broadly negative debate about Muslims and Asylum seekers — it is perhaps surprising that a majority of Australian electors support both Muslim immigration (54% support vs. 35% opposed) and Asylum seeker immigration (52% support vs. 39% opposed).

However, a political divide emerges for these two immigrant categories — whereby ALP and Greens supporters are in favour, L-NP supporters on average oppose both Muslim and Asylum seeker immigration.

On the question of ‘Boat People’ the majority of Australians (64%) believe asylum seekers arriving by boat should be ‘returned and told to apply through normal refugee channels’ — only 24% want ‘boat people’ to be allowed to apply for immigration as now. 75% of L-NP voters want the ‘boat people’ returned as do 56% of ALP voters and 50% of Greens voters.

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite the recent political debate about ‘boat people’ and discussion over the Pacific Solution; and the debate over immigration levels and crowding, Australian views haven’t changed in the last four months since March 2010.

“In fact, what is surprising is that despite the debate about immigration levels in Australia, if immigration continues at the levels of recent years, when combined with the natural increase Australia’s population would exceed 35 million by 2040 in any case.”

These are the main insights from the special Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted on the evenings of July 20/21, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 719 men and women electors aged 18 or over.

Immigration Levels

When Australians were asked: “Over the last year (2008/09) about 170,000 immigrants came to Australia. Do you think the number of people coming here to live permanently should be increased, or reduced, or remain about the same?”

Only 11% of Australians said that immigration should be ‘increased,’ while 40% say it should be ‘reduced’ and 47% say it should ‘remain about the same.’ Only 4% of Australians can’t say.

	Electors
	July 1952*	July 1955*	May 1956*	Jan 1959*	Feb 1969*	Oct 1970*	March 2010	July 2010
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Remain about the same	29	39	40	33	45	45	45	47
Increased	14	10	8	26	19	12	9	11
Remain the same or Increased	43	49	48	59	64	57	54	58
Reduced	52	45	45	34	26	38	41	40
Can’t say	5	6	7	7	10	5	5	2
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* In 1952 immigration level asked about was not stated; 1955 & 1956 — 125,000; 1958 — 100,000; 1969 — 160,000; 1970 — 180,000.

	Electors	Analysis by Voting Intention
	July 2010	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Remain about the same	47	50	44	54	54	44	23
Increased	11	13	8	18	-	3	11
Remain the same or Increased	58	63	52	72	54	47	34
Reduced	40	35	45	28	46	51	58
Can’t say	2	2	3	-	-	2	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 — 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over).

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Immigrants effect on Australian Life

Respondents were then asked: “Judging by what you see and hear, do you think immigrants are changing Australia’s culture and way of life — or having little effect.”

Respondents who responded that immigrants are changing us were then asked: “Do you think immigrants are changing Australia’s culture and way of life for better or for worse?”

	Electors		Analysis by Voting Intention
	March 2010	July 2010	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Better	38	33	39	24	53	5	26	31
Worse	34	30	23	40	17	51	38	32
Can’t say (Better or Worse)	13	13	11	15	7	16	9	22
They’re changing us	85	76	73	79	77	72	73	85
Having little effect	14	21	26	18	20	21	23	9
Can’t say (Immigrants changing us)	1	3	1	3	3	7	4	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Australian Population Size

Respondents were then asked: “Australia’s population has increased by 5 million from 17 million to 22 million over the last 20 years. What population do you think we should aim to have in Australia in 30 years — that is, by 2040?”

	Electors		Analysis by Voting Intention
	March 2010	July 2010	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Under 22 million	6	6	6	5	8	23	2	9
22 — Under 25 million	20	18	16	19	26	13	20	13
25 — Under 30 million	35	32	32	35	18	38	38	29
30 — Under 35 million	21	22	22	20	29	7	17	25
Total under 35 million	82	78	76	79	81	81	77	76
35 million or more	9	13	15	11	12	13	13	6
Can’t say	9	9	9	10	7	6	10	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Types of Immigration to Australia

Respondents were then asked: “Please say whether you support or oppose (Muslim / Asylum seeker/ Skilled migrant/ Family reunion) immigration?”

Looking at different types of immigration shows that more Australians support, than oppose, varying types of immigration. When asked “Please say whether you support or oppose (insert type) of immigration” a majority of Australians supported each type of immigration.

The strongest support was for skilled immigration with 88% of Australian electors supporting skilled immigration compared to only 10% that oppose and 2% that can’t say. Family reunion immigration is also strongly supported with 75% support compared to 16% that oppose and 9% that can’t say.

Opinion was more divided — but still positive — for Muslim immigration with 54% of Australian electors supporting Muslim immigration compared to 35% that oppose and 11% that can’t say and Asylum seeker immigration with 52% supporting compared to 39% that are opposed and 9% that can’t say.

Skilled migrant immigration

	Electors		Analysis by Voting Intention
	March 2010	July 2010	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	87	88	89	89	87	81	92	75
Oppose	11	10	8	9	13	19	8	22
Can’t say	2	2	3	2	-	-	-	3
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Family reunion immigration

	Electors		Analysis by Voting Intention
	March 2010	July 2010	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	77	75	79	71	79	100	70	59
Oppose	18	16	13	19	17	-	28	22
Can’t say	5	9	8	10	4	-	2	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Muslim immigration

	Electors		Analysis by Voting Intention
	March 2010	July 2010	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	55	54	63	40	76	28	58	44
Oppose	36	35	25	49	21	60	36	35
Can’t say	9	11	12	11	3	12	6	21
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Asylum seeker immigration

	Electors		Analysis by Voting Intention
	March 2010	July 2010	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Support	49	52	61	40	74	52	44	23
Oppose	41	39	30	51	25	48	39	48
Can’t say	10	9	9	9	1	-	17	29
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Attitudes to Immigration of ‘Boat People’

Respondents were then asked: “Should asylum seekers arriving by boat be allowed to apply for immigration as now, or should they all be returned and told to apply through normal refugee channels?”

	Electors		Analysis by Voting Intention
	March 2010	July 2010	ALP	L-NP	Greens	FF#	Other#	Can’t Say#
	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
Be returned and apply through normal refugee channels	64	64	56	75	50	67	72	70
As now	26	26	33	15	42	33	21	13
Other	5	5	5	5	7	-	3	8
Can’t say	5	5	6	5	1	-	4	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

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