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New Prime Minister Julia Gillard (58%, up 9% since June 25-28, 2010) is clearly preferred over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (29%, down 5%) as the ‘Better Prime Minister’ by Australian electors according to this special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the past two days, July 20-21, 2010.

Analysis by gender shows Australian women clearly prefer Gillard (62%, up 8%) over Abbott (22%, down 6%), while amongst men Gillard (54%, up 11%) is preferred over Abbott (36%, down 4%) as Better PM.

Of Australian electors 58%, (up 18%)approve of the way Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister — this is up 22% up on Kevin Rudd’s approval for May 12/13, 2010. Now 26% (up 2%) disapprove of Julia Gillard and 16% (down 20%) can’t say.

Analysis by gender shows Australian women giving Gillard higher approval (63%, up 19%) than men (52%, up 15%) for her handling of the job as Prime Minister and lower disapproval (22%, unchanged) compared to men (30%, up 4%).

Approval of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is 42%, (down 6%) and disapproval of Abbott is 48%, (up 7%) and 10% (down 1%) of electors can’t say.

Analysis by gender again shows a clear split with a majority of Australian men (50%, down 3%) approving of Abbott’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader compared to 43%, (up 5%) that disapprove whilst Australian women are more likely to disapprove of Abbott’s job performance — 36%, (down 8% approve and 52, (up 8%) disapprove.

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott

	Rudd v Turnbull					Rudd v Abbott		Gillard v Abbott
	Dec 17/18, 2008	May 20/21, 2009	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	May 4/5, 2010	May 12/13, 2010	June 25-28, 2010	July 20/21 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	69	60.5	70	69	60	53	49	49	58
Abbott	20	26.5	20	18	25	32	37	34	29
Gillard lead	49	34	50	51	35	21	12	15	29
Other / Can’t say	11	13	10	13	15	15	14	17	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

Gary Morgan says:

“Prime Minister Julia Gillard (58%, up 9% since June 25-28, 2010) has substantially increased her lead as the ‘Better PM’ over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (29%, down 9%) over the three weeks since she took the Prime Ministership in a clean coup against former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

“Gillard’s handling of the job has also risen substantially in the eyes of electors with 58% (up 18%) approving of Gillard’s handling of the job as Prime Minister compared to only 26% (up 2%) that disapprove, while those that can’t say has fallen significantly (16%, down 20%).

“The news is not so good for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott with a falling 42% (down 6%) of Australians approving of his handling of the job as Opposition Leader compared to 48% (up 7%) that disapprove and only 10% (down 1%) that can’t say.

“With the first week of the Federal Election campaign focusing heavily on the negatives of the Leaders special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research conducted with this poll reveals what worries electors don’t like about both leaders.

“For Gillard — electors are worried about how she got the job saying such things as she’s “Untrustworthy,” and she “Stabs people in the back,” “She’s sneaky,” and “I don’t approve of how she came into power,” and “She’ hasn’t been open with the public and hasn’t even told us how she ousted Kevin Rudd,” and also “She’s an atheist leader and I think she’s a communist,” - “An extreme socialist.”

“Electors who disapprove of Tony Abbott say a range of things that worry them about the Opposition Leader, including — “He’s extreme to the right,” and “He’s narrow-minded and his views are based on Christian principles only,” and that “He’s an arrogant Catholic man telling women what to do,” and that he’s “Bigoted and right-wing,” and a “Self horn-blowing politician.”

“This special qualitative research shows there are clearly many electors out there with strong views against both of the leaders heading towards the Federal Election next month.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two days July 20-21, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 719 electors.

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	July 20/21, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	58	92	15	56	82	36	53
Abbott	29	3	72	30	5	43	13
Gillard lead	29	89	(57)	26	77	(7)	40
Other / Neither	13	5	13	14	13	21	34
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	July 20/21, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	58	54	62	64	66	59	53
Abbott	29	36	22	28	20	29	32
Gillard lead	29	18	40	36	46	30	21
Other / Neither	13	10	16	8	14	12	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research

Electors who disapproved of Prime Minister Julia Gillard were asked: “What worries you about Julia Gillard?”

“She’s untrustworthy and she’s not capable of representing Australians at home and overseas.”

“Well, I’m worried about how she took over Kevin Rudd’s job.”

“She’s sneaky.”

“I don’t think she’s qualified, the way she got the job.”

“She’s not a very trusting politician.”

“The fact she ousted her Prime Minister.”

“She was not actually elected.”

“She’s dishonest and just doing the same thing as Kevin Rudd.”

“I don’t approve of how she came into power.”

“I just didn’t like the way she came into office.”

“She stabbed people in the back to get into power.”

“She was supposed to be Rudd’s assistant and she turned him down and threw him out.”

Electors who disapproved of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott were asked: “What worries you about Tony Abbott?”

“His religious beliefs.”

“He’s got crazy eyes.”

“He’s extreme to the right.”

“He’s an egotistical self serving horn-blowing politician and arrogant.”

“His anti-abortion stance and he’s too much of a catholic fundamentalist.”

“Look, I’m a Liberal voter, but I don’t like him as he’s an arrogant Catholic man telling women what to do.”

“He’s a loose cannon and very slippery when you listen to him talking. I just don’t trust him.”

“I don’t hear anything sensible coming out of his mouth.”

“His inconsistencies.”

“He talks too much and there’s no action.”

“He has no policies, no substantial beneficial policies.”

Approval of Leaders — Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Julia Gillard (Formerly Kevin Rudd)

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”

	Prime Minister Rudd						Prime Minister Gillard
	July 1/2, 2009	Oct 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	May 4/5, 2010	May 12/13, 2010	June 25-28, 2010	July 20/21, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	63	66	53	50	42	36	40	58
Disapprove	29	24	36	35	49	55	24	26
Approve - Disapprove	34	42	17	15	(7)	(19)	16	32
Can’t say	8	10	11	15	9	9	36	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	July 20/21, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	58	84	30	25	69	48	40
Disapprove	26	6	52	34	19	31	30
Approve - Disapprove	32	78	(22)	(9)	50	17	10
Can’t say	16	10	18	41	12	21	30
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 20/21, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	58	52	63	63	59	58	55
Disapprove	26	30	22	22	22	27	29
Approve - Disapprove	32	22	41	41	37	31	26
Can’t say	16	18	15	15	19	15	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader	Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader
	July 1/2, 2009	Oct. 7/8, 2009	Dec 2/3, 2009	Jan 13/14, 2010	May 4/5, 2010	May 12/13, 2010	June 25-28, 2010	July 20/21, 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	25	29	34	41	40.5	44	48	42
Disapprove	62.5	56	27	32	41.5	46	41	48
Approve - Disapprove	(37.5)	(27)	7	9	(1)	(2)	7	(6)
Can’t say	12.5	15	39	27	18	10	11	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	July 20/21, 2010	ALP	Lib	Nat#	The Greens	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	42	22	74	58	25	39	38
Disapprove	48	70	16	20	73	40	49
Approve - Disapprove	(6)	(48)	58	38	(48)	(1)	(11)
Can’t say	10	8	10	22	2	21	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	July 20/21, 2010	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	42	50	36	46	39	41	43
Disapprove	48	43	52	42	51	49	47
Approve - Disapprove	(6)	7	(16)	4	(12)	(8)	(4)
Can’t say	10	7	12	12	10	10	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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